Nevada vs Texas State Odds
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -115 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -105 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -900 |
The winless Wolf Pack head to San Marcos to take on a Texas State program that is surging on offense.
This is a rematch in two ways. Last year, Nevada beat the Bobcats in Reno but lost to new Texas State coach G.J. Kinne when he was at FCS Incarnate Word.
Texas State is favored by 17, and the metrics expect the Bobcats to win going away. But what’s the best way to actually bet Nevada vs. Texas State game? Let’s look at the odds and make a pick in the NCAAF betting preview for Saturday, Sept. 23.
Nevada Wolf Pack
Things aren't going well for football at the University of Nevada, Reno. The Wolf Pack have lost 13 straight games and haven't won since Week 2 of last season — against Texas State.
But that was a different Texas State team, one that was limping to the end of the Jake Spavital era. The week after that win, Nevada lost, 55-41, to now-Texas State head coach G.J. Kinne’s Incarnate Word team.
Brendon Lewis, a transfer from Colorado, starts at quarterback for Nevada. He’s not a good passer and has made two Big-Time Throws and seven Turnover-Worthy Plays this season. His QBR sits at 29.0. He can get around and move, but he's also liable to take sacks (20% career pressure-to-sack ratio for his career), which undermine the good things he does with his legs.
Nevada has scored only five touchdowns through three games, and its two leading tailbacks — Sean Dollars and Ashton Hayes — are averaging only 3.54 yards per carry.
The defense might be even worse (at least the offense has been able to generate some big plays via Lewis’s rushing) as there's no metric where Nevada stands out. The Wolf Pack are average in creating Havoc (38th in FBS), but everything else is outside the top 100.
This might be one of the most forgiving defenses in the FBS this season.
Texas State Bobcats
While Deion Sanders has rightfully received heaps of praise for the instant turnaround in Boulder, Kinne similarly flipped his roster.
His new-look team beat Baylor in Week 1, struggled with a quality UTSA defense and then destroyed FCS Jackson State in Week 3.
Kinne’s system — a spread, QB-run, high-tempo system — is designed to create big plays and TJ Finley is thriving in it. The Auburn transfer has completed 68% of his passes for 760 yards. He has a 76.8 QBR with six touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s also chipped in three scores on the ground.
The offense is also well-balanced. The Bobcats are 27th in Success Rate and 21st in explosive plays. More important, they're tops in Finishing Drives. They also do all this quickly and rank 11th in seconds per play.
The defense has been average and is susceptible to the pass, but we already discussed Nevada’s lack of a passing attack. Meanwhile, Texas State’s run defense is solid.
Nevada vs Texas State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nevada and Texas State match up statistically:
Nevada Offense vs. Texas State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 128 | 29 | |
| Line Yards | 130 | 24 | |
| Pass Success | 102 | 97 | |
| Havoc | 133 | 13 | |
| Finishing Drives | 111 | 80 | |
| Quality Drives | 108 | 109 |  |
Texas State Offense vs. Nevada Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 35 | 129 | |
| Line Yards | 48 | 125 | |
| Pass Success | 24 | 133 | |
| Havoc | 94 | 119 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 128 | |
| Quality Drives | 43 | 133 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 132 | 83 |
| PFF Coverage | 132 | 55 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 126 | 15 |
| Middle 8 | 93 | 46 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.9 (82) | 22.9 (11) |
| Rush Rate | 51.6% (41) | 56.2% (61) |
Nevada vs Texas State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Nevada is a huge underdog for a reason. It hasn't won a football game in over a year, the QB play is uninspiring and there aren't any encouraging underlying metrics.
Texas State’s offense has all the matchup advantages and a tempo advantage that will lead to a lot of scoring opportunities.
My favorite play is to take the Texas State team total over, which is currently 38.5 at DraftKings. This team is going into the 40s against Nevada.
The metric I keep coming back to is Finishing Drives. Nevada’s defense ranks 128th in that metric, while Texas State’s offense is first. The Bobcats will put the ball in the end zone.
