College Football Picks for Wednesday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
For the final time of the 2024 college football season, Conference USA action will grace our television screens and bet slips on a Wednesday night.
Before we know it, MACtion will be here to take over. But before we get there, let's make the most of this CUSAction while we still can.
Wednesday's game features two games with two teams tied for first place in the conference standings: First-place Jacksonville State vs. Liberty and Kennesaw State vs. first-place Western Kentucky.
Action Network contributor Brett Pund came through with a best bet for both games, so let's dive into our Wednesday college football predictions — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more college football betting coverage.
Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Pick for Wednesday
By Brett Pund
Two of the top teams in Conference USA meet on Wednesday night when the Liberty Flames (5-1, 3-1 CUSA) and Jacksonville State Gamecocks (4-3, 3-0) battle in Lynchburg.
The Flames lost their first regular-season game under head coach Jamey Chadwell with a 27-24 upset loss to Kennesaw State last week.
Meanwhile, the Gamecocks come into this one as one of the hottest teams in the conference, winning the last 4 to move to 4-3 overall and 3-0 in CUSA play.
This is a pair of programs led by veteran coaches with exciting offenses, which should give us an entertaining encounter. So, let’s dive into my Jacksonville State vs. Liberty predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Oct. 30.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Jacksonville State had a memorable season in the program’s first year in the FBS in 2023. Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, the momentum didn’t come into this campaign leading to a slow start.
To open 2024, the Gamecocks lost their first three games to Coastal Carolina, Louisville and Eastern Michigan. The schedule has lightened up over the last four weeks, and head coach Rich Rodriguez’s team has dominated.
Jacksonville State scored a combined 203 points in the victories over Southern Miss, Kennesaw State, New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee. The plan for attack in those wins was spearheaded by the ground game, and I don’t see that changing here.
During this stretch, the Gamecocks have averaged over 350 rushing yards per game to go along with 23 touchdowns on the ground.
This rushing attack has been led by the dynamic duo of Tyler Huff and Tre Stewart. Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, Huff's status is in question coming into this game after an injury he picked up last week.
If he can't go, Jacksonville State has a veteran backup in Logan Smothers, but it would be a drop-off from how well Huff has played.
Liberty Flames
At some point, the long winning streaks had to come to an end for Liberty. However, I don’t believe anyone expected that to happen against Kennesaw State.
The Flames closed as 27-point favorites on the spread in that game and took a lot of late money. To make matters worse, it was the first victory for the Owls since they made the jump up to the FBS level.
If Chadwell is going to get the season back on track, he needs to get his offensive duo of Kaidon Salter and Quinton Cooley rolling again.
Salter had one of his better games in the defeat, rushing for a season-high 87 yards and throwing three touchdowns. However, Cooley struggled in the loss, but he has topped 100 rushing yards in four of his last six games.
He needs to establish the run game to help Liberty keep the ball away from Jacksonville State’s explosive offense.
Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Prediction
Ultimately, the key to this game is going to be who can have more success running the ball, which I believe points to a clear advantage for the home team.
Because I think the lines on the spread and total are about right, I’m electing to look at the player prop market.
With that said, my best bet is for Cooley, Liberty's lead back, to fly over his rushing yard total of 84.5 at FanDuel, which I would play up to 87.5. I also don’t hate a look at Cooley to score the first touchdown at +400 odds or better.
Coming into this game, the Flames offense ranks inside the top 25 in the country in Rush Rate. This is the same unit that's 44th in Rush EPA per Play and 40th in Rush Success Rate.
Meanwhile, this is the exact way teams want to attack the Jacksonville State defense. The Gamecocks sit outside the top 100 in Rush EPA per Play allowed and Rush Success Rate allowed.
Yes, the defense has played better in recent weeks, but I believe this is primarily down to the opposition. With that said, New Mexico State and Kennesaw State averaged 197.5 rushing yards against Jacksonville State.
If you go back to the tougher nonconference opposition, those three opponents averaged 226.3 rushing yards, with both Coastal Carolina and Louisville topping 200 yards on the ground.
We should get a motivated showing after the loss last week, and with only nine carries in that game, Cooley should be fresh to chew up yards against the Gamecocks.
