You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided last year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers. After a split in Week 2 — thanks to a thrilling, late Iowa cover — we sit at 4-2 on the season heading into this weekend.
I did consider suspending Collin for a week from this exercise after his Alabama pick last Saturday, but I'm in good spirits ahead of an epic college football weekend. In that case, we're both back with more chalk for Week 4.
This week, we're rolling with a pair of afternoon SEC home favorites, starting with a conference matchup at noon.
Stuckey: Texas A&M -8.5 vs. Auburn
You better believe Texas A&M has had this game circled since last season because I know I did from a betting perspective.
During its embarrassing 5-7 campaign, the low point came towards the end of the season, when Auburn handed A&M its seventh loss.
The Aggies limped into that game shorthanded and demoralized from a disappointing year and left even more dejected after suffering a 13-10 loss. They then watched as Cadillac Williams and the fans in Jordan Hare Stadium celebrated like they just won a national title. I'm sure that taste is still in their mouths.
They must be foaming at the mouth for a shot at revenge in their own house this time.
In that game, Auburn quarterback Robby Ashford finished 6-of-13 passing for a meager 60 yards and two interceptions. The Tigers won by simply running the ball down the Aggies' throat to the tune of 55 attempts for 270 yards, which far too many opponents did against the Aggies in 2022.
Well, Auburn still can't throw the ball, which is how Miami came out victorious against the Aggies.
Plus, Texas A&M has seemingly fixed its run defense based on the underlying metrics. The struggles in that department last season were truly mind-boggling when you consider all of the talent it had up front.
Therefore, I'm not really sure how Auburn will move the chains in this one.
Meanwhile, A&M also has a much more potent offense with a much more modern scheme under new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino.
Ultimately, Auburn is getting too much love for its 3-0 start against UMass, Samford and Cal.
The first two are fairly meaningless results against cupcakes. Against the one team with a pulse, Cal actually out-gained Auburn 273-230 in a game the Tigers needed a fourth-quarter touchdown drive to pull out a 14-10 victory. If not for a third-and-17 conversion on that drive, the perception on this Auburn squad would be much different.
I loved the Hugh Freeze hire, but it's going to take him time to get this thing fully turned around.
This looks like a prime spot to back the Aggies, who should be out for blood to avenge last year's loss.
For what it's worth, Jimbo Fisher is 14-6 ATS (70%) as a home favorite of more than a touchdown at Texas A&M.
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Wilson: Tennessee -21.5 vs. UTSA
After taking advantage of a soft schedule in the first two weeks, Tennessee will look to get back on track following a loss on the road against rival Florida last week.
All eyes have been on quarterback Joe Milton III, who brings enough arm strength to catch the attention of NFL scouts even as questions loom around his accuracy.
The sixth-year quarterback has six touchdowns to just a single interception, but some accuracy issues and wide receiver drops have limited the offense.
A date in Knoxville with a Group of Five team that struggles to defend the pass is just the medicine needed for this offense.
Despite a strength of schedule that sits outside the top 100, UTSA has struggled on defense in numerous categories, including a rank of 129th in coverage, per PFF. Defensive coordinator Jess Loepp has a unit that has seen a deep slide in creating Havoc, falling to near last nationally in creating pressures.
UTSA has allowed an average of four points on opponent drives that extend beyond the 40-yard line, so Tennessee should have no issues moving the ball and then finishing those drives with touchdowns.
On the offensive side, one of the best quarterbacks in the Group of Five may not play, as Frank Harris will be a game-time decision. Dealing with a toe injury that will limit his mobility, he likely wouldn't have the same effectiveness if he does suit up.
Backup quarterback Eddie Lee Marburger generated touchdown passes against the Army secondary in a loss, but the mobility package needed to run the Roadrunners' offense would be missing without Harris — and Tennessee certainly has a much more talented defense than Army.
Plus, the Roadrunners are dealing with other injuries on the offensive line and at receiver.
Look to back Tennessee in a bounce-back spot, where an inefficient secondary and shorthanded offense of UTSA awaits.
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