Friday College Football Player Props
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 9 p.m. | |
| 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Kyle Monangai made light work of the Washington run defense, easily cashing our rushing over last week.
Our 13-1 Cam Ward “off night” parlay got off to a great start with an opening drive turnover but went up in smoke in the fourth quarter of the Canes’ classic with Virginia Tech.
So, we're back to the drawing board this week with a surprisingly full Friday night dance card in college football.
Read on for my college football player props for Friday, including picks for UNLV's Ricky White and Michigan State's Aidan Chiles.
Syracuse vs UNLV Player Prop
Ricky White Over 90 Receiving Yards
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’re aware of the melodrama surrounding Matthew Sluka’s exit from the UNLV football team.
The NIL disagreement between the Slukas and UNLV left the Rebs searching for answers at quarterback. But unlike many of their G5 peers, UNLV had more than a backup plan at quarterback — it had an upgrade.
Hajj-Malik Williams nearly won the starting quarterback job in Sin City and is considerably more accurate than Sluka was as a passer. And while his passing props remain modest (182.5 yards, 1.5 TDs), I’m looking to capitalize on his ascension to the top of the depth chart in another way.
If you follow Ricky White III on social media, you would have noticed that he was thrilled with the news that Williams would be throwing him passes this season.
Working with Sluka, the potential All-American receiver was underutilized. White had just 10 receptions in Sluka’s three starts. Enter Williams, and bam — 12 targets, 10 receptions, 127 yards and two touchdowns against Fresno State.
If you’re a regular reader of this column, you know I love to ladder plays when I smell big-time upside, and that’s true with White against a porous Syracuse secondary.
The Orange may rank 63rd against the pass (204.8 YPG), but there’s more to the story. For starters, they have drawn a handful of “aerially challenged” teams in Ohio, Stanford and FCS Holy Cross.
Even with that underwhelming group of passers, their underlying stats are alarming. From a coverage perspective, they check in at 77th, per PFF, and a startling 113th in Passing Success Allowed.
Elijah Robinson is a full-time DC for the first time and has been relying on a feisty pass rush to paper over some of SU’s issues in the passing game. The thing is, UNLV has an elite offensive line and a mobile quarterback who loves to throw on the move.
Trouble is brewing for the Cuse defense in this game, and White is well-positioned to do major damage.
As for this ladder strategy, let’s start with White over 90 receiving yards at +118 for one unit, over 110 yards at +220 for a half-unit and sprinkle a quarter-unit on White surpassing 149.5 yards at +630.
White has seven career games with 150-plus receiving yards, with two coming against Power Four competition.
Pick: Ricky White Over 90 Receiving Yards (+118) · Over 110 Rec. Yards (+220 · Half-Unit) · Over 149.5 Yards (+630 · Quarter-Unit)
Michigan State vs Oregon Player Prop
Aidan Chiles 2+ INTs (+230)
Aidan Chiles is attempting to carry this Spartan offense. When he’s on, as he was against Maryland, he can give this offense real juice in the passing game. He finished 24-for-38 for 363 yards and three scores against the Terps.
But those big games have come at a cost, and that cost has been turnovers.
Through five games he’s already thrown eight interceptions. He’s leading the Big Ten in aerial giveaways, and when you dig into his advanced stats, things only get uglier.
He has 14 turnover-worthy throws this season, averaging three per game against FBS competition.
From a game-script standpoint, Michigan State will be playing from behind in this game as 23.5-point underdogs, and it'll need Chiles to play hero ball with his arm and legs.
That will undoubtedly result in Chiles putting the ball in harm's way.
Well, Oregon’s secondary is already fourth in coverage grade, and it has the benefit of an improving pass rush speeding up quarterbacks. Oregon has just four interceptions on the season, but these advanced stats indicate it could be due for a pick parade against Michigan State.
So, how should we play this one? At -200, I’m not interested in a single interception from Chiles.
Luckily, his interception “milestones” get lucrative from there. One unit on two-plus INTs at +230 is too good to pass up, and a quarter-unit on three-plus picks at +750 is worth a flier as well.
As of writing, rain will have moved through the area before kickoff. By 6 p.m. local time, we’re looking at partly cloud skies and a light breeze at kickoff.
Assuming the rain doesn’t linger, Michigan State will likely put the ball in Chiles' hands and let him reach his attempts average at the very least in this game (27). The more passes he puts in orbit, the better our prop bet looks on Friday night.
Pick: Aidan Chiles 2+ INTs (+230) · 3+ INTs (+750 · Quarter-Unit)
