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Our NFL Luck Rankings have proven to be a highly successful tool for betting NFL sides and totals.
In the three seasons since we introduced the Luck Rankings, games that met significant thresholds for sides or totals have gone 160-112-4 (58.8%) against closing lines, which are the hardest lines to beat!
This year, we introduced Version 3.0 of our Luck Rankings as a way to continue to improve the methodology, as well as to simplify the thresholds and give you even better luck metrics.
As part of that, we've introduced something called the "Luck Score." This single number will tell us whether a game has a significant luck factor.
If the Luck Score is 1.454 or higher, we'll consider that a luck-based side. In addition, associated with each Luck Score will be a letter grade and a Luck-Based Cover% (LBC%). Anything with a "D" and up is playable, with expected improved results as we go up the letter-grade scale (from D to A).
Unlucky teams meeting this 1.454 Luck Score and D-rated threshold or better are 162-113-7 against the closing spread since the start of 2018. That equates to a 58.9% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size of more than 270 games.
In Week 12, the unlucky teams went 1-1 ATS, moving luck-based sides to 19-14 (57.6%) ATS on the year. In these 33 games, the unlucky team has covered by an average of 2.7 points.
For Luck Totals, the criteria is as follows:
- Luck Overs: Luck Total of +1.5 or above
- Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1 or below
However, there are even stronger thresholds for Luck Totals, which we'll call "strong" Luck Overs or Unders:
- Strong Luck Overs: Luck Total of +2.0 or above
- Strong Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1.8 or below
Luck Totals went 1-0 last week, with the weak Luck Under going 1-0 to the under. Overall, that puts weak Luck Totals at 12-14 (46.2%) while strong Luck Totals stay 4-4 (50%) on the season.
All sides and strong total bets are 23-18 (56.1%), while all bets, including the weak totals, are 35-32 (52.2%).
Based on our Week 13 NFL Luck Rankings, there are two major luck-based sides and two luck totals.
NFL Luck Rankings – The Time is Now
Last week, I talked about how the Luck Rankings are performing almost exactly as predicted. This week, there are two things to address.
First, luck totals continue to crush, as expected, after the Week 8 to Week 9 inflection point. Weak luck unders, which were the rough spot early in the season, are 4-0 to the under since Week 9, lining up perfectly with the past inflection point on weak Luck Unders.
More interestingly, all luck totals, whether of the weak or strong variety, have gone 7-0 since Week 9.
Second, and more importantly, we have now also hit a major inflection point in luck-based sides.
As you can see from our preseason Luck Rankings update and primer, Week 13 marked a shortening of the Luck% threshold in our Version 2.0 methodology. With Version 3.0 we see the same inflection, not in Luck% threshold, but in the success of the results.
From Week 13 through the Super Bowl, but removing the last week of the regular season (as we always do because of its uniqueness), all luck-based sides graded D or better are 47-22-2 (68.1%) ATS. Even D-graded luck sides have performed well, going a crazy 13-3-1 ATS in that span (and clearly outperforming expectation). If we limit it to just the regular season, the unlucky teams in games that meet the Luck Score threshold are 40-18-2 (69%). If we limit it further to Weeks 13-16, that record becomes 36-14-1 (72%).
In other words, we're entering the heart of luck season.
With that said, let's get to the games.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 13 Games
Sides
| Team | Opp | Luck% Gap | Luck Score | LBC% | Grade | Rank Diff |
| WAS | DEN | 41.6% | 2.699 | 60.4% | A | 28 |
| NYG | NE | 39.5% | 2.565 | 60.2% | A | 28 |
Totals
| Team | Opp | Luck Total | Category |
| ARI | TB | -1.164 | Weak Under |
| BUF | PIT | -1.416 | Weak Under |
Commanders vs. Broncos
Grade: A
LBC%: 60.4%
In the No. 1 luck side of the week, the Washington Commanders host the Denver Broncos.
Not only is this the No. 1 side of the week, but of 3792 possible betting sides since 2018 (outside of Week 1 with no Luck Rankings, and the final week of the regular season), this ranks as No. 11 all-time. The fact that it's occurring in the sweet spot makes it even sweeter.
Luck sides with an A grade from Weeks 13-16 are 8-2, a whopping 80% hit rate. If we give anything above a 2.5 Luck Score an even higher A+ grade, then A+ grades from Weeks 13-16 are 5-0 ATS with an average cover margin of 8.1 points.
The Commanders have lost six in a row, but those losses came to teams with a combined record of 38-27-1 (58.3%). The -93 point margin in those six losses is quite unflattering, as the Expected Score margin of those six games is just 35 points, which comes out to less than six points per game against above-average competition.
That's notable because the Broncos are right in that "above average competition" window, sitting at 9-2, but 2.4 wins over expectation. Third-order Pythagorean win percentage (the most predictive), has them between a 55-60% win rate against an average NFL team, right in this "less than six points per game" window that the Commanders have lost by.
