Rockies vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - August 25, 2024

wind out in certain ballparks Overall: 898-657-81,58% (ROI:12%) Season:37-36-3,51% (ROI:-2%)

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Austin Gomber is inconsistent and can be vulnerable to hard contact; that has been the word on the southpaw starter for the Rockies this season. Gomber has a 4.64 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, which is not too shabby, except that those numbers are bloated by the road, where he has a 4.80 ERA. These numbers should further suggest that, by and large this season, he's been a bit lucky, and there is very much a real threat of regression versus this Yankees lineup, flush with power. A few warning signs are his 40.5% hard-hit rate and an expected slugging of .488. Given that he’s surrendered 20 home runs in 132 innings, it’s clear that when hitters make contact, it often results in extra-base hits or home runs. The Yankees are particularly well-suited to exploit Gomber's weaknesses. Against southpaws this season, they've batted .254 with a .439 slugging percentage, getting it done with both the ability to hit for average and power. Key to this is Aaron Judge, who has been a one-man wrecking crew, pacing the team with his 49 home runs and owning a remarkable 1.189 OPS. The added impact of Judge to the lineup certainly enhances the Yankees' ability to score runs, more so in Yankee Stadium, where the dimensions in right field are perfect for a basher like him. As well, the Yankees feature other effective left-handed hitters beyond this trio, which makes the task for Gomber even more difficult. His expected regression, coupled with the Yankees' free-swinging success against similarly styled southpaws, should project out a game that is a recipe for several potential, big-run innings for the host. For the Yankees, starter Marcus Stroman poses a newer but nevertheless worrying profile. He's been fine on the overall this season, working to a 3.82 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, except for poor recent play. Stroman allowed five runs on six hits in the start and lasted just four innings, as his form has stuttered to post a 5.27 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in his last three starts, of which two were of pretty significant length. His strikeout rate of 16.8% is below the league average, thus he doesn't miss many bats, which is a worry vs. even a modest lineup like the Rockies'. Besides, Stroman's xERA 4.87 and xBA .261 suggest his real performance may, in fact, start to mirror those poorer expected numbers, particularly so he keeps struggling. While the Rockies' attack has clearly not been one of the better ones this season, it remains well capable of scoring a number of runs when facing a right-handed pitcher. Against righties, they are belting .240 with an OBP of .307 and averaging 4.21 runs per contest this campaign. Even with struggling overall, the Rockies have some dangermen in their lineup with hitters such as Brendan Rodgers, Brenton Doyle, of whom the latter provides the power, and the former is their leading hitter in average. That lower strikeout rate of Stroman's leaves the now-ball-batting Baton Rockies in position to plate very well could be a motley of runs, judging by the way he's pitching of late. That's particularly important with all of his extra-base hits, with otherwise rather hitter-friendly dimensions of Yankee Stadium that create the likelihood of raising numerous shots into home runs. Looking to the bullpens, the scenario continues to favor a high-scoring game. Colorado's bullpen has done wonderfully terrible this season, with a team ERA of 5.53 and a WHIP of 1.58. Such statistics scream at how dismal the collective performance of the bullpen has been in allowing a load of base runners and compelling trouble in efficiently shutting down innings, all from reaching base. Over the last stretch of threes, said ERA would be 5.66, which is laying words to the effect that this poor performance continues to go on. The Yankees' bullpen has been a touch better but still had some hiccups lately, giving up a 2.81 ERA in the last three. These numbers, though pretty good, could have mistakes that prove quite expensive in—more than likely—a very tight outweigh, with both Gomber and Stroman going with runners on base throughout. The total, in general, could swell very easily. Yankee Stadium has one of the more hitter-friendly parks within Major League Baseball, spearheaded with the short porch in right field, inviting in any ball hit in the vicinity of 314 feet from the home plate. This fact is most brought into relevance when considering that both starting pitchers have shown the propensity to give up home runs. It's a Yankees lineup that is power-heavy, able to take full advantage of it, and it's even the dimensions of Yankee Stadium that may even allow the Rockies to find themselves, despite all their overall struggles with some favorable weather conditions. And when considering that it has the advanced metrics and expected stats for both pitchers, it simply makes the over that much stronger. Gomber's 40.5% hard-hit rate, with an expected slugging of .488, is probable. This will yield much dangerous contact that probably turns into runs, more so in Yankee Stadium. Stroman's is a bit better: his hard-hit rate is 38.7%, with a .437 expected slugging. It creates a pitcher-susceptible one to service extra-base hits and maybe even homers. Add this to the Yankees' power, and a somewhat spotty Colorado ability to take advantage of mistakes, and clearly the ingredients for a high-scoring game are here.

Small to +195