Virginia vs. Missouri Odds & Betting Predictions - December 28, 2025

Virginia has to be completely demoralized after blowing a perfect opportunity to make the College Football Playoff. They had a layup game against a “bad” Duke team and completely blew it. I don’t know how they get off the mat here and compete with Missouri. This Missouri defense is legit and will make you pay if you play lackadaisical. Missouri’s defense ranks 13th in the nation with the 9th best run defense. Their front seven is a top three unit in the country and has been incredible all season. Missouri was in almost every game they played because of that defense. The Virginia offense is solid, but they could potentially be without their RB1 and WR1 in this spot. That would be a major blow to the Cavaliers and would put a ton of pressure on Chandler Morris’s shoulders. Morris has consistently shown that when he’s asked to take over a game, he struggles, often pressing the issue and forcing bad throws. On top of that, Virginia struggling to score against Duke’s horrific defense was a major red flag. The Missouri defense is night and day better than what the Blue Devils brought to the table. Let’s not forget this Virginia team was one of the luckiest teams in the country this season. They finished 31st in our college football luck rankings and, despite winning 10 games, only had eight games with an over 50% PGWE. Missouri was the opposite, finishing with 9.2 deserved wins compared to their eight actual wins. The strength of the UVA defense is the secondary, but that’s not how Missouri wants to beat you. The Tigers run the ball on 60% of their downs and will likely increase that number with backup QB Matt Zollers starting. This rushing attack, led by Ahmad Hardy, is elite and ranks as the 8th best in the country. The Missouri offensive line is a top unit and has been phenomenal all season. Missouri plays a physical brand of football, and I think that will be a shock to a Virginia team that’s likely still not over that demoralizing loss to Duke. This feels like a game they don’t get up for. Our model has Missouri winning 35-21 for a fair spread of 12.73. While I don’t think either team scores that much, the margin of victory feels right. Take Missouri to cover.

Welcome to the Thomas Jefferson Bowl, he designed both campuses. Sticking with my fade strategy off a conference title loss, one that would have sent UVA to the playoff. Five key starters may opt out for the Cavs. Drink claims there will be limited opt outs for the Tigers. Mizzou needs some new receivers to show up for Zollers, who bounced back from that awful start against Texas A&M where he looked like a freshman in way over his head. To that start agaisnt MIss State where he managed the game, threw a pair of TDs, and Kirby Moore protected him with the run game. Moore is off to Wazzu which means Drink will call the plays here. He’s been a play caller/OC before, not worried there with Ahmad Hardy to feed. Can this be as simple as Hardy going for 200?

@_Collin1 @Breese https://myaction.app/iyfsD4eVkZb