Week 1 College Football Predictions
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
After a limited Week 0 slate last Saturday, the college football action really ramps up in Week 1. It starts with a loaded Thursday slate, and there will be at least one game every day through Monday.
That means 96 college football games are on the docket, giving us plenty of opportunities to make a trip to the window.
I'm most intrigued by eight games this weekend.
First, I'll start with the weekday games, including Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Arkansas and North Carolina vs. Minnesota on Thursday, as well as TCU vs. Stanford on Friday.
Then, I'll pivot to the Saturday slate, where I'll dish out my picks for the three biggest games in Clemson vs. Georgia, Miami vs. Florida and Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M.
Finally, I'll wrap it up LSU vs. USC on Sunday and Boston College vs. Florida State on Monday, which will be released closer to game time.
Continue reading for my college football picks and predictions in my Action Network betting card for college football Week 1.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Arkansas Pick, Prediction
The Arkansas Razorbacks reached into the history books to pull one of their former head coaches as the new offensive coordinator. Bobby Petrino takes center stage in Little Rock on Thursday night, leading the Hogs offense.
Head coach Sam Pittman has been on the hot seat for nearly a calendar year, firing new coordinator Dan Enos early in the 2023 season before leading Arkansas to a win total that resembled the Chad Morris era.
Pittman thrived in his first three seasons with former head coach Barry Odom on staff. Now, Petrino is tasked with the same responsibility while jump-starting a lifeless offense.
The Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions will make the short bus trip to Fayetteville for their second-ever game against the Razorbacks. The Lions lost the 2021 iteration, 45-3, in War Memorial Stadium and continue to have a history of underachieving in FCS.
As a member of the SWAC, UAPB has just three division titles and one conference championship since the turn of the century. Head coach Alonzo Hampton enters his second season with Lions after finishing 2-9 with wins over Texas Southern and Division II Miles College.
UAPB vs Arkansas Preview
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Betting Preview
Arkansas-Pine Bluff will introduce 50 new players to the roster this season, receiving one of the lowest marks in FCS experience heading into 2024.
The good news is the lone returning quarterback on the roster is starter Mekhi Hagens. The redshirt junior attempted 114 passes with a skyrocketing pressure rate of 43% on 152 dropbacks.
The Lions are not expected to find any efficiency or explosiveness through the air, considering Hagen completed just 12-of-43 attempts beyond 10 yards.
The main concern for the Arkansas defense will be UAPB's RPO package that led to a rushing rank of 73rd, a number that lifted a total offense rank of 106th.
Lead running back Johness Davis returns with 386 yards on 78 rushing attempts with an average of 3.5 yards after contact. There's a chance for an explosive run, as Davis averaged a double-digit gain on 18% of attempts.
The only returning offensive line starter is center Rolando Jones, but the senior was flagged twice as much as any other blocker in 2023.
Arkansas defensive coordinator Travis Williams returns for a second season in Fayetteville, bringing a nickel package that will show three- and four-man fronts depending on down and distance.
Head coach Sam Pittman made the hire before last season because of Williams' ultra-aggressive nature and ability to connect with players. Arkansas ended the season with a 37% blitz rate, generating a high 15% success rate in creating Havoc.
The Razorbacks massively improved in tackles for loss and third-down defense a season ago. Edge Landon Jackson and interior Eric Gregory return to a defensive line that will continue to create a top-40 Havoc rate.
Arkansas' 2023 strength profile. Photo via SportSource Analytics.
Arkansas Betting Preview
Injuries have piled up on the Arkansas offense as fall camp has progressed. A handful of starters were held out of the scrimmages that were open to the media.
While Arkansas' depth chart has the names of players expected to start, a few notable players will not dress or take any action on the field.
The running back room runs five players deep, but Rashod Dubinion is doubtful for the game. Utah transfer Ja’Quinden Jackson will get the start, but he was limited in practices throughout August.
The Hogs will be in good shape with Rodney Hill and Braylen Russell getting carries, but the health of the rushing attack must be monitored before a Week 2 trip to Stillwater.
While the offensive line is expected to be a strength for Petrino’s offense, starter Patrick Kutas will not play in this game. The junior was expected to be the primary contributor at left guard but will undergo an MRI on Friday.
E’Marion Harris will take over the spot on the offensive line, drawing heavy praise from Petrino.
Boise State transfer quarterback Taylen Green is expected to play at a high level in the SEC, but his roommate and projected top target, Andrew Armstrong, has not had a full workout in fall camp as of this writing.
There are 39 new players on the Arkansas roster, but health will limit the Razorbacks' options in an offensive attack. There's every expectation that Petrino’s offense will be on full display, as the coach will be on the sideline with direct communication to Green.
The weapons remaining for the Razorback offense are capable of creating chunk plays and quick scores in the Petrino offense. Isaiah Sategna is the fastest target on the team and gives Arkansas an explosive element that led to a top-10 ranking in SP+ special teams a season ago.
Tight end Luke Hasz was on track to be a candidate for Freshman of the Year, but an injury against Texas A&M ended his season.
