If you haven't followed along closely to this college basketball season, you might be a bit surprised to see Notre Dame favored over perennial powerhouse North Carolina. The Irish are 3.5-point favorites tonight in South Bend thanks to a treacherous UNC season.
The Tar Heels have turned a 5-0 start into a 10-15 record, and have lost 10 of their last 12. They're holding down the last-place spot in the ACC at 3-11 and have won just two road games overall.
But are sharps still able to make a case for the Heels? Let's find out.
Odds as of Monday morning. In Indiana? Check out FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
North Carolina vs. Notre Dame Sharp Betting Picks
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
With this game drawing more bets than any other tonight, Notre Dame's 67% backing makes that spread ticket among the most common on the slate. That backing hasn't been quite as dominant on the money front, though, generating 61% of actual dollars hitting the spread — meaning the Tar Heels are drawing slightly bigger bettors.
That's not the most eye-catching discrepancy, but as games are more heavily-bet, smaller bet-vs.-money differences become more meaningful, so it's still something to keep an eye on.
More noteworthy has been how this line has moved since opening. Notre Dame was a 4-point favorite at most books last night, but throughout the morning has been listed at -3.5, even with its support in the market.
That reverse line movement pretty much gives away the sharp side by itself, but just to confirm it, Sports Insights Bet Signals have revealed two cases of smart money hitting UNC at +4, convincing oddsmakers that their line was too high.
That's not all the smart money we've tracked however.
In a similar fashion, the over/under has moved away from the popular side for this matchup, and sharps once again are behind the shift.
Fifty-five percent of bettors are taking the under on a total that opened at 147.5, but the number has been bumped up to 148, and further to 148.5 in some spots. Another pair of Bet Signals on the over has confirmed the pro action.
Sharp angles: North Carolina (moved from +4 to +3.5), Over (moved from 147.5 to 148)
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