I have two WNBA picks tonight — one player prop and one side. There are two WNBA games on the board — Sparks vs. Sun and Liberty vs. Mercury, so let's get right into the picks and break down tonight's WNBA best bets.
Dearica Hamby has cleared this line in four of her past five games, but this is a spot where I expect it to be much tougher for her to rack up assists.
The Sun have the best defensive rating in the league AND play at the slowest pace. We’ve seen the Sparks tinker a ton with their lineup over the past month. I've noticed that Aari McDonald’s playing time has gone up in six straight games and that she played 31 minutes last game.
She has the highest assist percentage on the team, so more playing time for her will eat into everyone else’s assist rate, including Hamby. I'm projecting this closer to -165.
I was high on the Mercury heading into the season with the additions of Natasha Cloud, Rebecca Allen and Kahleah Copper. However, they were without Allen and Brittney Griner for the first several games.
With Allen and Griner back, they are finally at full health and are playing at a very high level. I still think they are a tad underrated given that they have faced the toughest schedule to date (according to my strength of schedule metric). This will also be their third straight home game and a game in which they'll likely be giving max effort.
The Liberty are the best team in the league and rank first in my power ratings. However, they have faced the second-easiest schedule and this will be their fifth road game over the past six games, so this could be a potential let down spot.
