Pelicans vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - February 4, 2025

There's only been one games this season where CJ/Zion were both active and BI/Murray were out ... CJ scored 9 PTS and went 3-13 in just 23 MIN. It was an outlier game for CJ and I think we're getting a slight discount because of it. Overall on the season, he's covered this line in 21/36 (58%) - AVG 21.86 PTS and 18.4 FGA. All of those games were with a mix of different lineups, so we don't have data to go off from this season w/ just CJ/Zion and w/o BI/Murray. He went over this line in 12/14 last season w/ Zion and w/o BI when playing 25+ MIN (Murray obviously out for all) - AVG 26.5 PTS and 20.8 FGA. In the 14 games above, Trey was active for 12 of them and CJ took 17+ FGA in all 14/14. When he takes 15+ shots in a game, he's over this line in 20/28 games (71.4%). DEN allow the 10th highest pullup FREQ% (26.5%) and over the last month they're allowing the 3rd highest pullup FREQ% (27.6%). This season he's over in 5/10 vs. the T10 in pullup FREQ% but every game involved some combo of Zion/BI/Murray. He's over in 2/4 vs. the T10 w/ Zion - 20, 27, 5, 13 PTS (17, 21, 14, 15 FGA). The two games he went over coincidentally were two games Murray was out (BI active). CJ see's a +3.09% USG% increase when Murray is off the floor (29.02%) and a +5.37 PTS/100 increase when Murray is off the floor - PTS/100 increase is the biggest among NOP's starting five. In games CJ has had a 25%+ USG and played 25+ MIN, he's over this line in 18/24. He's also played DEN once already this season (Murray active and Zion/BI out) and scored 24 PTS on 21 FGA. The closest comparison to his USG/volume are the games when both BI/Zion were out and Murray was active. Zion is also most likely still limited in some capacity.

FanDuel

FD

Sandy

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