Padres vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - September 16, 2025

POTD: The Mets are finally doing something they should have done a long time ago. They’ll be piggybacking Clay Holmes and Sean Manaea, and I think this is a brilliant move. Both have excellent stuff but tend to struggle the second time through the order. Holmes will serve as the opener to Manaea, allowing him to go 100% for 3-4 innings. Holmes is a former reliever who ended last season with an elite 126 Stuff+. He can’t replicate that full force in a starting role because he simply runs out of gas. Now the Mets are using him exactly how they should. Manaea will follow, and I’m ready to buy low on him. He’s a major positive regression candidate with a 5.76 ERA but a 4.30 xERA and 3.26 xFIP. I think this piggyback system will work well. I like Michael King a lot, but this will only be his second game back from injury. In his first game, he allowed 2 runs while striking out just one batter. This is a big red flag. King is a career 27.3% strikeout pitcher, so only one strikeout is concerning. To make matters worse, that outing came against a Reds team that strikes out at the 9th highest rate in baseball (23%). The Reds offense also ranks just 25th in wRC+, while the Mets sit 4th in MLB. This is a much tougher matchup, and I think we see King struggle. Not to mention, he is already a slight regression candidate with a 2.87 ERA but a 3.63 xERA and 3.95 xFIP. Yes, the Padres bullpen is elite, but I think the Mets grab the lead early and never give it back. Their bullpen is fully rested, so we should see Rogers, Garrett, and Diaz ready to shut the door. I also have several very profitable systems pointing to the Mets in this spot. They’ve let us down recently, but I like them to win tonight.

@cowhitchurch https://myaction.app/F6GEecjhIWb

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Bet to -115