NC State vs Virginia Odds
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -305 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +245 |
Friday Night Lights has been kind to us from a betting perspective this season.
We have another fantastic matchup between two ACC foes as NC State travels to Charlottesville looking to build momentum against a Virginia team that has yet to record its first win.
The Wolfpack are coming off a 45-7 clobbering of VMI, a critical get-right game for quarterback Brennan Armstrong, who was coming off a poor performance against Notre Dame.
Unfortunately, Virginia’s offensive production isn't compensating enough for their lousy defensive play. The Cavaliers have allowed an average of 42.3 points in their three losses.
To determine if NC State will continue to build on its performance from Week 2, or if Virginia can finally find some consistency, let's look at the odds and make a prediction for the NC State Wolfpack vs. the Virginia Cavaliers.
NC State Wolfpack
The story so far this season for the Wolfpack has been the success they have had offensively. First-year offensive coordinator Robert Anae reunited this offseason with Armstrong. The duo saw similar success during their time together at Virginia in 2021.
The duo returns to Charlottesville with an offense that ranks 13th nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate and 40th in Points per Opportunity.
Against a stout Notre Dame defense, the Wolfpack posted a respectable 4 Points per Opportunity but were ultimately outpaced due to turnovers.
Armstrong and company have to like this matchup against a Cavaliers defense that ranks among the worst college football teams in Success Rate allowed, Points per Opportunity allowed and Havoc generated.
In particular, Virginia’s secondary, which lost vital All-ACC starters in cornerbacks Fentrell Cypress and Anthony Johnson, has struggled mightily to replace production. As a result, Virginia is allowing 260 passing yards per game.
It is important to note that Virginia has faced a demanding schedule to start the season, with games against Tenessee, James Madison and Maryland. But we should still expect continued struggles from this defense on Friday night.
Virginia has played three games in a row where its defense struggled to get off the field, and I don't see that changing against an NC State offense with two former Cavaliers at the helm.
Virginia Cavaliers
This handicap ultimately comes down to what type of production Virginia will be able to generate on offense. Can they keep up with NC State?
So far, the Cavaliers have relied heavily on explosive plays to get points on the board. Virginia ranks sixth nationally in offensive explosiveness, generating 20.7 points per game through three weeks.
After starting the season with senior quarterback Tony Muskett, the Cavaliers have turned to freshman Anthony Colandrea in its past two games. Colandrea has posted a QBR of 61.5 and racked up 652 passing yards alongside a 3:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
As of writing, it's unclear who will be the starter Friday night, but one has to believe Colandrea showed enough against Maryland in Week 2 to surpass an underwhelming Muskett, who is also battling injury.
With Colandrea at the helm, Virginia posted a 1.88 Explosiveness rating of 1.88 against James Madison and 1.51 against Maryland.
I expect more explosive plays from Virginia against an NC State defense that ranks 111th in explosiveness allowed.
In addition, NC State’s defense has been lousy in the red zone, ranking 125th nationally in Points per Opportunity allowed.
Virginia can generate explosive plays and punch the ball in when it matters most. I expect the Cavaliers to turn big plays into points Friday night.
NC State vs Virginia
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how NC State and Virginia match up statistically:
NC State Offense vs. Virginia Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 128 | |
| Line Yards | 36 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 66 | 125 | |
| Havoc | 59 | 117 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 129 | |
| Quality Drives | 40 | 118 | |
Virginia Offense vs. NC State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 132 | 75 | |
| Line Yards | 124 | 47 | |
| Pass Success | 112 | 61 | |
| Havoc | 131 | 40 | |
| Finishing Drives | 95 | 123 | |
| Quality Drives | 123 | 54 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 59 | 100 |
| PFF Coverage | 79 | 74 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 113 | 128 |
| Middle 8 | 37 | 69 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.5 (61) | 28.9 (94) |
| Rush Rate | 53.3% (69) | 54.1% (90) |
NC State vs Virginia
Betting Pick & Prediction
This NC State defense is arguably the best Virginia has faced this season.
However, I liked what I saw out of Colandrea in a high-scoring, fast-paced game against Maryland a week ago.
I think this Virginia offense will find the end zone enough to cash Over 47.5. NC State’s duo of Armstrong and Anae will look to score on every possession, ultimately forcing Virginia to play catch up by turning to its explosive play ability.
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