Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - April 16, 2024

Guardians at Red Sox

11:10 pm • NESN

Cleveland Guardians

4-6

10 - 7

Boston Red Sox

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
G.Whitlock			1.96	1-0
T.Bibee			3.47	12-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Guardians 4-6	-1.5+164	o8.5-101	+100
Red Sox 0-0	+1.5-196	u8.5-118	-121

Tuesday 11:10 p.m.

April 16, 2024

Fenway ParkBoston

T.Casas o0.5 HR+560

2.8u

@AnthonyDabbundo

CLE -105

0.95u

BOS -110

Intrigued by what Garrett Whitlock has done in his first three starts. Underlying data on him is pretty good, and it would make the Red Sox slight favorites for me on a neutral field. Giving them home field makes the -110 seem pretty light.

BOS -115

1.73u

Marathon Monday was an industry plot

Under 9-115

1.15u

Under 9-115

0.58u

Bet to 8.5 (-103)

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The Red Sox are just 19-25 (.432) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.

The Guardians are just 18-24 (.429) after a home win since the 2023 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.

The Guardians are 11-64 (.145) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .101.

The Red Sox are just 39-51 (.433) after a home loss since the 2022 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.

Andres Gimenez is batting .278 on breaking pitches from RHP since the 2022 season -- 10th best in MLB-- 90th Percentile. Kutter Crawford has thrown a breaking pitch 53% of the time since the 2022 season -- seventh highest among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP-- 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 7% (2/29) against Garrett Whitlock on sliders this season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 33% -- first Percentile.

Tanner Bibee has allowed a .636 SLG vs left-handed batters this season -- sixth worst among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP-- seventh Percentile. He allowed a SLG of just .270 vs left-handed batters last season -- second best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 99th Percentile.

Tanner Bibee has allowed a .909 SLG versus the top of the order this season -- worst among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP-- 0 Percentile. He allowed a SLG of just .318 versus the top of the order last season -- fourth best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Red Sox are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Red Sox' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Red Sox' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37
Guardians	83-78	42-38	41-40	48-50	34-27

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6
Guardians	67-83-11	38-38-4	29-45-7	45-46-7	21-36-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43
Guardians	92-69	50-30	42-39	63-35	28-33

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 15th	CLE	L 0-6	-1.5 L	U 9.5	CLE -161
Apr 14th	LAA	W 5-4	-1.5 L	U 10	BOS -133
Apr 13th	LAA	W 7-2	+1.5 W	U 10.5	BOS -105
Apr 12th	LAA	L 0-7	+1.5 L	U 9	LAA -115
Apr 11th	BAL	L 4-9	+1.5 L	O 8.5	BAL +110

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
David Hamilton
IF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Bibee, P	92	5	3	1
RT.Beede, P	20	0.1	1	3
RC.Smith, P	17	0.2	1	2
RE.Morgan, P	29	2	2	0
RH.Gaddis, P	10	1	1	0
RE.Clase, P	16	1	0	0
RS.Barlow, P	14	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	3-5	2	0	0
2A.Gimenez, 2B	2-4	2	0	1
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-4	1	0	2
4J.Naylor, 1B	1-5	0	0	0
4B.Rocchio, PR	0-0	1	0	0
4B.Rocchio, SS	0-0	1	0	0
5B.Naylor, C	1-5	0	0	0
6R.Laureano, RF	0-2	1	0	0
6E.Florial, PH	1-3	0	0	2
6E.Florial, RF	1-3	0	0	2
7W.Brennan, DH	1-5	1	0	1
8G.Arias, SS	2-6	0	0	2
8G.Arias, 1B	2-6	0	0	2
9T.Freeman, CF	2-5	2	1	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Whitlock, P	54	4	1	2
LJ.Rodriguez, P	31	2	3	2
LB.Bernardino, P	19	1	2	0
RC.Martin, P	13	1	0	0
RK.Jansen, P	14	1	0	1
RG.Weissert, P	21	1	0	0
RJ.Winckowski, P	26	1	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Duran, LF	1-5	1	0	0
2R.Devers, 3B	1-2	0	0	2
2B.Dalbec, 3B	0-2	0	0	0
3M.Yoshida, DH	0-6	0	0	0
4T.Casas, 1B	2-4	1	1	1
5W.Abreu, RF	0-4	2	0	0
6E.Valdez, 2B	2-4	1	1	1
6P.Reyes, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
7C.Wong, C	2-4	1	1	3
8D.Hamilton, SS	2-5	0	0	0
9C.Rafaela, CF	1-5	1	0	0