Pick: Quinton Cooley Over 84.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 87.5)
| |
Kennesaw State vs. Western Kentucky Pick for Wednesday
By Brett Pund
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-2, 3-0 CUSA) and Kennesaw State Owls (1-6, 1-2) meet on Wednesday night for the final showdown of midweek Conference USA action. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Hilltoppers enter this matchup in a tie at the top of the league standings with Jacksonville State, with both programs owning 3-0 conference records.
Meanwhile, the Owls picked up their 1st win of the year with a 27-24 victory over Liberty last week. They will be looking to carry that momentum into this one.
As we saw a week ago, anyone can beat anyone in this league. However, Western Kentucky enters as a -24 favorite with an over/under of 49.
Let’s break down the action with my Kennesaw State vs. Western Kentucky predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Oct. 30.
Kennesaw State Owls
It has not been an easy transition to the FBS level for the Owls in Year 1. They lost their first six games and failed to cover the spread in five.
However, coach Brian Bohannon’s team has continued to play hard, and the hard work paid off last week with the big upset win over Liberty. It gave the Flames their first regular season loss in 17 contests and their first as a member of CUSA.
There were multiple key performers in the victory, starting with quarterback Davis Bryson. He finished with the third-highest passer grade in the country for Week 9 as the offense put up the eighth-best offensive grade nationally by PFF.
Meanwhile, the defense has been the main story in recent weeks. In the loss at Middle Tennessee, the Blue Raiders were held to just seven offensive points and under 300 total yards.
The Owls followed that up by shutting down Liberty’s strong rushing game. Only twice in the last two seasons have the Flames been held to 180 rushing yards or fewer, and those games came against Oregon and Kennesaw State.
It will need to be another full-team effort to get a win here.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Since opening with a 63-point loss at Alabama, the Hilltoppers have been a dominant team on the scoreboard and in the betting markets. WKU has won five of its last six and covered the spread in all of those games.
With a win here, the Tops can become bowl-eligible for the sixth time in six seasons under head coach Tyson Helton. It would mark the first time WKU has become bowl-eligible before November under Helton and the first time as a program since 2016.
Playing at home is one of the keys to a strong start. The Hilltoppers are 3-0 at home for the second straight year, and they can become 4-0 at Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium for the first time since their 2015 CUSA Championship squad.
To add more to this encounter, Flo Ride will perform a free pregame concert before kickoff. With this also being WKU’s annual "Black Out" game, there's plenty to be excited about on The Hill.
WKU, it's Going Down For Real!
Flo Rida to perform free pregame concert prior to @WKUFootball game on Wednesday, Oct. 30!
Details: https://t.co/XAdSK8OUi9#GoTopspic.twitter.com/fNYQKT57Ev
— WKU Sports (@WKUSports) September 21, 2024
Kennesaw State vs. Western Kentucky Prediction
This is a terrible spot for Kennesaw State, which is coming off a big upset victory with a road game against a top conference foe off a bye. I believe this is all priced into the spread to keep me away, but I do believe there's value in a player prop.
So, my best bet is for WKU quarterback Caden Veltkamp to throw three or more touchdowns at +130 odds at DraftKings. I like this down to +105.
The numbers by this Owls defense are pretty poor across the board. As we saw last week, the unit still struggles against the pass when it shuts down the run.
On the season, Kennesaw ranks outside the top 120 in both Pass EPA per Play and Pass Success Rate allowed. However, the Owls do limit Pass Explosiveness, which will keep me off Veltkamp’s yardage total.
We’ve also seen other quarterbacks in passing offenses have success against this defense. UTSA's Owen McCown, San Jose State's Emmett Brown and Liberty's Kaidon Salter all threw for at least three scores against Kennesaw State.
This plays right into WKU’s strengths on offense. The Hilltoppers rank 13th nationally in Pass Rate while also coming in at 43rd in Pass EPA.
As for Veltkamp, he has flourished since he took over the starting job following the injury to TJ Finley. He has topped this touchdown mark in three of his five starts, which includes every game against Conference USA opposition.
We have the whole club looking at him, and as Flo Rida would say, I'm not expecting Veltkamp to go low, low, low on passing scores.
Pick: Caden Veltkamp 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+130 · Play to +105)
