Syracuse vs Florida State Odds
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +725 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
Syracuse began the season with four consecutive victories, all of which were by double digits. However, it's been outscored 71-21 in losses to Clemson and North Carolina in the last two weeks.
Syracuse could be in for another long afternoon as it heads to Tallahassee to battle the No. 4 Florida State Seminoles.
Florida State improved to 5-0 with a 39-17 victory over Virginia Tech last week. It failed to cover as a 24-point favorite, but it's 3-2 against the spread this season.
Florida State has controlled this series of late, as it's won nine of the last 10 meetings and covered in six of them.
This time, the Noles are a double-digit favorite again, but I see more value on the total.
Syracuse Orange
The Syracuse offense has been most successful when it involves quarterback Garrett Shrader in the running game. The fifth-year senior set career highs with 195 rushing yards and four touchdowns against Purdue.
However, he's run for just 52 yards on two yards per carry over his last two games, and coincidentally, the team is averaging 10.5 points per game over its last two.
Shrader is second on the team with 395 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Running back LeQuint Allen leads the team with 401 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Syracuse ranks 39th in Rushing Explosiveness but just 74th in Rushing Success Rate.
In that area, it has a fairly even matchup with Florida State, which ranks 75th in Rushing Success Rate on defense. However, Florida State is 86th in Tackling per PFF, so Syracuse may be able to create explosive plays with broken tackles.
Shrader is also completing 64.6% of his passes. He has a solid trio of receivers in Umari Hatcher, Damien Alford and Donovan Brown. Hatchers leads the group with 310 receiving yards and two touchdowns. All have great length and are capable of making contested catches on the perimeter.
However, Shrader will need time to connect on those vertical passes. He's been sacked 14 times this season, with six coming in the last two weeks.
Syracuse ranks 80th in Havoc Allowed, and this week, it will have to keep Jared Verse out of the backfield. The likely top-10 pick had two sacks last week against Virginia Tech.
Syracuse can get after opposing passers, as well, as it's tied for 19th in the FBS with 18 sacks. Five players already have two sacks, led by the 3.5 from sophomore linebacker Leon Lowery.
Despite its recent struggles, Syracuse's defense has been solid this season overall. It ranks in the top 35 in Line Yards, Havoc, Rushing Success Rate, Passing Success Rate, Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.
It's also fifth in Tackling grade and 17th in Coverage grade.
Florida State Seminoles
Last week, Syracuse had a tough assignment against North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, and he lit the Orange up for 440 yards and three touchdown passes.
It will not get any easier this week for the Orange, as they have to deal with Jordan Travis. The senior is completing 63% of his passes and has thrown 12 touchdown passes against just one interception.
Additionally, his receivers are far better than North Carolina's.
Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman make up one of the five best receiver duos in the country. They each have 20 catches, with Wilson leading the team with 357 yards and Coleman leading the team with six touchdowns.
With their massive frames, Wilson (6-foot-7) and Coleman (6-foot-4) are tough to handle because 50-50 balls are more like 80-20, giving Travis more margin for error.
Like Maye, Travis also offers dual-threat ability in the running game. However, he could use more help from his running game. The Seminoles are 107th in Rushing Success Rate, which has created long yardage situations.
Having Wilson and Coleman helps along with Trey Benson. The junior tailback only had 186 rushing yards through his first four games, but he surpassed that total last week against Virginia Tech. He went for 200 yards on the strength of a pair of long touchdowns (62 and 85 yards) and earned ACC Offensive Player of the Week.
Florida State ranks third nationally in Rushing Explosiveness.
Offensive line play has been a problem for Florida State for many years, but this year, it's been its best unit in Mike Norvell's tenure. Florida State is seventh in Havoc Allowed and Travis has been sacked just five times in five games.
With improved offensive line play and its explosive skill group, it's no surprise that FSU is also sixth in Finishing Drives.
Florida State ranks 26th in Havoc defensively, and I have mentioned how Verse can wreck a game. However, it's linebacker Kalen DeLoach who leads the team with 26 tackles and three sacks.
The team also got senior safety Akeem Dent back from injury last week and he forced a fumble in his return.
Syracuse vs Florida State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Syracuse and Florida State match up statistically:
Syracuse Offense vs. Florida State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 74 | 75 |  |
| Line Yards | 91 | 35 | |
| Pass Success | 53 | 26 | |
| Havoc | 80 | 26 | |
| Finishing Drives | 54 | 47 | |
| Quality Drives | 54 | 51 | |
Florida State Offense vs. Syracuse Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 107 | 32 | |
| Line Yards | 101 | 22 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 20 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 28 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 21 | |
| Quality Drives | 29 | 35 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 5 | 86 |
| PFF Coverage | 17 | 35 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 37 | 2 |
| Middle 8 | 27 | 1 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.8 (15) | 28.6 (92) |
| Rush Rate | 55.8% (40) | 51.8% (68) |
Syracuse vs Florida State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Florida State has scored at least 31 points in every game this season, and I don't see that trend ending this week. With its big play offense, it should score in bunches against Syracuse.
Additionally, Florida State is also the best team in the country in the Middle Eight. A two-minute drill will likely result in points, and it may steal 10 points during the whole segment.
However, Florida State's defense — while talented — is not without flaws. The biggest of its struggles is tackling. Missed tackles against a Syracuse team that wants to run the football may turn into sustained drives and points.
The Orange may also want to play keep away from Florida State to help its chances of pulling the upset, but Dino Babers' teams have generally played at a fast pace.
Additionally, Shrader has already thrown five interceptions this season, and turnovers could lead to more quick points for Florida State.
With these factors and a clear weather forecast, I have to back the over. The over is 4-1 in Florida State games this season, and the lone miss came by a single point against Clemson.
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