College basketball, once again, takes center stage on Saturday as No. 2 Houston takes on No. 11 Baylor, No. 10 UNC travels to Virginia and No. 13 Alabama clashes with No. 17 Kentucky at Rupp Arena.
With that in mind, below, we have college basketball best bets and our staff's top picks for Saturday.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Duke vs. Wake Forest
By D.J. James
Wake Forest is 11-6 against the spread at home and has a key ACC matchup with Duke on Saturday.
The Blue Devils are running white hot at the moment with five straight wins, while the Deacons are coming off of a win over Pitt but lost the prior two games at Virginia and at Duke.
However, in that Duke game, Wake played the Blue Devils close, except for the first 10 minutes.
Duke’s defense has shown some sore spots occasionally, giving up a relatively large number of 3-point attempts to opponents. Wake is shooting 37.3% from distance and has multiple threats that shoot over 37% from outside.
The Demon Deacons rank 16th in 3-point efficiency, per ShotQuality. They can work the ball inside and out, so Duke should have its hands full.
Additionally, Duke may defend the rim relatively well, but opponents are still making 49.1% of their 2s. Wake shoots 53.6% from 2-point range, so this could be an area of concern for the Blue Devils on the road.
Duke usually holds the rebounding edge against most opponents, but Wake can rebound on the defensive end of the floor, which will limit putback opportunities for Kyle Filipowski and company.
Finally, the Blue Devils can shoot from outside (38% from 3), but the Deacs rank in the top 40 in 3-point attempt frequency on defense. If Wake can trade 3s for 2s, it should provide a boost.
There’s not as wide of a discrepancy between these two teams as the market may indicate, so ride with the home team and take Wake to -3.5.
Pick: Wake Forest -2.5 (Play to -3.5)
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Washington vs. Arizona
The Washington Huskies will conclude an Arizona road swing with a visit in Tucson to face the Arizona Wildcats for an early tip-off.
With a posted total of 168 currently available, I think that the value resides with the under in this game, even though it features two of the best offenses in the Pac-12.
Washington is coming off of a taxing overtime win against Arizona State on Thursday, and even though it's a quick journey down I-10 to Tucson, I think the early start in this game could take some wind out of the sails of the Huskies.
The Huskies will be greeted by the best defense in the Pac-12, as Arizona ranks 17th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
The Wildcats are one of the best teams in the nation on the defensive glass, ranking third in the nation in rebound percentage (77%), stymieing second attempts for their opposition.
Washington will face a tall order slowing down the Arizona offense, but as long as it can keep Arizona in check from beyond the arc, I think that the under will be firmly in play.
The Huskies may get some help from Arizona as well, with the Wildcats attempting 3-point shots on just 31.8% of their field goal attempts. That ranks just 303rd in the nation and should excite under bettors when paired with a Washington ranking of 217th in the same metric.
My model is projecting the total for this game at 160, and I think the combination of Washington closing out a road trip and the proclivity for Arizona to resort to 2-point field goals makes the under the right play in this Pac-12 matchup.
Pick: Under 168 (Play to 165)
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Wofford vs. Furman
By Matt Gannon
On Saturday, we have a SoCon clash between two teams that have seen NCAA tournament success in the past.
With just a few weeks left in the season, Wofford and Furman are both on the outside looking in for the regular-season title conference, but they have their eyes on making some noise in the conference tournament.
This is the second meeting between the two after Wofford got the better of Furman the first go-around. The Paladins were 6.5-point road favorites and ended up losing outright by 10.
The overwhelming advantage that the Terriers had in that matchup was on the glass. They limited Furman's second-chance opportunities and got a few second chances themselves on the offensive end.
This will be the exact formula Wofford will need to execute if it wants to find success on the road. Furman's skill positions are far superior to Wofford's, and the Paladins are looking for revenge while coming off a close loss.
Just a few days ago, Furman took the best team in the conference to the brink but lost to Samford by two on the road.
Furman knows it can beat anyone in this conference and will take care of business against a team that embarrassed it a few weeks ago.
Pick: Furman -7.5 (Play to -9)
Cincinnati vs. TCU
By John Feltman
This is the definition of a smash spot in Fort Worth, Texas, on Saturday.
TCU is coming off a tough loss at Texas Tech but now returns home against a reeling Cincinnati team.
The Bearcats have lost seven of their last 10, including a horrific home loss to Oklahoma State on Wednesday. With the loss, the Bearcats would most likely need to win the Big 12 Tournament to make the Big Dance.
I expect the Bearcats to come out flat, uninterested and sluggish on the road. Meanwhile, Jamie Dixon’s Frogs have a lot to play for, including improving their NCAA tournament seed.
It’s also a great matchup for the Frogs, considering their offense is by far the superior unit. The Bearcats are far too careless with the basketball, don’t shoot the triple well and don’t have the consistency on offense to keep up.
The Horned Frogs rank top-25 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, and they have more than enough talent to crack the Bearcats’ stingy defense.
There’s no reason to believe TCU won’t bounce back at home. It would take a fluke shooting performance from Cincinnati to stay within the number.
Pick: TCU -4.5 (Play to -6.5)
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Alabama vs. Kentucky
Much has been made about how Kentucky has been a better basketball team away from home, but I believe Saturday is the day the Wildcats make a statement inside Rupp Arena.
Kentucky is an elite offensive team that should have tons of advantages when it has the ball against a pretty weak Crimson Tide defense.
In addition to Alabama’s defensive shortcomings, the Tide will also likely be undermanned in this one, with Latrell Wrightsell Jr. banged up and Mohamed Wague suspended for a flagrant foul.
Nate Oats’ team has been a winning machine in SEC play due to an explosive offense that has shooters everywhere.
While Kentucky has struggled to get stops at times this season, the Cats have the personnel to guard the arc and make Bama beat them at the rim.
Alabama has been outgunning opponents all year, but that will change on Saturday.
Kentucky will be able to get whatever it wants when it has the ball, and the Crimson Tide won't be able to keep pace.
Give me the Cats in a game I don’t believe will be all that close.
Pick: Kentucky -125 (Play to -2.5 or -130)
North Carolina vs. Virginia
By Alex Hinton
North Carolina and Virginia will take the floor with each team’s last game having come against Virginia Tech. The two games couldn't have gone more differently.
The Tar Heels pulled away for a 96-81 victory over the Hokies at home, while the Cavaliers could muster only 41 points in a 34-point loss to their arch-rival.
Virginia should be more comfortable on its home floor, where it’s 14-1 this season. It has also won seven of the last 10 meetings against North Carolina.
However, many of those games haven't featured a lot of points. The under in this series has gone 4-1-1 in the last six meetings and 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings.
This year’s matchup features two teams that are top-10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, with the Cavaliers ranking ninth. They have a pair of long defenders in the backcourt in Reece Beekman and Isaac McKneely, who may cause issues for UNC’s undersized duo of RJ Davis and Elliot Cadeau.
The Tar Heels may be slightly behind Virginia (10th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency for the season), but they’ve had the ACC’s best defense in conference games. They’re allowing just 66.5 points per game in conference play, despite playing at one of the fastest paces (40th in Adjusted Tempo) in the country.
Virginia will want to play this game at a snail’s pace, as it ranks 362nd in Adjusted Tempo. It'll have an easier time pulling that off at home.
Overall, the under has hit in three of Virginia’s last five home games and 16 of the Hoos’ 27 games (59%) this season.
I expect defense to rule the day in Charlottesville on Saturday.
Pick: Under 130.5 (Play to 128.5)
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