Finally, Monte Harrison was listed second on the depth chart at receiver. The 29-year-old has hit home runs for the Marlins and Angels but now gets the chance to jump-start his football career while providing leadership in the locker room.
UAPB loses six of its top seven tacklers from a defense that ranked 115th out of 122 teams in total defense. The red-zone defense allowed teams to score on 90% of attempts, with no discrepancy between limiting opponents' rushing or passing attacks.
The Lions allowed 33 points per game against a schedule of SWAC and Division II opponents, so Petrino should have success no matter which players are on the field.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Arkansas Pick & Prediction
Pittman gave credit to Hampton at his weekly presser, communicating the great respect he has for his fellow head coach in the state of Arkansas.
The Razorbacks had a long history of avoiding in-state schools under previous administrations due to the fear of losing the fan base, generally opting for directional schools outside of the state.
Notably, Pittman has a history of not running up the score in the second half against inferior opponents.
Against this UAPB team in 2021, the Hogs generated 45 first-half points before ultimately winning the game, 45-3. Western Carolina came to Fayetteville to open the 2023 season, and the Razorbacks led, 35-3, at halftime. The Hogs would go on to score just 14 offensive points in the second half against the Catamounts.
Even when the season was in a downward spiral in November 2023, Arkansas generated 34 first-half points compared to 13 second-half points against Florida International.
Arkansas should be able to name the score against a team that has 50 new players, a depleted defense and an RPO offense that returns only one offensive line starter.
The full-game spread and total will hang on the Lions' ability to avoid a pick-six or scoop-and-score on offense while defending plenty of rushing attempts from the Hogs in the fourth quarter. While Petrino's fourth-quarter aggressiveness is unknown, the offense will likely run base sets and vertical routes.
If Arkansas wants to find success against Oklahoma State, counter run concepts and play-action passes will not be on film. With the Cowboys in mind, look for Petrino to run a limited route tree that generates explosives through the air and potentially forces Oklahoma State to start the game in max coverage situations.
With two key running backs and a starting guard being limited, look for Arkansas to score as much as possible before considering second-half under at halftime.
Pick: 1H Over 31 or Better
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North Carolina vs. Minnesota Pick, Prediction
For the second time in history, Minnesota and North Carolina will face off in an early battle of supremacy between the Big Ten and ACC.
The first iteration between the two programs came last year in a Week 3 showdown in Chapel Hill that saw the home team easily cover a touchdown spread.
Both teams will field new faces at the quarterback position this time around, while the Tar Heels unleash one of the best running backs in college football.
Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck was rumored to flirt with the UCLA job after a tumultuous season that ended with five regular season wins and a surprising invite to the Quick Lane Bowl.
Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi moved on after a long stint with Fleck, giving way to a former FCS assistant coach of the year in his first Power Four role in Corey Hetherman.
On the other side, North Carolina head coach Mack Brown made a change on his coaching staff. Former Temple and Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins is back to his roots as defensive coordinator and is expected to lead the Tar Heels with a nickel package with an emphasis on stopping explosives.
So, where does the betting value lie on Thursday? Let's dive into my UNC vs. Minnesota prediction for Thursday, Aug. 28.
North Carolina vs Minnesota Preview
North Carolina Betting Preview
The days of Drake Maye under center for the Tar Heels have come to an end. Brown made a decision on the quarterback position by announcing that both graduate transfer Max Johnson and sophomore holdover Conner Harrell will share playing time against Minnesota.
While Harrell’s history is limited to just seven dropbacks, Johnson brings four years of experience with 788 passing attempts from LSU and Texas A&M.
Johnson, a southpaw quarterback, has 29 big-time throws to 40 turnover-worthy plays in his career behind a number of offensive lines that failed in pass protection.
Johnson saw 100 pressures in 221 passing attempts a season ago, along with 152 pressures from his 2021 offensive line at LSU.
He'll be in familiar territory again with an inexperienced North Carolina offensive line that returns less than 10 career starts outside of center Willie Lampkin.
The good news for each quarterback is the weapons the Heels will field at the skill positions.
Wideout JJ Jones and slot Nate McCollum return after combining for 122 targets. They'll lead a receiver group that returns seven of the top eight from a season ago.
In that backfield, running back Omarion Hampton has the ability to take over the game despite the expected drop in offensive line production.
The junior created 63 missed tackles while averaging a whopping 4.4 yards after first contact last season. North Carolina ranked 94th in first contact by the defense but finished top-25 in broken tackles created thanks in part to Hampton's elusiveness.
A lot of Omarion Hampton's yards come after contact. He is a physical downhill runner. He's listed at 220, but runs like he's 250. pic.twitter.com/eP7HQrEGh3
— Brian Maafi (@BmaafiNFL) August 21, 2024
The Gophers will have a new defense under Hetherman, the former James Madison defensive coordinator. The new coach will maintain a 3-3-5 scheme that runs minimal blitz, looking to play a base defense that needs to improve in limiting explosives both on the ground and through the air.
The biggest issue for the Minnesota defense is a lack of Havoc and efficiency at all three levels.
