Red Sox vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - June 21, 2023

Red Sox at Twins

11:40 pm • BSN

Boston Red Sox

0-0

4 - 5

Minnesota Twins

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Gray			2.79	8-8
G.Whitlock			5.15	5-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 0-0	+1.5-187	o8.5-110	+100
Twins 0-0	-1.5+165	u8.5-110	-120

Wednesday 11:40 p.m.

June 21, 2023

Target FieldMinneapolis

S.Gray u17.5 Outs-125

MGM. Gray is under in 9/14 starts. Has pitched well at home (1.96 ERA), but still under in 4/8 home starts. Poor history vs Sox better hitters, and only 5 IP earlier this season in Fenway. Red Sox will play 5-6 lefties, Gray’s worse split, and see a lot of pitches (3.94 per PA). It also doesn’t take much for him to get pulled - less than 85 pitches in 4/L6 starts. BOS has been hitting well - top 9 offense vs righties over the L2 weeks, incl a .348 OBP. They should generate enough traffic in the base paths to get Gray chased.

A.Kirilloff o0.5 HR+678

0.1u

Should be +675, found at 365

A.Kirilloff o1.5 Total Bases+135

0.5u

BOS +112

Available at FanDuel. I've got this game as a strict toss-up with the Red Sox at 50.3% to win versus 47.2% implied. A big part of it is that Sonny Gray has seemed off recently. He has thrown fewer breaking balls his past 7 starts, leaning more on his four-seamer and sinker. His results are fine with a 3.50 ERA, but his SIERA is 4.53. The worst outing of the bunch came last week when he walked four Tigers batters in four innings and got yanked early. On the other side, Garrett Whitlock has pitched well since his return from the IL, both in terms of his results and peripherals. I'm fine taking the Red Sox here if I can get plus money.

MIN -130

MIN -125

MIN -124

0.5u

Bet to -128

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The Twins are just 3-8 (.273) when tied entering the 7th inning this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Alex Verdugo has struck out in just 12% of PA's this season -- 10th lowest in MLB-- 94th Percentile. Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of just 16% vs left-handed batters this season -- fourth lowest among qualified SPs-- seventh Percentile.

Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .311 (89 Total Bases / 286 ABs) this season -- 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .397 -- 98th Percentile.

Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .270 (44 Total Bases / 163 ABs) against right-handed batters this season -- 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .395 -- 98th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 43 of Twins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 20th	BOS	L 4-10	-1.5 L	O 8.5	BOS -126
Jun 19th	BOS	L 3-9	-1.5 L	O 7.5	BOS -140
Jun 18th	DET	L 4-6	-1.5 L	O 7.5	DET -190
Jun 17th	DET	W 2-0	-1.5 W	U 9	MIN -190
Jun 17th	DET	L 1-7	-1.5 L	U 8	DET -255

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
David Hamilton
IF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out

Jose Miranda
IF
Jose Miranda (back) has been scratched Thursday.
Out
Trevor Larnach
OF
Larnach is out with hamstring
Out
Joe Ryan
P
Ryan is out with triceps
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Whitlock, P	88	7	6	4
RC.Martin, P	16	1	2	0
RK.Jansen, P	9	1	1	0
RK.Ort, P	5	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	0-5	0	0	0
1J.Duran, LF	0-5	0	0	0
1J.Duran, CF	0-5	0	0	0
2A.Verdugo, RF	2-5	1	0	0
3J.Turner, DH	2-4	2	1	2
4R.Devers, 3B	1-5	0	0	1
5M.Yoshida, LF	1-3	0	0	0
5D.Hamilton, PR	0-0	1	0	0
5D.Hamilton, SS	0-0	1	0	0
5A.Duvall, PH	0-0	0	0	0
5P.Reyes, PR	0-0	0	0	0
5P.Reyes, SS	0-0	0	0	0
6T.Casas, 1B	2-5	0	0	1
7C. Arroyo, 2B	2-4	0	0	0
8R.McGuire, C	0-1	0	0	0
8C.Wong, PH	0-2	0	0	0
8C.Wong, C	0-2	0	0	0
9K.Hernandez, SS	0-3	0	0	0
9K.Hernandez, CF	0-3	0	0	0
9R.Refsnyder, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9R.Refsnyder, LF	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Gray, P	92	5	5	3
RB.Stewart, P	15	1	2	0
RG.Jax, P	8	1	0	0
RJ.Duran, P	32	2	2	1
LJ. Moran, P	17	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1E.Julien, 2B	2-3	1	0	0
1K.Farmer, 2B	1-2	0	0	1
2A.Kirilloff, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
3C.Correa, SS	0-4	0	0	1
4B.Buxton, DH	1-4	1	0	0
5M.Kepler, RF	2-4	1	1	2
6R.Lewis, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
7J.Gallo, LF	0-2	0	0	0
7W.Castro, LF	0-2	1	0	0
8C.Vazquez, C	1-3	0	0	1
9M.Taylor, CF	0-3	0	0	0