Hawks vs. Celtics Odds & Betting Predictions - January 29, 2026

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Proj closer to -130

Sent this out last night, but would play this to +6. Not only is Atlanta playing some good basketball right now, but they are still very much in the hunt for the Playoffs. They’re currently in a dogfight with the Magic and Bulls for a play in spot, with the Hornets quickly chasing their tail. Fortunately for Atlanta, this is as good as they’ve played all season. Acquiring Corey Kispert and CJ McCollum from the Wizards didn’t seem like much at first, but both are very capable scorers. Trae Young was an offensive machine but a complete defensive liability. Kispert and McCollum are far more balanced players while still providing that scoring spark. This is an interesting spot for both teams, and I simply can’t get to this number despite the Celtics being the superior team and at home. Let me break down my process. I have the Celtics rated 4.2 and the Hawks rated 0.2. Adding 1.5 points for home court advantage gives us a base of Boston -5.5. From there, we adjust for injuries and situational factors. Porzingis and Risacher remain out for Atlanta, which only equates to about one point since they’ve been out for a while. Boston will be without their starting center Queta, which is a 0.5 point downgrade. We also have to factor in Boston playing their fourth game in six nights, along with this being a revenge spot for Atlanta after losing the prior meeting this season. All things considered, my number comes out to Boston -4.4. Our model agrees, projecting a 119.04-116.06 Celtics win for a fair spread of Boston -2.98. Interestingly enough, the Hawks have actually been better on the road this season, going 14-12 away compared to 9-13 at home. They also won both games in Boston last year against an even better Celtics team. Atlanta is 15-11 ATS on the road, while Boston is just 10-11 ATS at home. Despite the worse record, the Hawks have been the more consistent team. Boston has shown some extremely high highs, but also some low lows. When Atlanta has the rest advantage, they’re 4-2 ATS, while Boston is just 4-7 ATS at a rest disadvantage. This is one of the worst marks in the league. I simply think we’re getting too many points here. Give me the undervalued Hawks.

#RLM

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