The stiff pass rush should continue from a defensive line that includes 53 pressures from edge players Jah Joyner and Danny Striggow, but a lack of competent rush defenders will hamper the Gophers' ability to stop Hampton.
Additionally, the secondary is expected to finish as the worst unit in the Big Ten after losing safety Tyler Nubin.
Minnesota Betting Preview
Fleck did well in the portal to land New Hampshire quarterback Max Brosmer, who led the FCS in passing with more than 3,000 yards and 29 passing touchdowns.
However, a closer look at the numbers indicates Minnesota may not be explosive through the air. Brosmer threw beyond 20 yards on just 9.5% of his 461 attempts.
With just 200 yards from designed rushing attempts in four years at the FCS level, Brosmer is not expected to be a factor in Minnesota's bread-and-butter run concept of outside zone.
Transfer to watch in the Big Ten? @CoachNeuheisel: Dillon Gabriel@JonesN4mo: Aidan Chiles@RandyCrossFB: Max Brosmer@AaronTaylorCFB: Nyland Green pic.twitter.com/ndMA7ExTjP
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) August 9, 2024
Fleck runs one of the heaviest rush rates outside of the service academies. Minnesota ran the ball on 61% of snaps last season but fell outside the top 40 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Luckily for the Gophers, they return every starter on the offensive line except for their center.
Run blocking will be critical for sophomore running back Darius Taylor, who was limited last season with an injury. The Quick Lane Bowl MVP flashed in five regular-season games, recording 3.7 yards after contact while going over 10 yards 15% of the time.
Swiss Army knife receiver Daniel Jackson also returns after lining up all over the field in 2023. He's a threat who hauled in eight touchdowns and posted a massive 2.5 yards per route run.
The Gopher offensive will be the first to see Collins' defense at UNC. The former head coach is tasked with improving a stop unit that was horrific in stopping the run and generating Havoc.
Collins runs multiple fronts while exclusively showing a nickel package with Cover 3 and quarters to stop explosives.
Edge Kaimon Rucker and linebacker Power Echols return to the defense after receiving two of the best run-stopping grades on the roster, per PFF.
Nose tackle Kevin Hester Jr. will be in a full-time role on the interior and also graded highly against the run in creating 13 stops. The Heels are well-equipped to stop the run while also maintaining a top-40 rank in Defensive Finishing Drives.
My North Carolina vs Minnesota Pick & Prediction
Opening games have never been kind to Fleck in terms of covering. He has gone 2-5 against the spread in season openers since 2017.
Brosmer is a fantastic pick-up from the FCS ranks who will look to get familiar with targets in short range, but the bulk of Minnesota's offense will come behind Taylor and the ground game.
While Minnesota is not expected to increase a rank of 117th in big-play rate, the Gophers offense has always been one of the more disciplined with a top-25 rank in Havoc Allowed.
However, the biggest issue for the Gophers is UNC's defensive interior, as Hester and middle linebacker Amare Campbell are two of the top run stuffers on the Tar Heels' roster. Hester will plug the hole over a new Minnesota center, while Campbell — one of UNC's highest-graded rush defenders in limited action last season — steps up behind him.
It's worth noting that Minnesota's offense loves to run in between the tackles. It ran the ball up the middle 240 times last season compared to just 111 to the left side of the line.
While Brosmer will contribute to a rank of 106th in third-down conversions, don't expect many big plays from the Gophers offense.
With an Action Network projection that favors North Carolina, look for the Heels to take the opening road game in a tough "Gold Out" environment.
Pick: UNC ML -130 or Better
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TCU vs. Stanford Pick, Prediction
At the two-year mark since the 2022 offseason, both Stanford and TCU find themselves at a crossroads.
The Cardinal went on a search for a new head coach after the departure of David Shaw, ultimately landing Troy Taylor from FCS Sacramento State. Taylor's success speaks for itself, finishing with at least nine wins every season and a 12-1 record in 2022.
After a loss in the FCS Quarterfinals, the innovative uptempo offense would land in Palo Alto. Stanford surprised in Taylor’s first season as head coach, landing two road upsets over Colorado and Washington State as a double-digit underdog.
On the other side, Sonny Dykes enters his third season with TCU two years removed from a run to the National Championship. However, the vibes have changed in Fort Worth after a 5-7 season that saw the Horned Frogs take a step back after losing more experience than any other FBS team.
Dykes changed up the coaching staff, adding four former head coaches in defensive coordinator Andy Avalos, linebackers coach Ken Wilson, consultant Todd Graham and former Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen.
TCU leads the series all-time against Stanford at 3-0, last playing on the Farm in 2007. With both of these teams in desperate need of a hot start, an opening victory can change the narrative for either program.
So, which side will get off to that hot start? Let's take a look at my TCU vs. Stanford prediction for Friday, Aug. 29 below.
TCU vs Stanford Preview
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview
Kendal Briles remains the offensive coordinator for the Horned Frogs, and the personnel and scheme match the identity of Dykes' Air Raid philosophies.
