Red Sox vs. Cubs Odds & Betting Predictions - July 15, 2023

Red Sox at Cubs

12:05 am • MARQ

Boston Red Sox

0-0

8 - 3

Chicago Cubs

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
K.Hendricks			3.75	6-8
B.Bello			4.24	12-11

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 0-0	-1.5+120	o9.5+100	-135
Cubs 0-0	+1.5-145	u9.5-120	+115

Saturday 12:05 a.m.

July 15, 2023

Wrigley FieldChicago

Under 9+105

B.Bello o4.5 Ks-130

Projecting closer to -200

CHC +102

Available at FanDuel. Brayan Bello is super fun, and I like him broadly. But I think this number undersells how well Kyle Hendricks has pitched since returning. His SIERA is underwhelming at 4.85, but that doesn't do a great job of encapsulating his hard-contact suppression. He has let up just a 32.2% hard-hit rate, which is why his xERA is 3.81. I think Hendricks' contact suppression is a sustainable skill, which is why I'm willing to buy into his being better than his traditional peripherals imply. The Cubs' bullpen is also solid should Hendricks have to leave early due to a weather delay. My model puts the Cubs at 54.6% to win, up from 49.5% implied.

B.Bello o4.5 Ks-140

0.71u

Under 9.5-120

0.6u

Under 9.5-120

0.6u

Bet to -130 or 9 (-110)

BOS -120

0.5u

Second half better not be as bad as first half

BOS -120

1.04u

FanDuel 2:04 Thursday.

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The Red Sox are 17-12 (.586) after a win as underdogs this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

The Red Sox are 38-24 (.613) after a home win since last season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .539.

Christopher Morel has a groundball rate of 57% over the last 30 days -- tied for 13th highest in MLB-- 93rd Percentile. Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Brayan Bello over the last 30 days -- fifth highest among qualified SPs-- 95th Percentile.

Nico Hoerner is batting just .213 against RHP over the last 30 days -- 10th worst in MLB-- 11th Percentile. Right handed batters are hitting just .161 (9-for-56) against Brayan Bello over the last 30 days -- seventh best among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Cubs are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Cubs are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cubs are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Cubs' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Cubs' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	79-83	36-45	43-38	33-50	45-32
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cubs	75-81-6	34-46-1	41-35-5	40-39-4	34-41-2
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	83-79	44-37	39-42	45-38	37-40
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 9th	@NYY	W 7-4	+1.5 W	O 8.5	CHC +125
Jul 8th	@NYY	L 3-6	+1.5 L	O 8.5	NYY +167
Jul 7th	@NYY	W 3-0	+1.5 W	U 8	CHC +134
Jul 6th	@MIL	L 5-6	-1.5 L	O 7.5	MIL -106
Jul 6th	@MIL	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 8	CHC -140

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
David Hamilton
IF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out

Ben Brown
P
Brown is out with neck
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Bello, P	93	6	5	3
RJ.Winckowski, P	8	1	1	0
LB.Bernardino, P	13	1	2	0
RT.Scott, P	23	0.2	1	0
RK.Jansen, P	3	0.1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Duran, LF	2-5	1	0	0
2M.Yoshida, DH	2-5	1	0	0
3J.Turner, 2B	1-4	1	1	3
3J.Turner, 1B	1-4	1	1	3
4R.Devers, 3B	3-5	2	2	2
5A.Verdugo, RF	1-4	0	0	0
6A.Duvall, CF	1-4	1	1	1
7T.Casas, 1B	2-4	1	1	1
7C. Arroyo, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
8C.Wong, C	0-4	0	0	0
9Y. Chang, SS	1-4	1	1	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Hendricks, P	84	4.2	5	5
LA. Kay, P	26	1.1	2	0
RM.Leiter, P	17	1	1	2
RJ.Assad, P	38	2	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Tauchman, DH	1-5	0	0	1
2N.Hoerner, SS	1-4	0	0	0
3I.Happ, LF	0-4	0	0	0
4S.Suzuki, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5C.Bellinger, CF	2-4	2	2	2
6C.Morel, 2B	3-4	0	0	0
7J. Young, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
8M.Mastrobuoni, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
9T.Barnhart, C	2-3	1	0	0