UAB vs Navy Odds
| UAB Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 53.5 -105o / -115u | -135 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 53.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
Here's everything you need to know about UAB vs Navy on Saturday, Nov. 11 — our expert prediction and betting picks.
Finally, Trent Dilfer got us back on track last week with UAB's win over Florida Atlantic.
I'm assuming Dilfer spent the majority of the bye week prior to that matchup in his local Applebee's, but I know for certain he didn't spend a second with his defensive staff. The Blazers squeaked out a 45-42 win last week, but it should have been a much larger margin of victory.
This week the UAB Blazers will head to Annapolis, Maryland, where they will take on the Navy Midshipmen. Navy was absolutely trucked last week by Temple, so I have a feeling we may see a much more inspired effort in this matchup.
Find my betting pick, prediction and preview for UAB vs. Navy below.
UAB Blazers
These are my favorite articles to write each week because not only do I get to dunk all over Dilfer like Vince Carter, but these Blazers games might be the easiest games to handicap. It's not as complicated as many think because the head coach is a complete airhead who completely ignores two out of the three units of his football team.
Yes, we foolishly took an under on a UAB game a couple of weeks back. However, whenever quarterback Jacob Zeno is under center we are always going to be primed for explosive plays.
Dilfer continues to let Zeno air it out, and he threw for 484 yards and five touchdowns last week. He is now completing 76% of his passes on the season and has nearly eclipsed 2400 passing yards despite missing a start.
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This week's approach won't change against the Navy, as the Midshipmen are one of the worst teams in the nation in Passing Success Rate Allowed (121st). Navy has been elite against the run, which isn't uncommon for a service academy team, but the Blazers only run the ball 48% of the time.
The issue for the Blazers offense is they are still allowing a ton of Havoc, an area where they are among the bottom 25 in the entire country. Navy does not create a ton of their own Havoc, but this is an area that the Blazers could struggle with in this matchup.
You all already know the story about this Blazers defense, and this could be another week they get completely destroyed. This is the worst team in the country against the run, and that's horrific news going against a service academy.
Not only do the Blazers have to be mindful of allowing explosive runs, but Navy could also dominate the time of possession. With the new clock rules, Navy could easily hold on to the ball for 40 minutes in this contest if they establish methodical drives.
Do we really think Dilfer is going to have his team prepared to play against a service academy offense in one week? There's a better chance of him becoming an activist for anger management awareness.
Navy Midshipmen
I'm stunned to see that Navy is getting so much love from the market despite its defense getting shredded by Temple last week. Maybe it's because everyone has finally realized how awful the Blazers defense is.
Quarterback Xavier Arline surprisingly threw the ball 14 times last week, but he only completed six passes with a 24.4 QBR. I wouldn't expect that many passing attempts in this matchup, especially given how horrific the Blazers run defense is.
This has all of the makings of Navy completely dominating this game by controlling the clock. They do a terrific job of preventing Havoc (28th), and the Blazers defense does not create any either, which should lead to a lot of methodical drives.
The offense isn't as crisp as Navy teams in years past, and I honestly think Tai Lavatai is the best quarterback on the roster. However, I'm comfortable in Arline mostly because I doubt Navy will throw the ball much.
Defensively, the Midshipmen should eliminate any sort of Blazers rushing attack. They doesn't force a ton of Havoc, but they're good enough to create issues for the Blazers all afternoon. As good as Zeno has been, I could easily see a scenario where he is under duress all afternoon.
The secondary is a mess, so if Zeno has a clean pocket all afternoon, I doubt Navy's offense will keep up. Controlling the clock will be the biggest key to victory in this spot for Navy.
UAB vs Navy
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UAB and Navy match up statistically:
UAB Offense vs. Navy Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 26 | |
| Line Yards | 7 | 18 | |
| Pass Success | 20 | 121 | |
| Havoc | 107 | 73 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 32 | |
| Quality Drives | 51 | 24 | |
Navy Offense vs. UAB Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 113 | 133 | |
| Line Yards | 117 | 130 | |
| Pass Success | 133 | 79 | |
| Havoc | 29 | 78 | |
| Finishing Drives | 107 | 123 | |
| Quality Drives | 96 | 132 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 81 | 126 |
| PFF Coverage | 105 | 77 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 85 | 14 |
| Middle 8 | 54 | 72 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.4 (20) | 30.2 (121) |
| Rush Rate | 48.6% (108) | 75.0% (3) |
UAB vs Navy
Betting Pick & Prediction
I have no choice but to fade Dilfer in this spot. This is a great bounce-back opportunity for Navy, and this type of matchup can help the Midshipmen offense get back into rhythm.
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It's definitely a contrarian pick, but I have no faith in the Blazers defense to contain the Navy rushing attack. The Blazers are the worst run defense in the nation by Rush Success Rate Allowed, and they only have one week to prepare for a triple-option offense. The Blazers also rank among the 15 worst defenses in the nation in Quality Drives Allowed, Finishing Drives Allowed and Line Yards as well.
I expect Navy to control the clock and completely dominate the time of possession while Zeno remains on the sideline for most of the afternoon. It's always a great pleasure to fade Dilfer.