The Horned Frogs struggled on the offensive line last season, ranking mid-FBS in pass blocking for a scheme that runs on just 44% of snaps.
The issues could continue due to a lack of experience in the trench. The transfer portal was in heavy use with only guard/center combo Coltin Deery returning to a full-time role.
Center and Texas native James Brockermeyer transfers from Alabama with limited experience, while guard Carson Bruno started 23 consecutive games for Louisiana Tech. San Diego State transfer Cade Bennett was expected to be a large contributor to the offensive line but never participated in fall camp for undisclosed reasons.
Protection will be paramount for quarterback Josh Hoover, as the sophomore struggled in a crowded pocket. Opponents that forced pressure against TCU saw a drop of 20% in Hoover’s adjusted completion percentage and a spike that doubled his turnover-worthy play rate.
The good news is the weapons surrounding Hoover, starting with slot JP Richardson leading the team in targets. The senior averaged an explosive two yards per route run to complement wideout Savion Williams.
TCU fell to 66th in Passing EPA, as Hoover struggled in creating explosives against Cover 2 and quarters looks from opposing secondaries.
The numbers indicate that Stanford's 2023 defense was one of the worst in all of college football, ranking dead last in Finishing Drives and rush explosives allowed.
If there's a caveat to the numbers that all rank bottom-10 on defense, tackling fundamentals were a strong point for “Director of Defense” Bobby April. Stanford finished 69th in tackle grading, per PFF, and 21st in broken tackles allowed.
More than 80% of the defense returns from a season ago, led by linebackers Gaethan Bernadel and Tristan Sinclair. Both players combined for 124 tackles and 60 stops, serving as building blocks to improve a poor 2-4-5 defense from last year.
Stanford Cardinal Betting Preview
Taylor continues to be a headache for opposing defensive coordinators. The Cardinal offense uses a combination of shotgun and pistol with 11 and 12 personnel and a heavy 60% motion rate.
Stanford elected to go no-huddle on 63% of snaps while nearly never showing the same alignment pre-snap.
Taylor used 12 different formations in third-down attempts in single games against Oregon, California and Washington State. While there's an even run-pass balance for the Cardinal, Taylor called nearly as many trick plays as zone read options.
Ashton Daniels returns under center, serving as a dual-threat operator of Taylor’s offense.
Daniels had a split distribution of 434 rushing yards on scrambles and designed run calls while throwing for more than 2,200 yards.
The sophomore must improve a big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rate that both fall at 4.7%.
Daniels also gets his most valuable weapon back in wideout Elic Ayomanor, who generated 107 targets for more than 1,000 yards and 2.3 yards per route run.
Just felt like posting a video of Travis Hunter’s father
Elic Ayomanor
13 catches,294 yards and 3 touchdowns😮💨😮💨
— CFBTalkDaily (@CFBTalkDaily) July 22, 2024
TCU made a change at coordinator on the defensive side, relieving Joe Gillespie of his duties in favor of former Boise State head coach Andy Avalos.
The Horned Frogs elected to move from a three- to a four-man front with the intention of stopping the opposing rush.
The timing could not have been worse for the portal news on the defensive line, as interior Damonic Williams — one of the nation's most sought-after players — ultimately ended up at Oklahoma.
TCU fell to 107th in pass rush a season ago with questions remaining throughout the defensive line. The linebacker unit will have experience with Namdi Obiazor and Kaleb Elarms-Orr, although both players graded poorly in coverage.
The secondary does return Bud Clark at free safety after logging eight passes defensed a season ago.
With a new defensive scheme, trench losses in the portal and an on-target allowed rank of 98th, the Horned Frogs will have their hands full with Stanford's offense.
TCU vs Stanford Pick & Prediction
TCU lost four of its final five games to end 2023, falling a single victory short of bowl season. Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma all scored at least 35 points down the stretch, including a 69-point outburst by the Sooners.
A change was needed on the defensive side of the ball, but the move from Gillespie to Avalos may not resolve a Havoc rank of 121st. While Gillespie's 3-3-5 focused more on jamming the tackle box, the 4-2-5 will emphasize containment and improving a Rushing Success rank of 77th.
Avalos had declining numbers on defense during his time at Oregon and Boise State, an area of caution when paired with Briles' uptempo offense.
The Stanford offense can be a handful for undisciplined defenses, finishing last season at 24th in broken tackles.
Taylor has had all summer to come up with a game plan against the Horned Frogs, a variable that paid dividends last season. Stanford beat both Hawaii and Colorado with a combined 83 points in games when he had extra time to prepare.
Expect Daniels and Ayomanor to give opposing defenses trouble — especially a Horned Frogs defense that lacks consistency in tackling and defending balls in the air.
On the other side of the ball, there's no reason to believe Stanford can make large gains in the defensive analytics. The real test will be a secondary that plays primarily quarters in coverage snaps, a scheme Hoover had consistent issues against.
With an Action Network projection that calls for TCU to win by less than a touchdown, look to take the points with Stanford in an expected shootout.
