Islanders vs. Red Wings Odds
| Islanders Odds | -106 |
| Red Wings Odds | -113 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -101 / -119 |
Here's everything you need to know about the New York Islanders vs. Detroit Red Wings on Thursday, March 21 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Red Wings and Islanders are competing with each other for the East's second wild-card spot, but you wouldn't know either was a playoff contender based on their recent play. Let's discuss what has gone wrong recently, preview what might change in the upcoming contest and then offer an Islanders vs. Red Wings prediction.
New York Islanders
New York's season has been a rollercoaster, and the squad is presently in the midst of a drop, losing five straight while being outscored by a crushing 20-6 margin.
Bo Horvat has done his best to guide the Islanders through their rough patch, scoring three goals and four points over the past five contests, but he's one of just three Islanders to find the back of the net in that stretch. Meanwhile, Mathew Barzal, who leads the team in scoring with 69 points (20 goals) this season, has been a major part of the problem, registering just an assist in the same span. Defenseman Noah Dobson, who has 65 points (eight markers) this season, is also going through a rough stretch, recording an assist and a team-worst -10 rating during the losing streak.
The Islanders aren't a great offensive team to begin with, ranking 20th with just 2.97 goals per game on the season, but their recent rate of production is simply unacceptable. Even if their goaltenders were performing at an elite level, New York would lose most nights with that level of support. Of course, that's not to say the goaltending has been blameless as Ilya Sorokin has allowed 11 goals on 100 shots over his past three starts, while Semyon Varlamov stopped 26 of 30 shots in a loss to Ottawa on Saturday.
However, there is an argument to be made that some of those contests were closer than they appeared. While the Islanders were outscored 9-3 over their past two games against stiff competition (Rangers and Hurricanes), the xG Differential for those games was just 0.734 against the Islanders, which suggests New York played at least decently — not to the point where it deserved to win, but to suggest the Islanders haven't been showing up to play would be inaccurate. It's a small silver lining, but one worth remembering.
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit's slump has gone on for longer than the Islanders', but the Red Wings have more signs that they're emerging from it. Detroit suffered a seven-game winning streak from Feb. 29-March 14 before claiming two of its past three games. Granted, the Red Wings got those victories against non-playoff teams (Buffalo and Columbus), but at least it's something to help them rebuild their confidence.
They might be getting an even bigger psychological, not to mention practical, boost Thursday with the potential return of Dylan Larkin (lower body). The 27-year-old hasn't been in the lineup since March 2, but took part in Wednesday's practice, and coach Derek Lalonde suggested afterward that the Red Wings could get their captain back for this game. Larkin has 26 goals and 54 points in 55 contests, so his return would do a ton of good.
Detroit could also use a strong game between the pipes. The Red Wings have managed to score at least three goals in each of their past three games, so that aspect of their game has been returning. However, the Red Wings have surrendered 46 goals over their past 10 contests. Alex Lyon has allowed at least three goals in each of his past eight outings, so Detroit will send out James Reimer against the Islanders. However, Reimer has an 8-7-2 record, a 2.98 GAA and a .907 save percentage in 21 appearances, so he's not an ideal alternative, which makes goaltending a vulnerability that New York should attempt to exploit.
Islanders vs. Red Wings
Betting Pick & Prediction
These teams are fairly even, so the tipping point might be the contest's location. The Red Wings are dominant in Detroit, posting a 20-11-5 record. Meanwhile, the Islanders travel somewhat poorly (14-15-5). Is that enough of a reason to bet on the Red Wings? I'm hesitant given Detroit's relatively easy recent competition, combined with the Islanders' struggles perhaps being a bit overstated.
I'm instead recommending betting Over 6 goals. Detroit's offense has been strong lately and will be even better if Larkin returns. Meanwhile, luck hasn't been on the Islanders' side recently, but the pieces for an okay offense remain, and they'll be facing a middling goaltender in Reimer. So, both sides could pile on the offense tonight.
Pick: Over 6 Goals -122 BetRivers (Play to -135)
