Penguins vs. Flyers Odds
| Penguins Odds | -126 |
| Flyers Odds | +105 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +104o / -128u |
It's always an occasion when the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Philadelphia Flyers square off for another installment of the battle of Pennsylvania.
Just over a month ago, the Flyers prevailed in extra time in both halves of a home-and-home set against the Penguins. Here's why you should expect another tightly contested matchup when the two sides meet again at Wells Fargo Center on Monday. Let's get into our Penguins vs. Flyers preview and prediction.
Pittsburgh Penguins
With 42 points in 38 games, the Penguins are part of the chase pack that is keeping the playoff race interesting in the Eastern Conference. Of that group, Pittsburgh has the best goal differential at plus-12 and a winning road record of 9-7-3. The Penguins' expected goals share of 52.8% at 5-on-5 is seventh-best in the league, and Jake Guentzel and Sidney Crosby are having phenomenal seasons at both ends of the ice.
Pittsburgh has gained a little ground with a 6-3-1 record in its last 10 games, but is coming off a 3-1 home loss to Buffalo on Saturday. And while the power play went through a month-long stretch of futility earlier in the season, it has connected in each of the last three games.
Overall, Pittsburgh has been effective defensively. The penalty kill has been sound and both Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic have been solid in net.
The Penguins' schedule is quite light this week. They won't play again until they host Vancouver on Thursday. Jarry took Saturday's loss against the Sabres, so he should be back between the pipes against the Flyers.
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Philadelphia Flyers
Sitting four points above the Penguins in the Metropolitan Division standings, the Flyers are hanging onto a playoff spot. They snapped an 0-2-2 stretch with a 3-2 home win over the Calgary Flames on Saturday.
Philadelphia's 2.74 goals against per game is identical to Pittsburgh's, but the Flyers score a bit less — averaging 2.9 goals per game compared to 3.03 for the Penguins. Most of that can be attributed to Philadelphia's league-worst power-play rate of just 10.2%, but the power play did connect against the Flames for the first time in five games.
John Tortorella's Flyers also boast puck-possession numbers that are nearly on par with Pittsburgh's, with an expected goals share of 51.96%. All-Star Travis Konecny has been driving the offense with 21 goals, and the goaltending has been passable, with both Samuel Ersson and Carter Hart on the positive side of goals saved above expected.
Penguins vs. Flyers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Back in early December, long-time Flyer Sean Couturier was the difference-maker in both games of the home-and-home set. He scored the shootout winner in Philadelphia's 4-3 win in Pittsburgh on Dec. 2, then played hero in overtime two nights later.
With so little to choose between these two sides, it's risky to assume Philadelphia will prevail again, and the oddsmakers agree. Though they're sitting lower in the standings and will be on the road, the Penguins are favored on the opening moneyline at -120.
Monday's game should be another battle which could go beyond 60 minutes. This is a good spot to lean into a regulation-time tie, with a solid potential payout.
Pick: Regulation tie +290 (Play to +270)