Pick: Stanford +9 or Better
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Clemson vs. Georgia Pick, Prediction
Two of the best programs over the past eight seasons are set to kick off Week 1 Saturday in Mercedes-Benz Stadium — the same venue that will host the National Championship game — and we have a Clemson vs. Georgia prediction.
The Tigers and Bulldogs have accounted for four total national titles since 2016, setting the stage for a potential preview of the College Football Playoff at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Georgia will look to keep its momentum going after an Orange Bowl blowout of Florida State.
Head coach Kirby Smart failed to reach the playoff for the first time since 2020, losing the SEC Championship game to Alabama. There's no shortage of motivation for Georgia this season, but key playmakers could sit out here due to suspensions.
On the other side, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney took in all the criticism over the offseason for a lack of transfer portal activity. The Tigers' head coach indicated player development was more important than taking an upperclassman from the portal.
Clemson has recruited at one of the highest levels in the nation, finishing top-11 every season since 2017.
While depth can be added from the transfer portal, Swinney has yet to have a position group that needs instant production.
The portal narrative and Clemson's poor starting performance a year ago have created a delta in the market. The question remains if the Tigers are still national title contenders or just a perennial favorite to win the ACC Championship.
Clemson vs Georgia Preview
Clemson Tigers Betting Preview
From DeShaun Watson to Trevor Lawrence, the Tigers faithful are patiently waiting for the emergence of quarterback Cade Klubnik.
The junior may have figured out coordinator Garrett Riley’s system in the second half of 2023, committing just four of his 17 total turnover-worthy plays in the last five games of the season.
The overall season numbers show Clemson's skill positions powering the scoreboard, as Klubnik completed just 12 big-time throws against 19 touchdown passes.
Starting in Week 9 against NC State, the Westlake High School alum began catching fire against Notre Dame, North Carolina and South Carolina.
Klubnik also completed a number of explosives in the spring game, potentially forecasting his season.
Expectations for Cade Klubnik this season?
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) April 9, 2024
After multiple years of being buried on the depth chart, the Phil Mafah era has taken off for Clemson's rushing attack. The senior had 167 attempts last season with an average of 3.8 yards after contact while creating 40 missed tackles.
The showcase game for Mafah came against a top-20 rush defense in Notre Dame, as the running back collected 188 yards on the ground, including 116 yards after first contact.
Riley called rush on 52% of snaps, utilizing heavy inside and outside zone read concepts.
Clemson returned 70% of snaps to the offensive line, encompassing four starters with more than 100 career starts. More importantly, former Georgia offensive line coach Matt Luke is now on the Clemson staff and highly revered by Smart.
The biggest issue in the passing game over recent years was the receivers' ability to create separation from defenders.
Slot Antonio Williams returns after a shortened 2023 season, posting 67 career receptions with an average of 1.8 yards per route run. Tight end Jake Briningstool garnered the second-most targets last season, posting a team-high five touchdown receptions.
But the buzz in fall camp has been true freshman Bryant Wesco, ranked as the 11th-best wide receiver in the latest recruiting cycle. Per Swinney, Wesco is the “real deal” and has maturity well beyond his age.
On the other side, Georgia's defense is top-10 at every level.
If there's a place to attack the Bulldogs' 3-3-5 scheme, it'ss the defensive line, as injuries will take a toll on depth. Defensive tackles Xzavier McLeod and Jordan Hall will not be available, leaving Warren Brinson to deal with a Clemson offensive line that could be the best in the nation.
Mykel Williams's position change from edge to outside linebacker will leave questions at defensive end, as Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins posted the poorest tackling grade on the entire roster in 106 snaps last year.
The depth chart indicates freshman Joseph Jonah-Ajonye will also start at edge, ranking as the second-best defensive lineman on signing day earlier this season. Inside linebacker Smael Mondon is listed as the starter but could have disciplinary issues that result in a suspension for the Clemson game.
Three starters are also gone from the Bulldogs' secondary, so freshman KJ Bolden will see his first action at the college level.
While no team recruits better than Georgia, there are plenty of inexperienced pockets for Clemson to attack.
Georgia Bulldogs Betting Preview
Smart has reiterated multiple times in media press conferences leading up to kickoff that “We don’t discuss suspensions.”
The scrum of questions surrounds a number of players on both sides of the ball, but Florida transfer tailback Trevor Etienne has been the target of the discussion.
A DUI and reckless driving charge from March is expected to limit the junior's availability against Clemson. The Bulldogs are loaded with talent at every position, but a toe injury and subsequent surgery for running back Roderick Robinson will make the Dawgs lean on depth.
Coordinator Mike Bobo may veer from an even distribution of run and pass to more of an air attack with the return of Heisman-hopeful quarterback Carson Beck.
The junior turned heads in 2023, posting 22 touchdowns to six interceptions, more than doubling his big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate. In 75 dropbacks with pressure, Beck didn't throw an interception and maintained a low 2.4% turnover-worthy play rate.
Although Georgia's offense will lose tight end Brock Bowers, Beck destroyed Cover 3 and Cover 1 with multiple targets. Slot Dominic Lovett returns to Beck’s arsenal after leading the team with 64 targets and recording more than two yards per route run.
