Nationals vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - May 27, 2024

Nationals at Braves

8:10 pm • MASN2

Washington Nationals

0-0

8 - 4

Atlanta Braves

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Morton			4.19	8-10
M.Parker			4.29	7-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Nationals 0-0	+1.5-110	o9-110	+175
Braves 0-2	-1.5-110	u9-110	-210

Monday 8:10 p.m.

May 27, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

Under 9-122

ATL -175 (F5)

0.44u

M.Parker o15.5 Outs+104

1.04u

Parker is over this line in 4/L6. Pitching efficiently with only 3.73 pitches per PA. Braves have been mortal over the last 30 days vs lefties (105 wRC+ and .716 OPS - both close to league avg), and now without Acuna. Parker’s high GB rate should come into play too - .707 OPS for the Braves as a team vs GB pitchers is essentially league average and the Braves worse split.

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-120

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-115

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Featured Insight
Braves hitters have a hard-hit rate of 44% this season -- best in MLB. Opponents have a hard-hit rate of 44% against the Nationals this season -- worst in MLB.

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MLB NRFI Picks And Model Predictions for Monday
Billy Ward•
May 27, 2024 UTC

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The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .428.

Eddie Rosario is batting just .164 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- tied for third worst in MLB-- third Percentile. Opponents are hitting just .182 (74-for-407) on Charlie Morton breaking pitches since last season -- tied for 14th best among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP-- 89th Percentile.

Matt Olson has an OPS of .877 since the 2022 season -- 10th best in MLB-- 91st Percentile. Andres Machado has allowed an OPS of .779 (468 PAs) since the 2022 season -- 10th worst among qualified RPs-- fifth Percentile.

Charlie Morton has walked 38 of 342 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- second Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Nationals	89-73	44-37	45-36	14-12	75-59

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Nationals	76-78-8	37-39-5	39-39-3	9-16-1	65-62-7

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Nationals	71-91	38-43	33-48	15-11	56-78

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 26th	@PIT	W 8-1	-1.5 W	O 8	ATL -238
May 25th	@PIT	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 8.5	PIT -154
May 24th	@PIT	L 5-11	-1.5 L	O 9	PIT -180
May 23rd	@CHC	W 3-0	-1.5 W	U 9	ATL +101
May 22nd	@CHC	W 9-2	-1.5 W	O 8.5	ATL -134

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Alex Call
OF
Call is out with foot
Out
Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
Cade Cavalli
P
Cavalli is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Parker, P	100	6.1	6	3
RD.Law, P	20	0.2	0	1
RH.Harvey, P	12	1	1	0
RK.Finnegan, P	15	1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Abrams, SS	2-4	1	1	2
2L.Thomas, RF	2-5	1	0	0
3L.Garcia, 2B	0-5	0	0	0
4E.Rosario, LF	1-4	2	0	1
5K.Ruiz, C	2-4	1	0	0
6J.Winker, DH	2-4	2	0	1
7N.Senzel, 3B	2-4	1	0	2
8J.Gallo, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
9J.Young, CF	3-4	0	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Morton, P	103	5.2	7	8
RJ.Chavez, P	20	1.1	1	0
RJ.Herget, P	25	2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1O.Albies, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
2A.Riley, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	1	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
5S.Murphy, C	1-4	0	0	1
6A.Duvall, RF	1-4	1	1	2
7M.Harris, CF	1-3	1	0	0
8O.Arcia, SS	2-4	0	0	1
9J.Kelenic, LF	0-3	0	0	0