To put it plainly, last week was a bloodbath for this column. All three home favorites let me down in a significant way, with Tulane the only one among them that even flirted with the possibility of covering.
After a chalky card that ended in ruin, I’ve pivoted to a pair of underdogs and a short-road favorite here in Week 6.
Texas State +2.5 @ Louisiana
Texas State was one of the most fun teams to discuss in the offseason because it was brimming with potential.
Thanks to the transfer portal, the Bobcats had not one, but two SEC quarterbacks vying for the starting job. They also had a brand new coaching staff that had set the FCS world on fire at Incarnate Word. G.J. Kinne was the architect of the nation’s top offense at that level, helping quarterback Lindsey Scott Jr. account for 71 total touchdowns.
But the prevailing thought was that the Bobcats would be entertaining but flawed in Year 1 of Kinne in San Marcos. So much for that theory. Texas State drilled Baylor in the opener and now sits 4-1 straight up and against the spread, comfortably covering all three road games thus far.
T.J. Finley got most of the headlines in the early going, but now the story is TSU’s pint-sized playmaker, Ismail Mahdi. Last season, Mahdi was a Jerry Rice Award finalist, which is given to the best FCS freshman.
He’s been even better in maroon and gold, leading the nation in all-purpose yards per game by a sizable margin. The second closest player, Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, sits 20 yards behind him.
And now we have a Louisiana team set to square off against the Bobs, and I see holes in the Ragin' Cajuns' résumé. For starters, they’ve beaten Northwestern State, UAB and Buffalo. The average Sagarin Rating of those wins is 156.
The advanced stats on the defensive side of the ball indicate that Texas State is going to light up the Ragin’ Cajuns. Louisiana ranks 101st in generating Havoc and 110th in Rushing Success Rate on defense.
Yes, they look good against the pass, but TSU is perfectly balanced and should be able to run with ease in this game.
I still believe the market is too high on Louisiana, a team skating by on its reputation from the Napier years. I would play this down to even money.
Play: Texas State +2.5
Colorado State vs. Utah State
Last season, the Rams were in the mix for the Bizarro Moore Award — a fake award that should be given to the nation's worst offensive line. No team surrendered more sacks than Colorado State, making it difficult to get the passing game clicking.
But there were signs that this offense was ready to take a leap this season, provided that the offensive line improved.
Through four games it’s safe to say that the line is much better. The Rams rank 43rd nationally in sacks allowed per game.
That added time in the pocket has helped Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi break out as one of the surprise stars of this young season. The redshirt freshman has accounted for 10 touchdowns in his first three starts.
But BFN isn’t a one-man show. His receiving corps is the very best in the Group of Five, headlined by Tory Horton and tight end Dallin Holker. The pair has caught 10 touchdown passes in Fowler-Nicolosi's three starts.
Now the Rams will get the opportunity to carve up a listless Utah State defense. The Aggies are bottoming out in nearly every statistical category ranking 130th in Success Rate on defense and 110th in Sack Rate.
They just let UConn — which entered as the third-worst scoring offense in the nation — score 33 points against them last week.
Jay Norvell is working his turnaround magic in Fort Collins, and books haven’t fully caught up yet. I would play this to a field goal.
Play: Colorado State-2.5 (Play to -3)
Fresno State vs. Wyoming
Let’s stay in the Mountain West.
Wyoming is a fantastic home dog under head coach Craig Bohl, going 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as a home dog dating back to 2019. The Cowboys won six of those outright and have a simple yet effective recipe — they can run the ball and play great defense.
From a weather perspective, this is a classic Laramie game. Just before kickoff, it will be 65 degrees with light winds. During the game, the temperature will drop by close to 30 degrees, and winds will whip into the 12-15 MPH range.
In recent trips to Laramie, this Bulldogs offense has struggled, scoring just 30 total points in its last two games. And this Fresno offense looked a bit off last week against a lowly Nevada team.
The Bulldogs will also be facing a stingy Wyoming defense that has been battled-tested with games against Texas Tech, Texas and Appalachian State already this season.
Despite a rigorous nonconference schedule, the Pokes are 25th in limiting explosive plays this season. When teams get into their red zone, opponents are converting just 52% of their trips into touchdowns.
Wyoming is also benefitting from tremendous special teams plays (20th in SP+) and a rejuvenating rushing attack. Transfer running back Harrison Waylee is averaging 8.6 yards per carry, as the offense runs through him and his 150 yards per game average. He has also found the end zone in every game he’s played in this season.
A team with a great G5 defense that wins on special teams and doesn’t commit penalties (23rd) is exactly the kind of home dog I want to back. I’d play this down to three and the hook.
Play: Wyoming +5.5 (Play to +3.5)
Calabrese's Week 6 Group of Five Parlay
- Texas State +2.5
- Colorado State -2.5
- Wyoming +6
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