Colbie Young flashed as the most explosive wide receiver in the nation through the first half of the season for Miami, Now, he's fully healthy and expected to start for Georgia at wideout.
Former Stanford tight end Benjamin Yurosekwill be tasked with replacing Bowers after lining up all over the field for Cardinal head coach Troy Taylor.
Clemson is expected to field a top-five unit at linebacker and in the defensive backfield.
Defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin's 4-2-5 scheme implemented one of the heaviest usages of man coverage despite fielding true freshmen in the secondary.
Cornerback Avieon Terrell allowed just half of opposing targets to be caught, while strongside linebacker Khalil Barnes was graded as the best coverage defender in 264 opponent passing attempts. No opposing offense wanted to target cornerback Jeadyn Lukus, who generated a large 30% forced incompletion rate on 30 opponent attempts.
Clemson vs Georgia Pick & Prediction
Expected suspensions and injuries have created gaps in Georgia's depth chart.
The Bulldogs offense is expected to attempt early rushing attempts with a depth chart that includes walk-on Cash Jones from Texas. Assuming Clemson's defensive front has success, Georgia will take to the skies against the Tigers' heavy man coverage package.
Beck may be unfamiliar with Clemson's coverage after facing zone in 72% of passing attempts compared to just 15% in man last season.
Georgia's targets must flash explosiveness from the start with Lovett in the slot, Yurosek in the Bowers role and Young at wideout. The battle against a tested and proven Clemson secondary will ultimately determine who covers the game.
Mafah will receive the bulk of the carries for Clemson, looking to take advantage of a Georgia defensive line that's high on talent but low on experience and health.
The Tigers' offensive line ranks as one of the best nationally, but the addition of Luke after previously serving on Georgia's staff as offensive line coach is a bonus for Clemson.
The biggest question is the ability of Clemson targets to create separation — an expectation for a healthy Williams and Wesco.
With suspensions looming for Georgia, the question remains who and how long. Etienne and linebacker Smael Mondon are two names projected to miss playing time.
With Clemson's advantages in the rushing attack from a player and coach perspective, Klubnik may not have a heavy load in passing down situations.
Conversely, Beck didn't see man coverage on a consistent basis last season.
Look for Clemson to show up early in this game, while Georgia attempts to run with a depleted depth chart before turning to the pass.
Pick: Clemson 1H +7 or Better
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Miami vs. Florida Pick, Prediction
Preseason expectations have the Miami Hurricanes and Florida Gators heading in opposite directions.
A victory in the Seminole War Canoe Trophy game will jump-start a 2024 season in which nearly every Power Four program in the state of Florida will play each other.
Head coach Billy Napier has the hottest seat in college football after finishing below .500 in consecutive seasons at Florida. The Gators take home the prize of having the toughest strength of schedule in the nation, facing Central Florida and Florida State outside of a brutal second-half SEC stretch.
With a closing season win total at 4.5, there's not much expectation from oddsmakers that Napier can avoid the unemployment line this holiday season.
Mario Cristobal enters his third season in Coral Gables and is also bringing a losing record into 2024.
Miami is coming off two consecutive top-10 transfer portal hauls as expectations build with significant additions at quarterback and running back. The Hurricanes are expected to make the ACC Championship game and compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Despite winning 12 games over two years, Miami's preseason win total of 9.5 provides no wiggle room for a loss in coin-flip games.
The Hurricanes lead the series 29-27 since both teams first met in 1938. A win by Florida would not only close the series gap but flip the outlook of both programs for the remainder of the season.
That being said, let's get to my Miami vs. Florida prediction.
Miami vs Florida Preview
Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview
Cristobal landed two of the biggest offensive pieces in college football in quarterback Cam Ward of Washington State and running back Damien Martinez of Oregon State.
Ward has had a tumultuous career with the Cougars and Incarnate Word, generating 79 turnover-worthy plays alongside 71 big-time throws. The numbers paint a more chaotic picture on the ground with 16 career rushing touchdowns to 46 fumbles.
Ward never had an offensive line that finished mid-FBS or better in pass blocking, an element that will change in 2024.
The Miami offensive line ranked 10th in pass blocking a season ago, returning more than 120 starts and nearly every snap. Ward's ability to scramble and create explosives should be enhanced by the best projected pass protection in his career.
Is new Miami QB Cam Ward the most likely QB to make a Jayden Daniels-like run to the Heisman and the top of the draft?
— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) July 5, 2024
Martinez was a bulldozer for the Beavers, rushing for more than 2,100 yards in two years of service.
The junior increased his yards after contact to 3.8 with 20% of rushing attempts going for more than 10 yards. While Oregon State ran a heavy amount of outside zone read, Miami is expected to use Martinez with inside zone and man run concepts.
Coordinator Shannon Dawson led Miami to a top-10 rank in standard downs explosives, a statistic that should continue to play out with Ward and Martinez in the fold.
The Florida defense may be ripe for easy rushing attempts after falling out of the top 35 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate. Co-defensive coordinators Ron Roberts and Austin Armstrong have the strength in the secondary to limit the Hurricanes' passing attack.
