Astros vs. Rangers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 7, 2024

Astros at Rangers

11:10 pm • ESPN

Houston Astros

0-2

3 - 1

Texas Rangers

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.Dunning			5.31	5-7
R.Blanco			2.80	13-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Astros 0-2	-1.5+142	o10.5-105	-108
Rangers 0-0	+1.5-170	u10.5-115	-112

Sunday 11:10 p.m.

April 07, 2024

Globe Life FieldArlington

R.Blanco u4.5 Ks+110

0.55u

Ballpark pal gives this -139 odds and the devig odds are -119 showing a ton of value

Under 10.5-114

$50.00

TEX -115

1.73u

Under 10.5-115

System play

Over 10.5-105

Y.Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases-110

0.45u

@charliedisturco

K.Tucker o1.5 Total Bases+115

0.5u

@charliedisturco

W.Langford o1.5 Total Bases+120

Elite speed and has been hitting the ball well in the early going. Top 25% in whiff rate, above-average barrels. A sell-high spot on Blanco who ranked in bottom 2% of all pitchers last season in barrel rate & has just a 34.7% GB rate. He also had reverse splits, struggling more vs. RHP (.275 avg, .495 slg) vs. LHP (.221, .419)

TEX -115

R.Blanco u15.5 Outs-115

1.15u

Good sell spot on Blanco after the no-hitter #tailing @SBK5065

TEX o4.5 Team Total-140

1.4u

HOU -110

$50.00

Y.Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases-110

The underlying number on Yordan continue to grade amazing. Had a .525 xwOBA (vs .342 actual) & a .365 xBA/.850 xSLG. The latter of which is top1% of hitters. Barrel rate still near 20% & draws great matchup against Dunning who has a career 20% K rate and has struggled with hard hits in past.

K.Tucker o1.5 Total Bases+115

Tucker & Alvarez two of the unluckiest hitters out of the gate this far with BA - xBA both .100 or higher And that’s saying something for Tucker who is hitting .306 but expected .406! His hard hit remains elite and has a .667 xSLG and the best barrel rate yet (small sample). Just 2 HRs and 2 2Bs despite that. Great matchup vs. dunning

Over 9.5-120

0.6u

Bet to 10 (-115)

Featured Insight
The Astros have scored first in 57% of their games since the 2022 season -- fourth highest in MLB. The Rangers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games since the 2022 season -- tied for ninth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Rangers won 56% of their games that were decided by one run or less last season -- tied for sixth best in MLB. Astros won just 44% of their games that were decided by one run or less last season -- tied for sixth worst in MLB.

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Astros vs. Rangers: Regression Reveals Value in Texas
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The Astros were 27-19 (.587) after a road win in 2023 -- tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.

Adolis Garcia has struck out in 28% of PA's since the 2022 season -- tied for sixth highest in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Josh Hader has a strikeout rate of 37% since the 2022 season -- tied for fourth highest among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

86% of non-fastball strikeouts for Jeremy Pena were located out of the zone last season -- highest in MLB-- 100th Percentile. 81% of Dane Dunning non-fastball strikeouts were located out of the zone last season -- second highest among qualified SPs-- 97th Percentile.

Ronel Blanco has allowed an OPS of just .069 (29 PA's) this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .706 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Rangers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Rangers are 33-47 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Rangers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 32 of Rangers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rangers	70-91	37-44	33-47	35-56	34-34
Astros	81-80	40-41	41-39	56-60	23-19

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rangers	74-79-8	32-47-2	42-32-6	40-47-4	34-30-4
Astros	65-91-5	37-41-3	28-50-2	45-66-5	18-24

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rangers	78-84	44-37	33-47	52-39	24-44
Astros	88-73	46-35	42-38	66-50	20-22

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 6th	HOU	W 7-2	+1.5 W	U 10	TEX -110
Apr 6th	HOU	W 10-2	+1.5 W	O 10	TEX +120
Apr 3rd	@TB	W 4-1	+1.5 W	U 7.5	TEX +105
Apr 2nd	@TB	L 2-5	+1.5 L	U 8.5	TB +130
Apr 1st	@TB	W 9-3	+1.5 W	O 8.5	TEX +110

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out

Corey Seager
IF
Seager is out with hip
Out
Tyler Mahle
P
Mahle is out with shoulder
Out
Evan Carter
OF
Carter is out with back
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RR.Blanco, P	90	6	4	0
RR.Montero, P	10	1	1	0
RR.Pressly, P	9	1	1	0
LJ.Hader, P	20	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	1-3	1	0	0
2Y.Alvarez, DH	1-3	1	1	3
3K.Tucker, RF	0-4	0	0	0
4A.Bregman, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
5Y.Diaz, C	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Singleton, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
6J.Abreu, 1B	0-1	0	0	0
7C.McCormick, LF	0-3	0	0	0
8J.Pena, SS	1-4	0	0	0
9J.Meyers, CF	1-2	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Dunning, P	97	6.2	7	3
RG.Anderson, P	6	0.1	1	0
LJ.Latz, P	16	1	1	0
RY.Rodriguez, P	21	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Semien, 2B	0-4	0	0
2C.Seager, SS	0-4	0	0
3W.Langford, DH	0-4	0	0
4A.Garcia, RF	1-3	1	0
5E.Carter, LF	0-2	0	0
5J.Foscue, PH	1-1	0	1
6J. Walsh, 1B	0-2	0	0
6E.Duran, PH	0-1	0	0
7J.Heim, C	0-3	0	0
8J.Smith, 3B	0-2	0	0
9T.Jankowski, CF	0-2	0	0