Thunder vs. Spurs Odds & Betting Predictions - May 29, 2026

Tailing @PropBomb

OKC won the rebounding battle 48-41 and the 2nd-chance points battle 26-15 in Game 5. That eleven-point gap on 2nd-chance points is essentially the entire game and the biggest problem SAS has to solve facing elimination at home. Something Mitch Johnson will focus on. Six of Hartenstein's 15 boards came in Kornet's eight minutes on the floor, where SAS's lineup has posted a catastrophic net rating all series. That's not Hartenstein hunting glass on his own, that's a lineup matchup. Mitch told the room Tuesday his team had advantages they didn't take, and that rotation calls can supersede the typical pattern when stakes demand it. Translation: Mixing up coverages to keep Wemby down low, shortening the non-Wemby stints, and SAS sends multiple bodies at Hartenstein to limit putback. Mitch also said Wemby has to take more than 15 shots and score more than 20 points. I noticed he barely had any paint presence, which will need to be ratcheted up, and Hartenstein will need to contest. More aggressive Wemby means more interior involvement on both ends, and Hartenstein's offensive rebounding feast evaporates. Current line is bumped from earlier today and sits exactly at his playoff average, which assumes Mitch does nothing different in an elimination game after publicly telegraphing that he might. Real risk is Wemby getting compressed to the perimeter again and Hartenstein owning the second-chance battle anyway, but Tuesday's presser didn't sound like a coach committed to staying the course. #PlayerProps

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