Illinois vs Michigan Odds, Pick
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
Brad Underwood has had his team prepared the last few years against the Michigan Wolverines. Illinois has a six-game winning streak over Michigan and travels to Ann Arbor in a huge spot on Thursday.
Once again, the Illini will be without Terrance Shannon Jr. However, aside from their brutal home loss to Maryland — where they showed signs of issues for the first time without their best player — the Fighting Illini had looked strong in every previous game.
Illinois Fighting Illini
The Illini have improved offensively since earlier in the season. One major factor has been limiting offensive turnovers.
This will come into play in this matchup because although Illinois doesn't force many turnovers, the Illini have a better offensive turnover rate than Michigan, which also doesn't force too many mistakes on the defensive end.
Illinois has also shot better from deep. The Illini couldn't even make as much as a layup on Sunday against Maryland, but nothing was falling for them. Michigan allows more 3-point attempts and yields a 3-point percentage of about 34% on defense.
Illinois protects the arc better defensively and ranks better in offensive Open 3 Rate, per ShotQuality. The Illini are shooting almost 35% from 3-point distance, while Michigan shoots around 38%.
That said, the Illini should take advantage from beyond the arc.
Coleman Hawkins drills one! 🚀 @colehawk23 x @IlliniMBBpic.twitter.com/EmxdkBRX7a
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) January 12, 2024
Illinois thrives on the glass. The Illini rank particularly well on the offensive boards in comparison to Michigan’s defensive rebounding percentage. Sure, once again, Illinois lost the rebounding battle against Maryland, but it should bounce back here.
Unlike Michigan, the Illini can actually rebound from the guard position, as they play a more position-less style of basketball. This should help because Tarris Reed Jr. and Olivier Nkamhoua have been the only consistent players on the glass for the Wolverines.
Tray Jackson may also be out for Michigan, so depth in the frontcourt could be even more stretched.
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Michigan Wolverines
Michigan would be right to target the weaker facet of the Illini defense by taking 3-pointers, but the Wolverines could be beaten harshly inside the arc. Michigan is shooting about 53% from 2-point range, while allowing opponents to shoot up near 50% defensively on 2s.
Illinois, however, is shooting almost 55% from 2-point land and only is permitting opponents to hit 42.2% from 2. Since Illinois doesn't give up many 3-point opportunities, Michigan needs to find a way to score another way.
The Wolverines don't rank particularly well at getting to the free-throw line and are fouling opponents much more than their opponents, and in particular, Illinois. Coleman Hawkins is a main ingredient to this defense. He can guard inside and out and lock down the interior.
Yes, Illinois takes a hit when Hawkins gets into foul trouble, but Dain Dainja can produce offensively if called upon. Needless to say, Illinois has such a massive edge on the interior that it's hard to envision Michigan producing much unless the Wolverines hit 3s.
Adding on, they rank 274th in Rim and 3 Rate, per ShotQuality, while Illinois ranks third defensively. Basically, the Illini are good at limiting efficient shots from the opposition.
Illinois vs. Michigan
Betting Pick & Prediction
Illinois is looking to rebound in this game and it'll have that edge in the rebounding column, as well. The Illini can keep up and defend the arc to keep Michigan in check.
Illinois’ interior presence will provide the most significant boost for the road team.
Take the Illini in a close one here at -1.5. Play them to -3.
Underwood should extend his winning streak over Howard and the Wolverines.
Pick: Illinois -1.5 (Play to -3)
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