Baylor vs BYU Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 154.5 -115o / -105u | +155 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 154.5 -115o / -105u | -190 |
In a matchup between top-25 brutes, BYU returns to the friendly confines of the Marriott Center looking to avenge its loss to Baylor. That game was early on in Big 12 play and was a tight-knit affair until the Bears pulled away late.
These are two teams trending in opposite directions, with BYU coming off its worst loss of the season while the regression monster is potentially coming for Baylor.
Here's Baylor vs. BYU odds and a pick for Tuesday.
Baylor Bears
The red-hot Bears look to continue their winning ways on Tuesday. Baylor has won five of its last six, riding offense towards consistent success.
The Bears rank fourth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and are the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the country.
Four different players are shooting at least 40% from the perimeter, including Jalen Bridges, who's seen an eight percent jump from last season. Even RayJ Dennis has seen a significant boost from his mid-major days.
Negative regression will likely come for Baylor, given its sustained excellence from the perimeter. Just under 23% of their 3s are open, meaning that the Bears have excelled even in traffic.
This is a physical Baylor team that ranks inside the top 25 in both offensive rebounding and free-throw rate. The Bears are best at attacking downhill and using freshman Yves Missi in the pick-and-roll.
It should be noted that Langston Love hasn't played in the last three games and remains day-to-day, per head coach Scott Drew. He averages 11.5 points per game and is shooting a blistering 49.3% from 3.
In their previous matchup with BYU, the Bears shot 43.5% from the perimeter and attempted 28 free throws. They were able to force turnovers and hold long possessions, though their biggest issues came on the defensive end.
That’s where Baylor is weakest. The Bears are 75th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, ranking outside the top 240 in 2-point defense. There’s not one area where Baylor excels. This defense pushes out on the perimeter and tries to funnel opponents in the mid-range.
Missi is a great rim protector and is a deterrent for opponents. He ranks sixth in block rate in Big 12 play and leads the team in rebounds per game (5.6).
The Bears rank 221st in catch-and-shoot 3s and 250th off-the-dribble 3s, per ShotQuality. While they allow just 18% of 3s to be open (68th), opponents have taken advantage of their inefficiencies.
BYU Cougars
The analytic darlings of the preseason, BYU finished non-conference play with a sparkling 12-1 record. But Year 1 of the Big 12 has been a rollercoaster for the Cougars, who enter Tuesday at .500.
This is an important game for BYU, as it ranks last in momentum rating, per Haslametrics. A loss at Oklahoma State was the team’s worst game of the season.
For what it’s worth, the Cougars rank 25th in home-court advantage, per KenPom.
If you love run-and-gun, fast-paced offenses that light it up from the perimeter, BYU is for you. The Cougars aren’t shy and take over half their shots from 3. Three different players shoot at least 37.5% from deep, and that doesn’t even include leading scorer Jaxson Robinson.
Mark Pope has himself an extremely balanced roster with plenty of familiarity. BYU ranks inside the top 30 in minutes continuity, with just Aly Khalifa (Charlotte transfer) not being on the team last season.
This is a tough offense to stop because nearly every player can stretch the floor. But this is also a team that ranks inside the top 10 in 2-point% and doesn't turn it over.
BYU can hunt for its favorite matchups and create plenty of high-percentage looks inside or open 3s through the pick-and-roll.
Defensively, this is not a team that will impose on you physically and force turnovers. But the Cougs don’t give up open 3s and play you tightly throughout. Just 17.3% of all shots from 3 are open, per ShotQuality. They're just inside the top 100 in 2-point defense, and they struggle in transition (313th).
Baylor vs. BYU
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a pure buy-low, sell-high spot on Tuesday. Baylor has been riding high with its 3-point shooting and draws a BYU defense that not only guards the perimeter well, but funnels opponents inside. Not to mention Love's status is up in the air for a not-so-deep Baylor rotation.
This time around, I'm not expecting the Bears to shoot better from 3 (43%) than inside the arc (42.5%), and I believe in BYU's offense to take advantage of the Bears' inefficiencies, specifically on the perimeter.
Baylor's weakness on the road — paired with a revenge-driven BYU — is the perfect recipe for a home win in Provo on Tuesday.
I'm expecting a much more efficient night from the Cougars in this rematch. They'll come out fired up.
