It's time to look at the Virginia vs. Louisville odds and make a prediction and pick for Thursday night's college football game.
Virginia vs Louisville Betting Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +800 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -1400 |
In just his first year, favorite son Jeff Brohm has Louisville on the brink of heading to the ACC Promised Land for the first time in program history.
The Cardinals control their destiny for the right to play Florida State in the conference championship game.
Louisville (8-1) has a double-digit win over Notre Dame on its resume and has rebounded in the last two weeks since its disaster performance at Pitt.
It’s been anything but a similar program turnaround for Tony Elliott and Virginia. The Cavaliers (2-7) are just 5-14 in his two-year tenure and appear destined again to finish the season with just a single conference victory.
Louisville’s defense has been dynamite in consecutive games. Does it show up for a third straight game? Or do the Cardinals get caught turning their attention toward a matchup against Miami in Coral Gables?
Virginia Cavaliers
Last Saturday went about as poorly as it could have possibly gone for Virginia.
Not only did the Cavaliers lose by 28 points to Georgia Tech, but starting quarterback Tony Muskett was injured in the process, forcing Tony Elliott to burn the redshirt of freshman Anthony Colandrea.
Colandrea, who is a promising prospect and has a much higher ceiling than Muskett, finished the game with 200 yards on 21-of-37 passing with two touchdowns and an interception.
But while the upside is there with the freshman, so too is the downside.
Colandrea plays with reckless abandon and can make some really poor decisions as a passer. His seven interceptions are tied for the fourth-most in the ACC despite playing in only five games.
But he’s also sixth in the conference with six completions of 40-plus yards because he’s not afraid to sling it — it’s a double-edged sword.
Colandrea and Muskett were listed with an "OR" designation on this week's depth chart for the starting quarterback position, but with a short week, I lean toward the former getting the nod against Louisville.
If nothing else, the Cavaliers offense can’t be much worse. Their 23.1 points per game is the 10th-best in the ACC, and they have virtually no running game to speak of, ranking 94th in Success Rate.
Virginia’s defense has performed even worse than its offense. Only Georgia Tech allows more yards than the Cavaliers in the ACC, and the Hoos are outside of the top 80 in both Run and Pass Success Allowed.
The Yellow Jackets rushed for a whopping 305 yards last week, the third team to run for more than 200 yards against Virginia. That’s a recipe for disaster against a Louisville team that’s eclipsed that number four times this season, including each of the last two weeks.
Louisville Cardinals
It can’t get much sweeter for Brohm, a former Louisville quarterback, to have his team in position to play for an ACC Championship.
Since slipping on the banana peel at Pittsburgh, the Cardinals haven’t allowed a touchdown in eight straight quarters while outscoring the competition, 57-3.
The efficient Cardinals offense continues to roll, regardless of who is or isn’t injured. Last week against Virginia Tech, the ACC’s second-leading rusher, Jawhar Jordan, was rendered ineffective with a bum hamstring.
In his place, backup running back Isaac Guerendo rushed for 146 yards and three touchdowns on just 11 carries for a Louisville offense that ranks 22nd in Rush Success.
The balanced offense is not to be dismissed at the quarterback position with veteran Jack Plummer. Plummer only needed to throw it 12 times in the Cardinals’ rout of the Hokies, but he averages nearly 250 yards passing a game for a team that ranks 17th in Pass Success.
Louisville’s defense has really stepped up the last two weeks, albeit against a hobbled Duke quarterback and a less-than-spectacular Virginia Tech offense. The Cardinals surrendered just 342 total yards combined against the Blue Devils and Hokies.
The last two weeks have bumped Louisville up to second in the conference in both scoring defense (16.3 points per game) and total defense (285.2 yards per game).
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Virginia vs Louisville
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia and Louisville match up statistically:
Virginia Offense vs Louisville Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 94 | 14 | |
| Line Yards | 83 | 6 | |
| Pass Success | 63 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 125 | 47 | |
| Finishing Drives | 86 | 78 | |
| Quality Drives | 80 | 5 | |
Louisville Offense vs Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 22 | 120 | |
| Line Yards | 65 | 122 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 86 | |
| Havoc | 45 | 109 | |
| Finishing Drives | 60 | 103 | |
| Quality Drives | 14 | 112 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 64 | 24 |
| PFF Coverage | 83 | 75 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 73 | 58 |
| Middle 8 | 103 | 87 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.7 (64) | 29.2 (104) |
| Rush Rate | 54.8% (76) | 58.2% (27) |
Virginia vs Louisville
Betting Prediction, Pick
Surely, Louisville’s defense has to allow a touchdown at some point this week, right? I think the Cardinals do finally surrender a touchdown playing against a quarterback who's always swinging for the fences.
Muskett and Colandrea were listed with an "OR" on the depth chart this week, relating to Muskett's day-to-day injury status. I tend to think now that Colandrea's redshirt status is burned, he will play.
And while Colandrea may break the Cardinals' secondary for one or two huge plays, he’s also extremely likely to turn it over. The Louisville defense is third in the ACC with 10 interceptions, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see it force a pair of picks from the Virginia quarterback who has six INTs in his last three games.
The short week also compounds issues for the Hoos. They were bullied for 305 yards rushing by Georgia Tech on Saturday, so it’d make sense for a Louisville team that only threw it 12 times last week to go right back to that same strategy.
The Cardinals have already stumbled against a bad ACC team this season, but it’s not going to happen again against Virginia.
Pick: Louisville -20 (Play to -21)
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