Auburn vs Vanderbilt Odds, Pick
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +360 |
The Auburn Tigers are making the journey to Nashville to face the Vanderbilt Commodores.
Auburn is 4-4 but coming off a nice win against Mississippi State in which it snapped a four-game SEC losing streak. Unfortunately for Vanderbilt, its SEC losing streak is still alive. Is this the week it finally snaps it?
Let's dig in and make our pick for Auburn vs. Vanderbilt.
Auburn Tigers
Auburn came into the season with the most offensive TARP of any team in the country. Unfortunately, that hasn't translated into a stellar offense.
The Tigers aren't bad, but I wouldn't call them good. Auburn ranks 48th in Success Rate, 107th in explosiveness, 68th in Points per Opportunity and 87th in Havoc Allowed.
The Tigers are a little all over the place, but when separating rush and pass, it's clear this team's identity is on the ground. Auburn runs the ball at the 14th-highest in the country and is also very good at it, ranking 25th in Rushing Success Rate and 68th in rushing explosiveness.
However, Auburn struggles through the air, ranking 86th in Passing Success Rate and 83rd in passing explosiveness. You'd think most of that would fall on transfer Payton Thorne, but he's played relatively decent with a 77 PFF grade, good for 45th in the country among qualifying quarterbacks.
That's not great, but it's not terrible either. Regardless, I'd expect Auburn to run often in this game.
Vanderbilt Commodores
On the flip side, Vanderbilt is an extremely interesting offense to examine.
The Commodores rank 124th in Success Rate and 131st in Havoc Allowed but also come in at 15th in explosiveness and 29th in Points per Opportunity. My take on their high Points per Opportunity mark is that they're good at taking advantage of the few opportunities they end up receiving.
Vanderbilt ranks 15th in passing rate, but I don't expect them to find much success through the air on Saturday. Yes, the Commodores pass often, but they rank just 94th in Passing Success Rate.
Unfortunately, passing is their best option. They rank in the bottom 15 in both Rushing Success Rate and rushing explosiveness.
Auburn vs Vanderbilt
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Auburn and Vanderbilt match up statistically:
Auburn Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 25 | 86 | |
| Line Yards | 103 | 85 | |
| Pass Success | 86 | 115 | |
| Havoc | 108 | 96 | |
| Finishing Drives | 68 | 84 | |
| Quality Drives | 78 | 127 | |
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Auburn Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 119 | 88 | |
| Line Yards | 91 | 44 | |
| Pass Success | 94 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 37 | |
| Finishing Drives | 29 | 71 | |
| Quality Drives | 86 | 53 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 57 | 65 |
| PFF Coverage | 33 | 122 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 26 | 59 |
| Middle 8 | 4 | 117 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (75) | 26.9 (67) |
| Rush Rate | 62.5% (14) | 45.3% (120) |
Auburn vs Vanderbilt
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these teams are methodical on offense. Auburn ranks 75th in seconds per play, while Vanderbilt comes in at 67th.
Vandy will struggle to move the ball, and Auburn likely will move it, but slowly. These offenses don't give me a ton of confidence, so bet the Auburn vs. Vanderbilt under.
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