Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds & Betting Predictions - May 1, 2025

Red Sox at Blue Jays

11:07 pm • NESN

Boston Red Sox

29-33

2 - 4

Toronto Blue Jays

31-28

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Berrios			3.86	2-2
T.Houck			8.04	0-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 29-33	-1.5	-1.5+146	o8.5-117	-113
Blue Jays 31-28	u8.5	+1.5-176	u8.5-102	-105

Thursday 11:07 p.m.

May 01, 2025

Rogers CentreToronto

J.Berrios u5.5 Ks-140

0.5u

Have a lean on the under here. Projections have him around 5.1-5.3 but if you look at the underlying metrics, Berrios is generating his lowest swinging strike rate in his career (7.7%) and getting the highest called strike percentage of his career (19.6%). He’s also struggling with walks this season (15 in 34 innings) which I hope continues to elevate his pitch count. This is a good strikeout matchup for him but based on the underlying metrics, I’m willing to take a shot on the under here.

BOS -116

1.16u

J.Berrios o1.5 BB-125

V.Guerrero o1.5 Total Bases+110

0.83u

J.Berrios o1.5 BB-135

1.35u

J.Duran o1.5 Total Bases-115

0.86u

TOR +107

2.14u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-111

Under 8.5-103

Over 4.5 (F5)-105

1.05u

BOS -105

Red Sox have won 6 of last 8 in Toronto – confident at Rogers Centre. Houck owns this matchup – 1 ER in 6.2 IP vs TOR this April, 0 ER in 5 IP here last Sept. Jays hitting just .202 last 10 games, only 3.47 runs/gm on season. Red Sox score 5.12 – big edge. Toronto bats ice cold vs RHP – just .228 avg, no depth beyond Vlad & Bo. Boston bullpen sharper: 3.07 ERA vs Jays' 3.14, and just 2.87 last 3 games. Red Sox hitting .250 on season vs Jays .234. Toronto’s lineup out of sync – .228 vs righties, lacks depth behind Vladdy/ Bichette. Jays' pen shakier lately – 4.64 ERA last 3 games.

BOS -110 (F5)

R.Devers o0.5 HR+375

0.5u

BOS -105

TOR -106

0.5u

Bet to -115

Red Sox vs Blue Jays: +210 SGP for Thursday
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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Blue Jays are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Blue Jays are 15-12 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Blue Jays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 20 of Blue Jays' 33 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	36-24	21-12	15-12	14-11	22-12
Red Sox	30-33	14-18	16-15	19-23	11-9

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Blue Jays	30-29-1	20-12-1	10-17	16-9	13-20-1
Red Sox	28-34-1	13-18-1	15-16	18-23-1	10-10

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	31-29	20-13	11-16	15-10	16-18
Red Sox	29-34	16-16	13-18	21-21	8-12

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 30th	BOS	W 7-6	+1.5 W	O 9.5	TOR -110
Apr 29th	BOS	L 2-10	+1.5 L	O 7.5	BOS +120
Apr 27th	@NYY	L 1-5	+1.5 L	U 8.5	NYY +136
Apr 27th	@NYY	L 2-11	+1.5 L	O 8.5	NYY +170
Apr 25th	@NYY	W 4-2	+1.5 W	U 9	TOR +126

Spencer Turnbull
RP
Turnbull is out with back
Out
Alek Manoah
SP
Manoah is out with elbow
Out

Tanner Houck
SP
Houck is out with arm
Out
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Masataka Yoshida
LF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Houck, P		86	7	6	1
RJ.Slaten, P		29	1	0	3

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	1-4	0	0
2R.Devers, DH	1-3	0	0
3A.Bregman, 3B	1-4	0	2
4W.Abreu, RF	0-4	0	0
5T.Story, SS	1-4	0	0
6T.Casas, 1B	1-4	0	0
7R.Refsnyder, LF	1-4	1	0
8D.Hamilton, 2B	1-3	1	0
9C.Narvaez, C	0-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Berrios, P	88	6.2	8	2
LM.Fluharty, P	6	1.1	0	0
RY.Garcia, P	12	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Bichette, SS	1-4	1	0	0
2V.Guerrero, 1B	1-4	1	1	3
3A.Santander, DH	1-4	0	0	0
4D.Varsho, CF	1-3	1	1	1
5A.Kirk, C	1-4	0	0	0
6A.Barger, 3B	0-2	0	0	0
6A.Gimenez, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
7A.Roden, LF	0-3	0	0	0
8E.Clement, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8E.Clement, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
9N.Lukes, RF	2-3	1	0	0