If college football’s Week 1 slate was all about kicking back and feasting on a five-day spread of games, Week 2 is all about wildly overreacting to what we saw.
Florida State is cooked. Michigan is garbage. USC is restoring the 2000s, and Notre Dame is bringing back the 1940s. Florida should probably fold the program, and let's just hand Nico Iamaleava the Heisman now.
So take your overreactions and put your money where your mouth is – time to place some bets for Week 2.
Let’s take a look at the schedule. The weekend is jam-packed, so let’s run down some things you need to know to get to the window. Here's my Week 2 college football betting primer.
Friday, Sept. 6
BYU vs. SMU
This game would've been a humdinger in the 1980’s, yeah? This turn-back-the-clock matchup kicks off the weekend.
SMU is favored by 11.5 in its first game in a Power Four vs. Power Four matchup as it looks to improve to 3-0 on the season.
BYU has struggled away from Provo in recent years, going 1-5 on the road last season.
Duke vs. Northwestern
Another ACC team – a traditional one – gets some run on Friday night in a game that could be an absolute slog.
The Wildcats are favored at “home” with a total sitting at 37.5, which is thanks to both offenses' miserable showing in Week 1.
Duke finished in the 30th percentile for EPA/play last week; Northwestern, 20th.
To make matters worse, this game will be windy, disrupting already struggling offenses.
I'm loath to recommend skipping a college football game, but unless you like horrific rock fight games, this might be a good opportunity to get some good sleep in order to have a clear mind when you study the board on Saturday morning.
Saturday, Sept. 7
Texas vs. Michigan
The marquee non-conference matchup of the season is a noon showdown from The Big House between two defending conference champions and reigning playoff teams.
Oh yeah, and Michigan has a national champion banner to hang, too.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has proven himself to be one of the game’s best big-game play callers, and he surely has a bespoke game plan ready to unleash.
Michigan’s offense was troublesome last week, and the market has responded. The game opened with Texas favored by 3.5, but now the Horns are giving 7.5.
Michigan’s defense is still tremendous, but Texas has one of the few offensive lines in the country that might be able to stare the Wolverines down.
This game should be a ton of fun, and promises to be a righteous collision of agile beef.
Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State
The home Cowboys are favored by a touchdown in a fun non-conference showdown.
Arkansas QB Taylen Green and Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon II are two of the most dynamic ballcarriers in the country. They each keyed offenses that had great opening stanzas in Week 1 and will look to carry that momentum against FBS opponents.
Collin Wilson loves the over 63 in this matchup, noting the dynamic rushing attacks and the generous pass defenses.
Conversely, Oklahoma State produced three pass breakups against 35 passing attempts from South Dakota State. Per PFF, the Cowboys and Razorbacks rank 109th and 117th in coverage grading against FCS competition.
Even more worrisome for both defenses is the missed tackles, as the Pokes and Razorbacks combined for 23 missed tackles and grades outside of the top 100, per PFF.
Baylor vs. Utah
It's worth noting that this clash of Big 12 teams is actually a non-conference game, as the two schools had this game scheduled and decided to keep it, outside of the framework of the conference schedule.
Baylor gets the dubious honor of being the first Big 12 team to make the trip to the intimidating Rice-Eccles Stadium, one of the best home field advantages in the sport and a must-include in your handicap.
Iowa vs. Iowa State
This gnarly little rivalry game takes center stage on CBS. The under has gone 17-2 in the last 19 matchups, although each year the lines continue to get sharper as both programs sink further and further into offensive decay.
But perhaps this one bucks the trend: Iowa might have a competent quarterback. It maybe even has one good wide receiver, and it might even be willing to pass the ball! Cats and dogs, etc.
Iowa State’s defensive depth chart is ravaged right now. If this game was ever going to touch the 40s again, this might be the year.
Temple vs. Navy
Navy is getting two touchdowns to a team that beat it last season.
According to Stuckey in his Situational Spots column, service academies are 40% ATS when favored by 14 points or more.
Buffalo vs. Missouri
Missouri, the official team of the CFB Weekly Primer, continues its march through a soft September schedule with a trip from the rebuilding Buffalo Bulls.
The Tigers are favored by 34.5 points, but the notable thing here is the total. 95% percent of bets tracked in the Action Network app have this one going over the total of 51.5.
That’s a lot of faith in the Mizzou offense, led by dynamite wide receiver Luther Burden III, who's all that and a bag of chips.
Eastern Kentucky vs. Western Kentucky
At first glance, this matchup of a Group of Five school and its in-state regional FCS rival isn’t that notable. But we might have some fireworks.
All summer the WKU athletic department marketed this as a White-Out game and planned for the team to wear all white uniforms accordingly.
But EKU, as visitors, have the right to wear white, forcing WKU to wear home reds and leading to a passive aggressive tweet.
Maybe WKU can put that spite to good use and cover the number.
Colorado vs. Nebraska
Another showcase game for Colorado is another chance for a seismic move for Travis Hunter’s Heisman odds. After going out and scoring three incredible receiving touchdowns in Week 1 — while also playing excellent defense — his odds for the sports’ top individual prize moved from +5000 to +1500 at BetMGM.
Nebraska has been itching for revenge for over a year, and the showdown between freshman Huskers QB Dylan Raiola and his veteran counterpart Shedeur Sanders is storybook.
NC State vs. Tennessee
Speaking of new quarterbacks, Tennessee’s Iamaleava looked incredible last week, although NC State presents a much stiffer test.
Wolfpack defensive coordinator Tony Gibson is a mastermind and will throw some pressures at Nico that he hasn’t even dreamed of.
But the market is backing the golden boy and his rocket arm, as the Volunteers are over a touchdown favorite.
Note: this game will be played at a neutral site in Charlotte, not Raleigh, so be careful before adjusting for home field advantage.
Western Michigan vs. Ohio State
The Group of Five Deep Dive gave out Western Michigan +24 in Wisconsin in Week 1, and it was never close, as the Broncos looked competent and covered with ease.
Can they do it again, this time getting 37.5 against Ohio State?
Sometimes it seems like Ryan Day’s Buckeyes are allergic to covering large spreads in buy games.
Mississippi State vs. Arizona State
The weekend ends with a fun little non-conference matchup. Both teams are projected to be pretty poor on defense, and might be underrated on offense.
Both head coaches have made names for themselves as dynamic play callers.
This one could get fast and pointsy in the desert.
