Red Sox vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - June 21, 2023

MGM. Gray is under in 9/14 starts. Has pitched well at home (1.96 ERA), but still under in 4/8 home starts. Poor history vs Sox better hitters, and only 5 IP earlier this season in Fenway. Red Sox will play 5-6 lefties, Gray’s worse split, and see a lot of pitches (3.94 per PA). It also doesn’t take much for him to get pulled - less than 85 pitches in 4/L6 starts. BOS has been hitting well - top 9 offense vs righties over the L2 weeks, incl a .348 OBP. They should generate enough traffic in the base paths to get Gray chased.

BetMGM

Available at FanDuel. I've got this game as a strict toss-up with the Red Sox at 50.3% to win versus 47.2% implied. A big part of it is that Sonny Gray has seemed off recently. He has thrown fewer breaking balls his past 7 starts, leaning more on his four-seamer and sinker. His results are fine with a 3.50 ERA, but his SIERA is 4.53. The worst outing of the bunch came last week when he walked four Tigers batters in four innings and got yanked early. On the other side, Garrett Whitlock has pitched well since his return from the IL, both in terms of his results and peripherals. I'm fine taking the Red Sox here if I can get plus money.

Bet to -128