Mariners vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - September 25, 2024

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice George Kirby’s strong recent form and past success against the Houston Astros gives Seattle the edge in this matchup, despite Houston having already clinched the AL West title. Over his last three starts, Kirby has been highly effective with a 3.50 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, displaying excellent command and the ability to limit baserunners. Against Houston specifically, Kirby has dominated, allowing only one run in two starts earlier this season and pitching six scoreless innings in a win on 9/26/23. His ability to strike out batters consistently (173 strikeouts over 185 innings) helps keep Houston’s lineup in check. In contrast, Yusei Kikuchi has shown vulnerability, particularly with the long ball, allowing 25 home runs this season, and Seattle’s hitters have the power to exploit this weakness. While Kikuchi has been solid recently, with a 2-0 record and a 3.79 ERA over his last three starts, he has still been prone to giving up hits and the occasional home run. Seattle also holds a clear bullpen advantage. While Houston’s bullpen has struggled recently, posting a 6.41 ERA over the last three games, Seattle’s relievers have been much more reliable, with a 3.74 ERA in that span. Mariners' key relievers like Andrés Muñoz and Casey Snider are in excellent form, boasting ERAs of 2.12 and 1.35, respectively. In tight games, Seattle’s bullpen, with a season-long 3.17 ERA and a lower WHIP, gives them the advantage in closing out games. Houston's bullpen, on the other hand, has seen key relievers such as Josh Hader and Hunter Neris struggle recently, with ERAs over 10.00 in their last three appearances, creating vulnerabilities that Seattle’s offense could exploit late in the game. Seattle’s offense has shown they can perform against Houston’s pitching. In their 6-1 victory on 9/23/24, the Mariners posted an OPS of .864 and batted .342 as a team. Over the last 10 games, Seattle has maintained a team batting average of .281 compared to Houston’s .252. With Kikuchi's susceptibility to allowing home runs and his occasional control issues (recent uptick in walks), Seattle could take advantage of these opportunities to score. Their lineup is also effective against left-handed pitchers like Kikuchi, further boosting their chances of generating runs.

Laying some juice here but I think Yusei gets bodied today. Let’s see.

Avery

Bet to +115 for now (will update after lineups). Likely an afternoon hangover game for Houston after clinching AL West tonight