Saturday's Week 12 college football slate rolls on, as we turn our attention to the afternoon slate.
Our college football staff came through with eight ([) picks for the post-noon kickoff window, including picks for Utah vs. Arizona, NC State vs. Virginia Tech, Georgia vs. Tennessee and more.
Read on for all eight of our best bets for Saturday afternoon's college football games — and be sure to check out our top picks for Saturday's noon and evening kickoffs as well.
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Saturday Afternoon College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday afternoon's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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  | 3:30 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Utah vs. Arizona
Arizona ML -110
By Brett Pund
The key to any success that Utah has had this season without Cam Rising has come against teams that can’t stop the run or put up points on the Utes defense.
Arizona does not fit into either of those categories, which is why I like the Wildcats to stay hot with a win here.
On the season, coach Jedd Fisch’s defensive unit ranks in the top 25 in the FBS in Line Yards and 45th in Finishing Drives. Meanwhile, Utah sits outside the top 90 in both categories on offense.
When the Wildcats have the ball, they are a top offense with Noah Fifita as the starting quarterback. Arizona comes into this contest ranked in the top 15 in both Pass and Rush Success.
Yes, the Utes do have strong defensive metrics, but you do have to wonder if the injuries and grueling scheduling stretch are starting to catch up with them. They have faced USC, Oregon and Washington over the last four weeks.
This was also a team under Kyle Whittingham that came into the season with College Football Playoff and conference title goals. However, they now will have to settle for an average bowl game after playing in the Rose Bowl for the last two years.
I just feel these teams are going in opposite directions. So, give me the short home favorite to pick up a victory.
Pick: Arizona ML -110 (Play to -125)
Over 45.5
By Cody Goggin
The Utah defense has been one of the better units in the country this season, but it hasn't fared quite as well against top-level offenses.
Oregon, Washington and USC all showed that you can have success against this Utes defense by putting up well above average Success Rate figures and scoring 35, 35 and 32 points, respectively.
This Arizona offense has taken a leap this year, putting itself in a similar tier as the best offenses in the conference.
The Wildcats rank fifth in the country in Offensive Success Rate and 34th in Finishing Drives. They're fourth in Rushing Success Rate and 32nd in Rushing PPA but spend most of their time passing the ball.
Throwing at the 28th highest rate in the country, Arizona has put up the 11th-best Success Rate and 26th-best PPA in the country.
Its advantage in this aspect of the game has been heavily pronounced since freshman Noah Fifita took over as the primary signal-caller for this team. Fifita is averaging 0.18 EPA per dropback and completing 73% of his passes on the year.
Utah’s defensive metrics are eye-popping, but as mentioned earlier, it benefited from beating up on some poor opponents. When facing the top tier of Pac-12 offenses, particularly over the last handful of weeks, the Utes have not been as strong.
The opposite can be said for the Utah offense, which has really come into its own lately. On the year, the Utes are just 91st in Success Rate and 118th in Finishing Drives, but this doesn't tell the full story.
Outside of its stinker against a great Oregon defense, Utah has put up at least 28 points in every game since the start of October.
The defenses it's faced in this stretch haven’t been world-beaters by any stretch of the imagination, but neither is Arizona’s defense. The Wildcats are 76th in Defensive Success Rate this season, including 95th against the run, which Utah spends much of its time doing.
Using season-long numbers, this total makes sense. But I believe both of these offenses have the potential to put at least 24 points on the board this weekend.
The Utah defense hasn’t fared as well this season against good offenses, and I believe Fifita has helped transform this Wildcat offense into one of the best in the conference.
Pick: Over 45.5 (Play to 47.5)
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Louisiana Tech vs. Jacksonville State
Obviously, James Madison has the biggest gripe and is garnering the most attention right now, but Jacksonville State would also have a good shot at the conference title game if it was eligible in its first season in the FBS.
Rich Rodriguez has the Gamecocks at 7-3 overall and 5-1 in conference play this season. Their only losses have come to Coastal Carolina, Liberty and South Carolina.
They aren’t just winning; they're crushing teams. Their seven wins have come by an average of 17 points per game.
Jacksonville State knows what its identity is, and it does it very well. The Gamecocks are sixth in the country in rushing, averaging 218 rushing yards per game.
They play at an extremely fast pace, allowing them to have the second-most rushing attempts per game. In fact, only Air Force averages more runs per game.
