Utah vs. Oregon Odds
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +192 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -235 |
By Dan Keegan
The biggest game of the week takes us to Utah’s Rice-Eccles Stadium, a place where conference championship dreams go to die. Oregon and Utah meet in a Pac-12 and College Football Playoff elimination game, as both teams are 6-1 and ranked in the top 15.
For the Ducks, this is an opportunity to get back on track as a -6.5 favorite after their razor-thin loss to Washington. It’s also a chance to vanquish a foe that has stood in their way in recent years, claiming recent conference crowns.
For Kyle Whittingham’s Utes, it’s yet another opportunity to show how foolish it is to count out this program. When all the hype this offseason has gone to the Heisman-hopeful quarterbacks and prolific offenses, once again the Utes might be alone on top when the dust has cleared.
The defense is excellent, and the offense is rounding into form thanks to converted safety-turned-running back Sione Vaki.
The Ducks won this matchup last year in Eugene, but their pair of losses in 2021 still hurt. Recent matchups between these two have broken tendency with the league’s usual high-flying ways, as these are the most powerful trench teams out west.
Like the previous matchups, this game promises to be a righteous collision of agile beef.
Utah is a home underdog in a place where it's won 27 games in a row. Is that line foolish?
We polled our team of 12 college football experts to find some consensus in the matchup. Our team is in strong alignment on both a side and a total. Let’s dive into the analysis.
Utah vs. Oregon Spread
Oregon -6.5
Kyle Whittingham deserves major kudos for this Utah team.
The Utes are currently held together on offense by duct tape with a pig farmer at quarterback who had to work at Lowe’s last year to pay for his education. And yet somehow, a 6-1 Utah team controls its own destiny for the Pac-12 title.
But even with all that said, our staff is taking the Ducks this weekend.
Oregon brings one of the best offenses in the country to Rice-Eccles Stadium, led by Bo Nix. The Ducks are second nationally in scoring offense (47.0 points per game) and total offense (551.6 yards per game), and they’re efficient and balanced doing so, ranking top six in both Rush and Pass Success Rate.
Nix leads the nation in completion percentage (78.4%) and is the only quarterback with a touchdown-to-interception ratio better than 15-1.
But what about Road Bo Nix? After all, the Utes are 29-1 in their last 30 at home.
Road Bo Nix is a tired argument since the former Auburn quarterback transferred westward. As a Duck at home (10 games), Nix has completed 74.7% of his passes for 261.2 yards per game and has thrown 28 touchdowns to two picks. On the road as a Duck (8 games), Nix has completed 75.8% of his passes for 336.5 yards per game and has thrown 18 touchdowns to three picks.
Nix will be just fine in Salt Lake City, and he has a pair of talented rushers in Bucky Irving and Jordan James — who both average at least 7.5 yards per carry — to help.
Then there’s the question of how good this Utah offense will really be against a quality Oregon defense.
Bryson Barnes has had two of the best performances of his career in the last two weeks, but the only problem is they came against a pair of teams that are 88th and 107th nationally in total defense.
Most of Utah’s success last week came via explosive plays, as it recorded 13 explosives against USC. That’s unlikely to happen against an Oregon defense that's top-25 in defending plays of at least 20 yards in length.
Even with the home boost for the Utes, defense travels, and Utah is likely going to struggle to move the ball.
Oregon has one of the best offensive lines in the country that can negate the strong Utah front seven, and the Ducks offense doesn’t make enough mistakes to keep a low-scoring Utah team in this.
The Bryson Barnes story has been fun, but he just doesn’t have enough to hang within a touchdown of Oregon.
Utah vs. Oregon Over/Under
Over 47.5 | 8 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 47.5 | 3 Picks |
Over 47.5
A cursory glance at the two teams and a myopic jog down memory lane might lead you to believe that the under is the play in this high-altitude affair. However, our staff likes backing the over as these two teams tussle to keep their Pac-12 Championship dreams alive.
Sometimes you have to tear apart the advanced analytics to find the inefficiencies in a market, and other times, they jump right out at you. In this instance, there are surface-level trends and advanced stats that support our thesis for this over bet.
Firstly, this total does not go over without a strong showing from Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. We have plenty of reason to believe that Nix, a Heisman Trophy frontrunner, will have an excellent showing.
Behind Nix, Oregon ranks fifth in the nation in Passing Downs PPA (0.65) and should be able to stress the 56th-ranked Utah passing defense (217.4 YPG) on Saturday afternoon.
Secondly, Utah has gotten things going on offense in recent weeks after accepting the fact that the return of Cam Rising was likely nothing more than a mirage. The Utes have pieced together back-to-back 30-plus-point performances in recent contests.
Dual-threat quarterback Bryson Barnes is seemingly settling into the playbook, and depth at running back is coming from all facets of the team — namely, Sione Vaki's transition from the secondary to the backfield.
With a run rate of 56.6%, Utah will be able to use the ground game to open up passing lanes for Barnes as the game progresses.
Thirdly, and simply put, the Oregon defense leaves something to be desired, especially on the road.
In three games away of Eugene, the Ducks have given up an average of 24 points per game. In what should be a hostile environment for the Oregon defense, a two-handle on the scoreboard for the Utes should bode extremely well for the over.
With the 62nd-ranked pass rush in FBS, per PFF, Utah should be able to find the time to make plays.
Our Action Network PRO Model projects the total for this contest at 51.2 points, offering a nice margin to where the market is currently being made for the total.
With the weather forecasted to be partly cloudy and in the mid-40s, we recommend taking the over. Points should come a little easier for both programs than in years past.
