Oilers vs. Stars Odds, Prediction
| Oilers Odds | +110 |
| Stars Odds | -130 |
| Over / Under | 6 +100 / -120 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Oilers vs. Stars odds for Game 5 on Friday, May 31 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
No lead is safe in the Western Conference Final between the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars. The Stars were on their way to staking themselves to a 3-1 series lead before blowing a 2-0 lead to Edmonton on Wednesday.
So, instead of heading back to the Lone Star State with the opportunity to punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final, Dallas is clamoring for a series lead before heading back to Wild Rose Country.
Of course, the Oilers are no better. The Pacific Division runners-up blew 2-0 leads in Games 1 and 3 – albeit hanging on for a win in the series opener – before letting Dallas escape with the win at Rogers Place on Monday.
But as imbalanced and chaotic as this series has been, there's been a decisive favorite analytically. And they aren't favored on Friday night.
That leaves bettors a few inroads to consider ahead of a pivotal Game 5.
Edmonton Oilers
The series might be tied, but it's Edmonton's to lose. Through four games, the Oilers have substantially outplayed the Stars in all but one of those contests, tilting the ice in their favor night after night.
Connor McDavid and company have dominated both ends of the ice, giving themselves a pronounced advantage heading into Friday's tilt.
As expected, Edmonton's offense is still creating chances every time they step onto the ice. The Oilers are averaging 10.8 high-danger chances per game, exceeding 12 opportunities in two of four.
Likewise, they've had no problem creating scoring chances, totaling 100 opportunities across the four outings for an average of 25.0.
More importantly, the Oilers have been successful in converting those opportunities. Ten of the Oilers' 12 goals have come at 5-on-5, recording three tallies in all but one of those contests.
But maintaining their elite offensive production hasn't come at the expense of defensive responsibility. Edmonton has out-chanced the Stars in scoring and high-danger chances in three of four, giving up an average of 24.3 and 9.3, respectively.
Arguably, the Oilers' best efforts came in the first two games of the series. Edmonton combined for a 57.2% expected goals-for rating as the visitors, giving the Stars more than they could handle at home.
We're expecting them to replicate that effort with another strong showing in Game 5.
Dallas Stars
Dallas bested the Vegas Golden Knights in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, outplaying the Knights in five of seven contests.
But it's been all downhill since then.
Cumulatively, the Stars have posted an underwhelming 48.4% expected goals-for rating since the start of the second round. Worse, they've only outplayed their opponents four times across the 10-game sample.
But despite their analytics shortcomings, the Stars have obviously pulled off a few upsets along the way, but in doing so, they have put themselves on an inevitable path to regression.
Heading into Friday's showdown against the Oilers, Dallas' metrics are overheating. The Stars are operating above expected levels, posting an actual goals-for rating of 52.5%, putting them over 4.0% clear of average.
As expected, that difference has inflated their PDO beyond sustainable measures. The Stars' combined shooting and save percentages are hovering at 1.020, implying that they're exhausting their puck luck the further they progress into the postseason.
Unless there's meaningful change to their on-ice product, the Stars are destined for collapse before they reach their ultimate goal.
Oilers vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's not reflected in the current gambling price, but the Oilers have been the superior squad through the first four games of the series.
Edmonton is creating more opportunities than the Western Conference regular-season winners, simultaneously bottling up the Stars in the defending zone.
One last factor worth considering – the Oilers have enjoyed this success without relying on power-play scoring. If Edmonton can get its special teams in order, there will be no stopping the Oilers en route to their first Stanley Cup Final since 2006.
Based on the current offerings, there's an edge in backing Edmonton in Game 5. I'd still back the visitors at any plus-number, though.