Safety Jordan Castell, along with cornerbacks Devin Moore and Jason Marshall, produced three pass breakups a piece while placing Florida inside the top 25 in on-target ball allowed.
For the Gators to stop a Hurricanes offense that will improve on a top-30 Quality Drives rank, the defensive front must eliminate extra yards on the ground.
Florida Gators Betting Preview
Graham Mertz enters his sixth season of college football and logged the lowest turnover-worthy play rate of his career at Florida last season.
After spending his first four seasons with Wisconsin, Mertz posted his highest adjusted completion percentage, lowest drop rate and a significant spike in deep ball efficiency.
Even more impressive is an offensive line that finished 78th in pass blocking to go along with the quarterback's rank of eighth in on-target balls.
#Gators starting QB Graham Mertz goes 20 yards and 60 yards, consecutively, to Tre Wilson III for a TD. Smooth look-off and step-in fake on that play. 8/13 for 123 yards now. pic.twitter.com/dkPXfFe0BA
— OnlyGators.com: Florida Gators news (@onlygators) April 13, 2024
The loss of Trevor Etienne to Georgia is a setback for the ground attack, but lead rusher Montrell Johnson Jr. racked up five touchdowns and 3.5 yards after contact.
A split mix of inside and outside zone read will power a running game that often stalled and kept the Gators in passing downs.
The good news for Mertz is a familiar face in the receiving unit, as Wisconsin transfer wideout Chimere Dike reunites with his quarterback, last posting an explosive 2.3 yards per route run in 2022.
Although Ricky Pearsall took his game to the NFL, the Gators return plenty of experienced targets including receivers Kahleil Jackson, Eugene Wilson and tight end Arlis Boardingham for 146 targets and 11 touchdowns from last season.
The Gators will have their hands full with a Hurricanes defensive line that projects as the best in the ACC. Edge Rueben Bain nearly doubled any other Miami defender in pressures, while interior transfers Simeon Barrow and CJ Clark ranked top-100 individually in pass rush productivity.
The area Florida can attack is Miami's secondary, as defensive coordinator Lance Guidry is set to line up highly-recruited Zaquan Patterson at safety. Corner Damari Brown posted one of the worst tackle grades on the roster as a freshman last year.
Miami vs Florida Pick & Prediction
The ability to create Havoc is of supreme importance when handicapping.
Ward has a penchant for ill-advised passing attempts and a career issue of fumbling the ball. Florida finished 101st in Defensive Havoc a season ago, a statistical combination of passes defensed, sacks and tackles for loss.
Edge Princely Umanmielen held the highest sack rate on the team but transferred to Ole Miss. Only 33% of quarterback hits return from a season ago, and those were mostly produced by the secondary on blitz downs.
With Miami fielding a top-10 offensive line, getting Ward to cough up the ball is unlikely.
While Martinez should keep Miami's chains moving, the Florida rushing attack lacks a similar potency. With Etienne in the fold last season, the Gators ranked outside the top 60 in EPA with an offensive line responsible for a Havoc Allowed rank of 93rd.
Mertz led an offense that struggled on third downs, despite posting a career-high in accuracy.
The Action Network power ratings project a 4.5-point victory for Miami — a number not expected to pop in the current market.
Florida has gained popular support at +3. This number is expected to bounce and close within a field goal.
The Gators don't have a clear path to Havoc and won't be a brick wall against rushing attempts, so take Miami in the first battle of Power Four teams within the state of Florida.
Pick: Miami ML -135 or Better
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Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Pick, Prediction
There will be no shortage of personal connections when Notre Dame travels south into SEC territory to face Texas A&M at Kyle Field on Saturday.
New Aggies head coach Mike Elko was a defensive coordinator at Notre Dame before taking the same position in College Station. The A&M staff is full of Elko former assistants at Duke with the exception of coordinators Collin Klein from Kansas State and Jay Bateman, recently of Florida.
Those assistants should have plenty of data on the makeup of the Notre Dame roster, as the Elko-led Blue Devils faced Notre Dame last September.
Current Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman was successful in landing a quarterback from the transfer portal. Unfortunately for A&M, the Irish signal-caller is a former two-year starter for Duke under Elko.
The connections for this opening kick don't end there.
Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock returns to South Bend after leading LSU's offense with Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels. The longtime offensive assistant coached in a game against Texas A&M last season, rattling the Aggies for 42 points to close the 2023 regular season.
So, who holds the advantage in this highly connected game? Let's take a look at my Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M prediction for Saturday, Aug. 31.
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M Preview
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview
Leonard took the ACC by storm in 2022, leading Duke to a nine-win season that included a Military Bowl blowout over UCF.
Not only did Leonard double his big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate, but the quarterback also accounted for 13 rushing touchdowns on 208 scramble yards and 180 yards off designed runs.
A midseason injury to Leonard's foot required multiple surgeries last year, but the quarterback will be at full strength for Week 1.
