The Southern Illinois Salukis take on the Drake Bulldogs in the Missouri Valley Tournament. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Drake is favored by 10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. The total is set at 127.5 points.
Here are my Southern Illinois vs. Drake predictions and college basketball picks for March 7, 2025.
Southern Illinois vs Drake Prediction
My Pick: Over 129 or Better
My Southern Illinois vs Drake best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Southern Illinois vs Drake Odds, Spread, Pick
| Southern Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -105 | 127.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| Drake Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -115 | 127.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
- Southern Illinois vs Drake spread: Drake -10
- Southern Illinois vs Drake over/under: 127.5 points
- Southern Illinois vs Drake moneyline: Drake -550, Southern Illinois +400
- Southern. Illinois vs Drake best bet: Over 129 or Better
My Southern Illinois vs Drake College Basketball Betting Preview
Drake is vulnerable. The Bulldogs are 5-0 in overtime this year and have frequently shown signs of weakness. Also, they’re a high-variance team because of their ridiculously plodding pace.
That said, I’m unsure if Southern Illinois is the team that can take Drake down.
The only way to stop Drake is to stop Bennett Stirtz’s relentless middle pick-and-roll attacks, and the Salukis are a miserable ball-screen coverage defense, especially on the perimeter (.87 PPP allowed, 12th percentile, per Synergy).
Drake beat Southern Illinois by 10 in the first meeting partly because the Salukis couldn’t stop Stirtz, who scored 30 points, including 13 on 15 ball-screen sets.
That said, can the Salukis keep up on the other end of the court?
I think so.
Southern Illinois leverages its positional size to post up from everywhere on the court, while Drake’s defense is questionable, undersized and doesn’t grade out well defending opposing post-up sets (.90 PPP allowed, 34th percentile, per Synergy).
The Salukis managed 13 points on 11 post-up sets in the first head-to-head meeting (1.18 PPP, per Synergy), and I suspect they can replicate that performance in the rematch.
Betting the over in Drake games is a masochistic exercise. The Bulldogs play painfully slow and grind the game to a halt, and Arch Madness is known for its slow pace and painful shot making.
That said, the first game between these two went over the closing total (130 points after closing at 127.5), and I think that’s because the offenses match up well with the opposing defenses.
Meanwhile, Southern Illinois just played a wildly fast-paced game against Indiana State in which the Salukis operated very efficiently. Sure, Indiana State’s defense is pathetic, but four straight Southern Illinois games have gone over.
Despite all the historical trends telling me to do the opposite, I’ll go against my best judgement and bet this Arch Madness over.
