Phillies vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - October 9, 2023

Phillies at Braves

10:07 pm • TBS

Philadelphia Phillies

3-1

4 - 5

Atlanta Braves

1-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Phillies 3-1	+1.5-160	o8-113	+130
Braves 1-3	-1.5+130	u8-106	-158

Monday 10:07 p.m.

October 09, 2023

Truist ParkAtlanta

PHI +140

0.98u

C.Pache u0.5 Total Bases-105

0.95u

@AnthonyDabbundo

C.Pache u0.5 Total Bases-105

0.1u

Good look by @AnthonyDabbundo. Marsh platoon and likely 2 PA

Over 8-108

0.93u

Baseball goats and Rolo say it’s a go

PHI +140

@AnthonyDabbundo

C.Pache u0.5 Hits-105

0.95u

@AnthonyDabbundo

Over 7.5-128

1.02u

Alternate Line

R.Acuna Jr. o0.5 HR+400

0.3u

PHI +120 (F5)

1.2u

R.Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases-114

1.14u

ATL -148

Z.Wheeler u1.5 BB+100

ATL -1.5+132

0.76u

Z.Wheeler o15.5 Outs-113

It’s obviously a low line for Wheeler because it’s the playoffs and the Braves, but he’s proven to be a phenomenal playoff pitcher (over in 6/7 career playoff starts). Great numbers against the Braves, who are facing some negativity for the first time this season. Phillies up 1-0, so the leash will be a bit longer for Wheeler (not regular season long, but longer than of the series was tied). And we can always count on him to pump the zone - 65.5% strike percentage is in the top third of baseball, and the Braves swing at the third highest rate. Favorable pitching conditions in the cooler weather too.

PHI +1.5-160

0.47u

Free play for Monday

Z.Wheeler o15.5 Outs+107

1.07u

PHI +130

It’s Red October for those who don’t know

A.Bohm o1.5 Total Bases+110

Daycare boy bounces back in ATL

Z.Wheeler o14.5 Outs-161

0.31u

PHI +126 (F5)

0.63u

Bet to +125

PHI +140

0.5u

Bet to +135

Featured Insight
The Phillies have scored in at least three different innings in 54% of their games since last season -- fourth-highest in MLB. Braves have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 50% of their games since last season -- tied for ninth-highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Phillies Right Handed Hitters have struck out 24% against LHP over the last week -- seventh-highest in MLB. Braves have a strikeout rate of 25% vs right-handed batters over the last week -- third-highest in MLB.

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The Braves are 33-24 (.579) after a loss this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.

36% of Alec Bohm strikeouts are looking since last season -- fourth highest in MLB-- 97th Percentile. 34% of Brad Hand strikeouts are looking since last season -- tied for eighth highest among qualified RPs-- 95th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.4 MPH (206 batted balls) this season -- tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 89.2 -- 98th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	0-2	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Phillies	1-3	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 7th	PHI	L 0-3	-	-	-
Oct 1st	WSH	L 9-10	-1.5 L	O 10.5	WSH -225
Sep 30th	WSH	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 9	ATL -375
Sep 29th	WSH	L 6-10	-1.5 L	O 10	WSH -264
Sep 28th	CHC	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 9.5	ATL -142

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RZ.Wheeler, P	92	6.1	10	2
LJ.Alvarado, P	16	1	2	0
RJ.Hoffman, P	11	0.1	0	2
LG.Soto, P	7	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, DH	1-4	0	0	0
2T.Turner, SS	1-5	1	0	0
3A.Bohm, 3B	1-3	0	0	1
4B.Harper, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
5J.Realmuto, C	2-5	1	1	2
6N.Castellanos, RF	2-4	1	0	0
7B.Stott, 2B	1-3	0	0	1
8C.Pache, LF	0-2	0	0	0
8B.Marsh, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8B.Marsh, LF	0-1	0	0	0
9J.Rojas, CF	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Fried, P	95	4	3	3
RK.Yates, P	25	1	2	0
RJ.Jimenez, P	22	1	1	0
RP.Johnson, P	14	1	1	0
LA.Minter, P	15	1	0	0
RR.Iglesias, P	8	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	0-2	2	0	0
2O.Albies, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
3A.Riley, 3B	1-4	1	1	2
4M.Olson, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
5M.Ozuna, DH	0-3	0	0	0
6T.d'Arnaud, C	1-3	1	1	2
7E.Rosario, LF	0-2	0	0	0
7K.Pillar, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7K.Pillar, LF	0-1	0	0	0
8O.Arcia, SS	0-3	0	0	0
9M.Harris, CF	0-3	0	0	0