That's notable because the Commanders are 6.5-point 'dogs and are the home team.
We're getting a team on an 0-6 streak against a team on an 8-0 streak. That 8-0 team has six of those wins by a combined 16 points, including:
- 4-point win at a neutral site over the New York Jets
- 1-point win at home over the New York Giants
- 3-point win at home over the Las Vegas Raiders
And those six wins by a total of 16 points had a combined Expected Score of Denver 110.1, opponents 98.2 for an expected margin of 11.9 points.
The only reason I haven't bet this yet is our PRO Report is currently showing 75% of the bets and 84% of the money on Denver. Why bet +6.5 if you could possibly get +7? Remember, the Luck Rankings are always graded against the closing line, so even if this moves to +6, it's not a huge worry, as I have the Broncos as 4.5-point favorites.
Verdict: Wait, but if we start to see a move toward +6, then snap up any remaining +6.5s ASAP. UPDATE: I bet Commanders +6.5 (-115) at BetMGM with the market moving toward +6 midday on Wednesday.
Giants vs. Patriots
Grade: A
LBC%: 60.2%
While the Commanders' side ranks No. 11 all-time in Luck Score, the Giants side this week ranks No. 17 all-time, and falls in that "A+" threshold as well, meaning all the super strong trends that fit that game also fit this one.
With that said, it's a bit tougher to get there on this one as schedule-adjusted Expected Scores with 2.25 points of home-field advantage (which is right around the 5-year average) for the Patriots make this between 7 and 7.5 based off Jaxson Dart games, as he's expected to start.
That's pretty in line with the market, which is Giants +7.5 but juiced toward +7.
However, I think I can get there on the Giants because of one major factor, the Patriots' offensive line.
The whole left side of Drake Maye's offensive line is doubtful with No. 4 overall pick LT Will Campbell sustaining an MCL injury and third-round LG Jared Wilson suffering a high-ankle sprain.
Those two injuries put Maye under constant pressure against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals defense, with Maye under pressure on 43.6% of dropbacks despite facing the No. 29-ranked team in pressure rate over expectation.
On the Giants' side, it's a bit hard to separate the head coaching change with Mike Kafka taking over for the fired Brian Daboll from the QB change with Kafka naming Jameis Winston the starter over Russell Wilson in Dart's absence. But it is notable they lost by just a touchdown to two teams stronger than the Patriots in the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Those games averaged even closer, with the Giants losing by 4.5 points on average in Expected Score.
After making those injury adjustments and allowing for some potential improvement on the Giants' side with a coaching change, I can definitely get there at +7.5.
With the money coming in on the Giants and us getting the hook, I'm fine with taking the Giants now, but waiting is also an option to confirm those injury reports.
Verdict: Bet New York Giants +7.5, or wait for injury reports to clarify.
Bills vs. Steelers
Luck Total: -1.416
Category: Weak Under
Schedule-adjusted Expected Scores make this total 48, but with weather in the forecast, I can definitely get the 47.5 line.
Another important note is that Steelers' former first-round pick LT Broderick Jones has already been ruled out, and backup journeyman Calvin Anderson, who has played just 45 snaps over the past two seasons, will be tasked with protecting Aaron Rodgers' blind side, should he get the presumed starting nod after coming close to starting last week off an injury.
On the Bills' side, RT Spencer Brown is doubtful, and his replacement, Ryan van Denmark, has allowed five pressures on 48 pass blocking snaps this year, a 5% higher rate than Brown.
In a potentially cold, windy, rainy game with each team missing a starting tackle, I can get behind the under, especially getting the key number of 47.
Verdict: Bet under 47.5
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers
Luck Total: -1.164
Category: Weak Under
Schedule-adjusted Expected Scores with Jacoby Brissett as Arizona's QB make this 48.5, but that includes a lot of nice weather home games for Tampa Bay, as well as Arizona's home games with no weather issues. Winds are forecast right around 10 mph, which has a small impact on the total, so I'd make this 48 before getting to the matchup and injury report.
Obviously, the big deal here is QB Baker Mayfield's shoulder injury, and while Teddy Bridgewater is a solid backup, he's still a backup for a reason. Based off QB era-adjusted ELO, we're looking at around, conservatively, a 2-point dropoff here. However, it's hard to be exactly sure as Bridgewater has attempted just 94 passes since the start of the 2022 season. So, the dropoff could be larger.
Assuming a 3-point dropoff, which seems reasonable, I get 45. Then add in that Tampa Bay could be returning starting Haason Reddick and Jamel Dean, and I can get to that 44.5 number that the market is at, but that's it.
I think it's worth waiting out injury reports and weather.
Verdict: Wait.
