Bucks vs. Cavaliers Odds & Betting Predictions - November 18, 2025

@JoeDellera ⭐️ https://myaction.app/nTNyqPaBnYb

We were on the under 16.5 PRA in the last matchup vs. MIL and the process was right. This is a classic "box score doesn’t tell the story" spot. Merrill finished with 17 points, but 14 came in the first half before Milwaukee adjusted, and three of those came from a tech free throw and a non-shooting foul in the bonus. In the second half, the Bucks tightened up, holding him to just a 13 percent usage rate and 3 points over his final 15 minutes. He also carries foul-risk guarding Giannis, and Dean Wade has a real chance to close over him for defensive purposes. On the Bucks’ side, AJ Green, Cole Anthony, and Gary Trent Jr. all grade as elite spot-up defenders, and Milwaukee ranks in the 81st percentile defending that play type, which makes up 43 percent of Merrill’s scoring. #PlayerProps

#⭐️⭐️ Look, I don’t know why, but Cleveland just hasn’t been right. It’s not injuries: with Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell in the lineup, the Cavs are 4-8 ATS this season. The Bucks are shooting the lights out right now, No.1 in effective field goal percentage, shooting 73 percent at the rim and 49 percent from the corners. That won’t hold over the long haul, but they’re facing a Cavs team that is 19th in opponent eFG%. The Cavaliers under Atkinson are just 5-5 in division games. That may not sound like a meaningful stat, but these are typically competitive games in this division, in particular, with a small travel slate. The Cavs aren’t top ten in halfcourt offense or defense, transition offense or defense. The only category statistically outside of overall offense and defense schedule-adjust that they’re really great in is turnover rate. I make this Cavs -5.1 with preseason priors baked in, -2.1 based on in-season numbers. Milwaukee is coming off a blowout loss at home to the Lakers. I like the spot, I like the number, I like the matchup.

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