Braves vs. Mariners Odds & Betting Predictions - May 1, 2024

Braves at Mariners

7:40 pm • BSSO

Atlanta Braves

0-2

5 - 2

Seattle Mariners

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
E.Hancock			4.75	4-4
C.Sale			2.38	18-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 0-2	-1.5-110	o7-119	-191
Mariners 0-0	+1.5-110	u7-102	+160

Wednesday 7:40 p.m.

May 01, 2024

T-Mobile ParkSeattle

ATL -180 (F5)

C.Sale o17.5 Outs-120

1.2u

Sale has been really solid - 3.69 ERA / 3.12 xERA. Inducing weak contact (88th percentile hard hit%) and ground balls (76th percentile). He’s also garnering strikes at a 71% clip due to his high chase rate. The Mariners due see a lot of pitches, but they’ve also been miserable vs lefties - 83 wRC+ and .614 OPS. 6/L6 lefty starters have cleared their outs line vs SEA. And Sale is at 7 IP in each of his last three starts.

ATL -160 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -175

ATL -158

0.5u

Featured Insight
Braves RPs have a strikeout rate of 27% since the 2022 season -- second highest in MLB. Mariners have struck out 25% since the 2022 season -- second highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Mariners RPs have a strikeout rate of 28% over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB. Braves have struck out 28% over the last week -- second highest in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Wednesday MLB Bets
Sean Zerillo•
May 1, 2024 UTC

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The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .424.

The Mariners are 28-4 (.875) when they've had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.

The Mariners are 73-14 (.839) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .785.

The Braves are 17-54 (.239) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .103.

Julio Rodriguez has struck out in 26% of PA's since the 2022 season -- tied for 12th highest in MLB-- 11th Percentile. A.J. Minter has a strikeout rate of 33% since the 2022 season -- 11th highest among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

5 of Chris Sale's breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season -- tied for 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan -- 96th Percentile.

Chris Sale has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 83.9 MPH (80 batted balls) this season -- 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.9 -- 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (15/87) against Emerson Hancock over the last 14 days -- 4th lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 26% -- seventh Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mariners are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Mariners' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Mariners' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mariners	74-88	38-43	36-45	47-62	26-26
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mariners	76-76-10	31-45-5	45-31-5	50-55-4	25-21-6
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mariners	85-77	49-32	36-45	62-47	23-29
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 1st	ATL	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 7	SEA +105
Apr 30th	ATL	W 2-1	+1.5 W	U 7	SEA +135
Apr 28th	ARI	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 6.5	ARI -141
Apr 28th	ARI	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 7	SEA -155
Apr 27th	ARI	W 6-1	+1.5 W	U 7.5	SEA +110

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Sale, P	100	5	9	1
LD.Lee, P	24	1.2	2	1
LA.Minter, P	8	0.1	1	0
RJ.Jimenez, P	13	1	0	0
RR.Iglesias, P	17	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	2-5	2	1
2O.Albies, 2B	1-4	1	0
3A.Riley, 3B	2-4	1	2
4M.Olson, 1B	1-3	0	1
5M.Ozuna, DH	0-2	0	1
6A.Duvall, LF	0-4	0	0
7M.Harris, CF	0-4	0	0
8O.Arcia, SS	0-4	1	0
9C.Tromp, C	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RE.Hancock, P	77	3.2	4	1
RT.Thornton, P	10	1.1	0	0
RT.Miller, P	29	2	2	0
LT.Saucedo, P	5	1	0	0
RA.Voth, P	8	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Rodriguez, CF	3-5	1	0
2M.Haniger, RF	0-5	0	0
3J.Polanco, 2B	2-5	0	2
4C.Raleigh, DH	0-4	0	0
5T.France, 1B	2-4	0	0
6D.Moore, SS	1-4	0	0
7L.Urias, 3B	0-3	0	0
8S.Haggerty, LF	0-3	0	0
8J.Rojas, PH	0-1	0	0
8J.Rojas, LF	0-1	0	0
9S.Zavala, C	2-3	1	0
9L.Raley, PH	0-0	0	0