The Denver Broncos (3-3) and New Orleans Saints (2-4) will play tonight on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The game will be broadcast exclusively at Prime Video.
The Broncos are consensus 2.5-point favorites over the Saints (Broncos -2.5) with the over/under set at 37 points. Denver is -150 on the moneyline to win outright, while New Orleans is +125 to pull off the upset and win.
The Broncos' 3-game winning streak ended last week with a 23-16 loss to the Chargers. Denver was down 20-0 at halftime and didn't score until the fourth quarter. The Saints lost 51-27 to the Buccaneers last week for their fourth straight defeat. Spencer Rattler will start again for the injured Derek Carr after going 22-of-40 for 243 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions against Tampa Bay.
Let's get into my Broncos vs. Saints prediction and my NFL picks for Thursday Night Football.
Broncos vs. Saints Expert Picks
Spread
I project the spread for this game as Broncos -1. Despite New Orleans getting an extra 1.5 points, I'm not betting this market.
Moneyline
Likewise, I'm not betting on either team's moneyline.
Over/Under
The Saints offense could struggle mightily here due to injuries at quarterback, along the offensive line and with their top two wide receivers likely out. They’re up against a Broncos defense that should generate plenty of pressure on rookie Spencer Rattler, making it difficult for the Saints to put up points. With New Orleans likely struggling to score, Denver should be able to lean on a very run-heavy, conservative game plan that will keep the clock moving.
Neither offense is particularly explosive. All nine of the Broncos’ offensive touchdowns this season have come in the red zone, and the Saints rank second-worst in the league in plays that have gone for 20 or more yards, a number that could dip further without Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Even though 37.5 is a low total, this matchup sets up well for a low-scoring game that should stay under.
ESPN BET and FanDuel are still posting 37.5 as of late Thursday afternoon. I would also bet the under at 37, which is what most sportsbooks have posted.
Player Prop
My prop for the game is on Spencer Rattler Under 18.5 completions. You can read about the pick here, but it's easy to be down on the injury-plagued Saints offense tonight.
Broncos defensive end Zach Allen seems like the best bet to record a sack here (over 0.25 sacks, -112 at FanDuel). He has generated 31 pressures this season (third-most in the league), with 30 of those coming from the interior — that's nine more than the next closest pass rusher. Allen has been unlucky to have only 3.5 sacks this year and should be able to take advantage of a depleted Saints offensive line and a rookie QB who has been sacked on 28% of his pressures. I’m projecting his fair odds closer to -135 to record a sack, making the -115 at DraftKings worth a sprinkle.
Prediction
My pick: Under 37.5
Broncos vs. Saints Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 37 -110 / -110 | -150 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 37 -110 / -110 | +125 |
- Broncos vs. Saints Spread: Broncos -3 (+100)
- Broncos vs. Saints Over/Under: 37 points
- Broncos vs. Saints Moneyline: Broncos -150, Saints +125
- Broncos vs. Saints Best Bets: Under 37.5 (ESPN BET)
My Saints vs. Broncos prediction is on the under. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
- 58% of bets and 75% of the money are on the Broncos to cover the spread.
- 86% of bets and 69% of the money are on the over.
- 56% of bets and 66% of the money on the moneyline are on the Broncos.
Broncos vs. Saints Thursday Night Football Preview
Bo Nix had a rough start to his rookie season, posting a rate of -0.37 EPA per dropback over his first four games. However, he’s shown significant improvement over his last two, averaging a +0.06.
While this progress is encouraging, the Broncos are likely to lean heavily on their run game this week against a Saints defense that ranks eighth in DVOA against the pass but 26th against the run.
Adding to the challenge for Nix, starting center Luke Wattenberg suffered an ankle injury in Week 5 and is now on injured reserve. Wattenberg had allowed four pressures on 199 pass-blocking snaps this season while replacement Alex Forsyth has already allowed four on just 47 pass-blocking snaps. Nix’s efficiency has dropped significantly under pressure (+0.01 EPA per dropback against no pressure and -0.72 EPA against pressure), so Wattenberg’s absence could be a key factor in the Broncos’ offensive game plan.
The Saints’ run defense has struggled all season, allowing a league-high 2.6 yards before contact. This has led to big performances from opposing running backs, including Bucky Irving (14/81/1) and Sean Tucker (14/136/1) last week and Kareem Hunt (27/102/1) the week prior.
While both Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield threw for over 320 yards against New Orleans, that kind of game isn’t in Nix’s typical range of outcomes. I expect Sean Payton to exploit the Saints’ run defense and lean on Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime and even Nix’s legs.
With multiple injuries impacting the Saints offense, the Broncos should be able to execute an ultra-conservative, run-heavy game plan on Thursday Night Football.
The Saints offense is completely decimated heading into Thursday Night Football.
Derek Carr is expected to miss his second straight game, and the offensive line could be without center Lucas Patrick and guard Cesar Ruiz, while Erik McCoy and Shane Lemieux remain on injured reserve. Spencer Rattler will draw another start but will be without wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, leaving him with Mason Tipton, Bub Means and Cedrick Wilson as his primary targets. To make matters worse, Rattler will be facing one of the toughest defenses in the league in the Broncos.
While Denver may be without shutdown corner Patrick Surtain II (concussion), its defense still has plenty of talent to stifle this depleted Saints offense. The Broncos have generated the second-highest pressure rate in the league, and Rattler struggled mightily under pressure last week with -0.74 EPA per dropback. He also took a sack on 28% of his dropbacks, a stat that tends to stick and is often more within the quarterback's control. Given the Saints’ banged-up offensive line, we could see the Broncos rack up sacks and make this a particularly rough matchup for Rattler.
Shaheed be missed as a receiver and return man. His 31.0 yards per kickoff return rank eighth, and his 15.9 yards per punt return rank fifth. The Saints' average starting field position could take a hit with him sidelined, further compounding their offensive issues.
Pick: Under 37.5
How to Watch NFL Tonight: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Caesars Superdome |
| Date: | Thursday, Oct. 17 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Prime Video |
Saints vs. Broncos is scheduled for an 8:15 p.m. ET start time, live from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on Thursday night. The game is broadcast and streamed live by Prime Video.
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