Ohio State vs Nebraska Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 149.5 -105o / -115u | +145 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 149.5 -105o / -115u | -175 |
Back in the Big Ten, we head to Lincoln, Nebraska.
You probably don't think of Lincoln as one of the hot spots for rowdy college hoops fans, but that's changed this year with Nebraska battling tooth-and-nail for an NCAA tournament berth.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes rank 293rd in adjusted tempo and have scored fewer than 65 points in three of the past four games. We're not talking about Creighton-level pace or shooting prowess.
Ohio State's offense runs through sophomore guard Bruce Thornton, who averages 16.3 points per game on 41% shooting and 31% from 3. Things haven't gone smoothly lately, as he's shot 28-for-72 (36%) across the past five contests. Thornton's morphing into a very high-usage offensive player, but the efficiency needs some improvement.
Chris Holtmann found a gem in Minnesota transfer Jamison Battle, the best shooter in the Big Ten. The super senior forward is shooting 44% from downtown — the lone Buckeye shooting above 40% from 3.
Meanwhile, Ohio State could be better at defending perimeter jumpers. Opponents shoot around 34% from 3 against the Buckeyes, a real problem against Nebraska's offense. It doesn't matter if Nebraska plays a stout 3-point defense; the shots will come.
So, Nebraska should feast against a questionable perimeter defense.
The Buckeyes don't play an aggressive defensive style, rarely forcing turnovers. I have some real reservations about this defense beyond Felix Okpara manning the paint.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska is nearly unbeatable at home, with its only loss coming in a 29-point pounding against Creighton in November.
Since then, the Huskers pulled out home wins over No. 1 Purdue, Northwestern and Michigan State. Pinnacle Bank Arena is no longer some pushover location for conference games. Teams fear playing Nebraska these days.
The offense is among the best in the Big Ten, ranking 29th in efficiency. Fred Hoiberg wants a steady diet of 3s coming from his team, which perfectly fits the offense's mold. Nebraska's point guard situation is uncertain, with Jamarques Lawrence having an up-and-down sophomore year. So, Nebraska runs offense through big man Rienk Mast, who leads the team with three assists per game.
Mast is superb at dishing to shooters Keisei Tominaga and Brice Williams from the top of the arc. Tominaga exudes confidence from beyond the arc, attempting over six threes per contest — the smooth lefty hits on 38% of his longballs. He's among the sport's most exciting players and best shooters. Williams is another strong sniper, hitting 37% of his 3s, and CJ Wilcher is shooting 43% from 3.
The Huskers have a whole stable of shooters on the roster.
However, Nebraska has struggled to find defensive consistency, ranking 102nd in efficiency.
But I feel like three awful performances skew the defensive numbers. Allowing 89 to Creighton, 88 to Wisconsin and 94 to Iowa are among the three worst defensive outings for any team this year.
Conversely, Nebraska limited Purdue to 72 points, Northwestern to 69 and Kansas State to 46 points. There's some proof in the pudding that Nebraska's defense isn't that bad.
Also, keep an eye on Juwan Gary's status for this one. He suffered a calf sprain a few games back and missed Nebraska's most recent game against Northwestern. If Gary is out, Josiah Allick should step into a more prominent role again. He scored 15 points, grabbed seven rebounds, and played stout defense against the Wildcats.
The primary defensive struggle comes in the open court. Opponents score over 1.05 points per possession in transition. That makes Nebraska susceptible to fast-paced teams.
The good news? Ohio State isn't an up-tempo team.
Ohio State vs. Nebraska
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm backing the Huskers for a few different reasons.
Nebraska is good. It can shoot, plays hard, and runs unique offensive sets.
Plus, the Huskers hold an 11-8 against the spread record compared to Ohio State's mediocre 6-12 mark.
This spot feels terrific for Nebraska. It's a great home team, and Ohio State is cratering at the wrong time.
Pick: Nebraska -3 (Play to -4)
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