Troy vs Texas State Odds
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | -250 |
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | +200 |
Who would've thought Texas State team could reach bowl eligibility before October concluded? Well, the Bobcats have the opportunity to head to a bowl game for the first time since they transitioned to the FBS in 2012.
The Bobcats are set to host the Troy Trojans, and both of these teams are coming off victories before their bye week.
Many are saying Texas State is fraudulent, and I somewhat agree based on its weak strength of schedule. But let's break down these teams and see if we can uncover some betting value.
Troy Trojans
I was very high on Troy entering this season. The offense, led by quarterback Gunnar Watson and halfback Kimani Vidal, hasn't really clicked on a week-to-week basis, but I've been really impressed with the defensive front.
This game will come down to the Trojans' ability to contain Texas State's offense.
Troy is top-20 in multiple defensive metrics, including Rushing and Passing Success Rates. The Trojans are also 16th in Line Yards, which speaks volumes about their terrific defensive line.
Offensively, the metrics aren't as strong. However, I think the Trojans will be able to keep the Bobcats defense off-balance.
I realize Texas State's defensive metrics look good, but I need to see the Bobcats play against more legitimate offenses before I fully buy in. Vidal could give this defense fits on the ground, and I wouldn't blink if he broke off a few big runs.
Troy's defense should have the upper hand against this "explosive" Bobcats' offense, and I the offense to make enough big plays to pull out the victory.
Texas State Bobcats
Texas State continues to be a fascinating story. Nobody really knows how good this team is, but at 5-2, I think it's time to start recognizing it for its solid performance.
The Bobcats recently pulled a rabbit out of their hat in the second half against Louisiana-Monroe, a game they had no business winning. I've mentioned Texas State's schedule quite a few times already, but let's take a closer look.
They've faced a gauntlet (yes, I'm joking) that includes Baylor, UTSA, Jackson State, Nevada, Southern Miss, Louisiana and ULM.
Texas State is top-12 in Rushing and Passing Success Rate, as well as Offensive Line Yards. Those are really remarkable numbers, but the Bobcats will be severely tested this week.
I think the bye week will help Texas State scheme up a way to attack Troy's defense, but I'm still not buying that unit. I think the Bobcats are due for some offensive regression and that this matchup will give them fits.
Defensively, I'd argue their metrics are just as flawed as they've yet to face an elite offense.
I really can't figure out this team, so I don't feel comfortable taking the points against Troy's defense.
Troy vs Texas State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Troy and Texas State match up statistically:
Troy Offense vs. Texas State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 78 | 51 | |
| Line Yards | 44 | 50 | |
| Pass Success | 93 | 86 | |
| Havoc | 105 | 18 | |
| Finishing Drives | 111 | 39 | |
| Quality Drives | 51 | 93 | |
Texas State Offense vs. Troy Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 21 | |
| Line Yards | 10 | 16 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 15 |  |
| Havoc | 87 | 40 | |
| Finishing Drives | 15 | 44 | |
| Quality Drives | 16 | 18 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 22 | 119 |
| PFF Coverage | 3 | 37 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 85 | 21 |
| Middle 8 | 9 | 62 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.5 (96) | 23.4 (11) |
| Rush Rate | 55.0% (58) | 55.1% (42) |
Troy vs Texas State
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm going to take the under in this game. It's a bit scary considering how fast Texas State's offense likes to play, but I have full faith in the Trojans' defensive unit.
Troy is a snail on offense, and I could see it leaning heavily on Vidal to move the chains throughout the game.
The market definitely disagrees with me as a lot of the handle is on the over, but I don't believe in Texas State at all.
In case I'm wrong about Texas State, I feel much more comfortable taking the under than swallowing the points. Let's hope the Trojans defense comes out hungry after the bye.
