We’re almost at the end of the regular season road, but a handful of PrizePicks still piqued my interest in Week 12.
This week, I'll be giving a backup running back his due. Then, I’m finding an alternative way to cash in on an Ollie Gordon II breakout performance. Finally, I’m targeting one of the nation’s best-kept secrets at wide receiver.
Week 12 College Football PrizePicks
In the table below, you'll find each of Mike Calabrese's top PrizePicks plays from Saturday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific play discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 12 p.m. | |
| 4 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Michigan vs. Maryland
Donovan Edwards
More Than 0.5 Rush Touchdowns
This is simply about opportunity and garbage time.
Donovan Edwards has scored on the ground in three of his last four games as the Wolverines’ backup running back. In those games, he’s totaled 33 carries, eight of which came in goal-to-go situations.
He gets goal-line touches when the game is in doubt, and he gets the feature-back treatment when Michigan is kicking the stuffing out of their opponents.
That bodes well for this play when facing Maryland’s 77th-rated run defense (by Rush Success Rate allowed).
Maryland also has looked a bit lost offensively, scoring just 28 points in the past two weeks. The chances for the Michigan defense to shut them down ultimately seem high.
If you can find a receiving + rushing touchdown prop, there’s added value there, given his involvement in the passing game (27 targets this year).
But even if he’s solely a ground-and-pound weapon, I would play this square.
Pick: Donovan Edwards More Than 0.5 Rush Touchdowns
Oklahoma State vs. Houston
Alan Bowman
Less Than 267 Pass Yards (Play to 265.5)
When I looked at the board this week, I hoped for a depressed number on Ollie Gordon II’s rushing total.
He was coming off a down week against the UCF defense. The Knights stacked the box against him and were unafraid of Bowman through the air because of poor weather conditions. As a result, Gordon ran for just 25 yards.
But Gordon's total this week is sitting at a reasonably high 135.5 yards. So, I’m coming up with another angle.
When Oklahoma State is punching above its weight, and by that, I mean playing a nationally ranked opponent, they’ve needed Bowman to throw the ball a lot. Against Kansas and Oklahoma, he attempted 83 total passes and averaged 335 yards passing.
But his attempts and yardage fall off when Gordon II gets cooking and the Pokes control the game.
Take, for example, his stat lines in blowouts of Cincinnati and West Virginia in the past month. In those games, his attempts dropped into the mid-30s, and his yardage through the air averaged out at 248.
Houston will be powerless to stop Gordon, and on the whole, they’re a team in freefall at 4-6 overall. I think Oklahoma State and Gordon will jump on them early and reduce Bowman to a game manager.
It’s also worth noting that OSU has used three quarterbacks this season, so any further turnover problems for Bowman (8:8 TD-INT ratio) could result in the hook and an auto-win on this square.
Pick: Alan Bowman Less Than 267 Pass Yards (Play to 265.5)
Syracuse vs. Georgia Tech
Eric Singleton Jr.
More Than 64.5 Rec Yards (Play to 70.5)
Georgia Tech needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility, and with UGA on deck next week, this is the only realistic chance.
How are they going to beat Syracuse? Through the air.
The Orange are 55th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 89th in pass yards per game allowed (237.5).
But the key here is that Syracuse lets up huge pass plays every game. They’ve given up 10 pass plays of 40+ yards this season.
Guess what Eric Singleton’s Jr.’s calling card is? The big play.
This kid has been outstanding for the Ramblin’ Wreck as a true freshman. He has hit at least one reception of 40 yards or more in half of his starts this season and has quickly become Haynes King’s favorite target. In the last three weeks, he’s been targeted 29 times, which ties him with Florida’s Eugene Wilson for most targets by a freshman in the past three contests.
I would play this number up to 70.5. I think he’ll clear 80 yards against Syracuse in this do-or-die game for Georgia Tech.