With this touchdown, Riley is now the second QB in program history with 10+ rushing and 10+ passing touchdowns in a single season!😈 pic.twitter.com/m8z5xifj8L
— Duke Football (@DukeFOOTBALL) November 12, 2022
Leonard enters a Notre Dame offense that has plenty of carryover at the skill positions.
Running back Jadarian Price posted eye-popping numbers — especially considering the sophomore was recovering from an ACL injury. Price averaged 4.6 yards after contact on 47 rushing attempts for the Irish last season.
The youth movement at the wide receiver position lasts season quickly became one of the most mature groups on the roster. Junior tight end Mitchell Evans and sophomore slot Jaden Greenhouse bring back 67 combined targets.
While the skill positions are a positive coming into 2024, the offensive line is expected to take a step back.
The Irish lost their two best offensive linemen with the departure of Joe Alt and Blake Fisher.
To fill the gap, redshirt freshman Charles Jagusah was brought in as one of the highest-rated tackle prospects. However, the Rock Island, Illinois, native suffered a season-ending injury during camp, leaving Notre Dame with plenty of questions.
Per the Notre Dame depth chart, the tackle positions will be filled by Anthonie Knapp and Aamil Wagner.
In a limited sample, Wagner graded out above average on rushing attempts and poorly in pass blocking in 52 offensive snaps. Knapp is a true freshman who was recruited as the eighth-best interior lineman in the country and now serves on the outside to protect Leonard from further injury.
The bad news for the Notre Dame offensive line is that the Texas A&M defensive front is one of the best in FBS.
Elko's 4-2-5 is a familiar scheme for Aggie defenders who have been on the roster in recent years. Former coordinator DJ Durkin arrived when Elko left for Duke, keeping the same defensive scheme, personnel and blitz rate.
Defensive end Nic Scourton was the most highly sought-after piece in the transfer portal. The Havoc generator posted 28 quarterback hurries and eight sacks for Purdue last season.
Defensive interior Shemar Turner returns to College Station for a fourth season, producing 26 quarterback hurries and 35 pressures from the tackle position.
Texas A&M Aggies Betting Preview
Elko pulled Klein from Kansas State to run the Aggies offense.
Texas A&M is expected to look similar to the Wildcats' scheme implemented by Chris Klieman, utilizing plenty of 21 and 22 personnel with a heavy lean toward the rush.
Running back Le'Veon Moss will be expected to take on a workhorse role with an injury to rising star Rueben Owens. Depth remains with junior Amari Daniels, who led the team in attempts despite an unexplosive 2.9 yards after contact.
The biggest question for the Texas A&M offense is the health of quarterback Conner Weigman. A foot injury ended his 2023 campaign in the fourth game of the season against Auburn.
The redshirt sophomore has impressed in two seasons with 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions, maintaining a low turnover-worthy play rate of 3.3% in a pressured pocket.
The offensive line finished the season outside the top 100 in pass protection but landed two transfers from the portal, including 32 career starts from Kansas guard Ar'maj Reed-Adams.
Notre Dame is also expected to field one of the nastiest defensive lines in the country under Freeman's 3-3-5. Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills are the most dangerous interior tag team in the country, combining for 63 pressures in passing downs and 57 stops against the rush.
Graduate seniors will make up the edge positions on the depth chart, while linebacker Jack Kiser returns one of the highest tackle and coverage grades on the team.
The secondary is a strength up the middle with Northwestern transfer safety Rod Heard and the return of first-team All-American free safety Xavier Watts.
Texas A&M's point of attack against ND's Cover 1 will be at sophomore cornerback Christian Gray. While Gray played in 12 games last season, his role was limited to just 198 snaps and 19 opponent targets.
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M Pick & Prediction
Every potential edge exists for Texas A&M's defensive front to create a massive amount of Havoc against a quarterback coming off a foot injury.
Considering the loss of Jagusah on the Irish offensive line, don't expect the Aggies to drop from a rank of fifth in Defensive Havoc.
While the middle of Notre Dame's offensive line returns experience, Leonard and Price will be heavily utilized in Denbrock's inside zone. Turner, Scourton and the remaining cast of the defensive front are expected to crash gaps and force Leonard to play a bigger role in the rushing attack.
Havoc will also be a consistent theme when Texas A&M possesses the ball, particularly with Klein's tendency to run man, power and inside zone schemes with a two-back set.
There may be no better run-stuffing combination in the country than Cross and Mills. Both are expected to go against transfers filling the Aggies' offensive trench.
Notre Dame and Texas A&M will continue to rank top-10 nationally in Defensive Havoc. Pass breakups, interceptions, tackles for loss, forced fumbles, pressures and sacks are the staples of these two programs that have defensive-minded head coaches.
With 10 mph crosswinds and a slight chance of showers projected at Kyle Field, Mother Nature could contribute to the expected Havoc rate of both teams.
It's also worth noting that Weigman hasn't shown the ability to take on designed runs in Texas A&M's offense to date. With Klein as OC, Kansas State often utilized the quarterback in the run game — something that could be asked of the Texas A&M signal-caller early in the game.
Pick: 1H Under 22.5 or Better