Four players are averaging at least 45 rushing yards per game for the Gamecocks. Malik Jackson is the lead back, but Ron Wiggins and Anwar Lewis have been effective as well, and quarterback Zion Webb is dangerous with his legs.
The Gamecocks should be able to run wild against a Louisiana Tech team that can't stop the run at all. They rank 104th in Success Rate against the run and 110th at preventing rushing explosiveness.
Opponents are averaging 206 yards on the ground per game with more than five yards per attempt against the Bulldogs. In the last two games, they've allowed eight rushing scores and 450 yards on the ground.
On the other side of the ball, Hank Bachemeier really struggles with consistency and has been a walking turnover throughout his career. Louisiana Tech ranks 101st at preventing Havoc and can easily be forced into mistakes.
Jacksonville State’s defense has been terrific all season, sitting ninth in the country in Success Rate and 29th at creating Havoc. The Gamecocks are excellent against the run and will be able to force Bachmeier into mistakes.
Expect Jacksonville State to quite literally run away with this one.
Pick: Jacksonville State -8.5 (Play to -10)
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NC State vs. Virginia Tech
NC State +3
There's no hotter team in the ACC right now than NC State, which just ripped off its third straight win after beating Wake Forest, 26-6.
The reason NC State is on this streak is because of its defense, which has allowed only 31 points over its last three games.
What makes this defense so good is its secondary. The Wolfpack sit top-20 in both Passing Success Rate and EPA/Pass Allowed, and they haven't allowed a quarterback to average over 5.5 yards per attempt in their last three games.
Another reason this defense is so good is because it sticks to the fundamentals. Only Michigan has a better PFF tackling grade than NC State, which has translated to it ranking 15th in EPA/Play Allowed.
The Pack's front seven has also been getting a tremendous push up front, ranking top-25 in Defensive Line Yards, Stuff Rate, and PFF run defense grade.
The moral of the story is — it's hard to move the ball on the Wolfpack's defense, especially for a below-average offense like Virginia Tech.
Kyron Drones has struggled to throw the ball this season, averaging only 7.1 yards per attempt with six big-time throws. He also has a 39.8% Positive EPA Play percentage on his pass attempts, which ranks 110th among qualified quarterbacks at the FBS level. That will make it difficult to throw against a top-20 secondary.
However, Virginia Tech has a rush-heavy offense that runs it on almost 57% of offensive plays. The problem is, it's not very successful in doing so, ranking 97th in EPA/Rush and sitting outside the top 80 in both Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed. So, NC State should dominate this game in the trenches.
The problem for Virginia Tech is if it falls behind early. Drones has proven to be a below-average passer, and if he's forced to throw the ball more than 30 times against NC State's secondary, it's going to be a long night for the Hokies.
The biggest advantage NC State has in this game comes in the category of Finishing Drives. The Wolfpack offense ranks 46th in that area, while Virginia Tech comes in at 124th defensively.
Pick: NC State +3 (Play to +1)
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NC State ML +130
MJ Morris decided to sit out the Wake Forest game to preserve his redshirt, which opened the door for Brennan Armstrong’s triumphant return.
After being benched and replaced by Morris, leading the Wolfpack to a 26-6 victory over Wake Forest had to feel incredible for the Virginia transfer. Accounting for over 200 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions probably did wonders for his confidence.
His 91.5 PFF grade was his highest of the season and much more in tune with what we saw at Virginia. The big question is, was this a fluke, or is this how Armstrong is going to finish the season?
My money is that after a four-game reset, he's dialed in for the rest of the season.
The biggest mismatch in this game comes inside the opponent's territory. Virginia Tech struggles to score touchdowns instead of field goals, ranking 124th in Points per Opportunity on offense, while NC State ranks 45th in Points per Opportunity Allowed.
In my opinion, elevated quarterback play from Armstrong and NC State holding Virginia Tech to field goals will be the difference here. Our model has NC State as a -0.5 favorite, and I'm happy to take plus-money to back the Pack outright.
Pick: NC State ML +130 (Play to +115)
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Georgia vs. Tennessee
By Alex Hinton
As the two-time defending national champion, Georgia was the preseason No. 1 team, and deservedly so.
However, it didn't exactly look like a national champion during its first five games. That played a factor in the Bulldogs dropping to No. 2 in the initial CFP rankings.
Yet, over Georgia’s past five games, its average margin of victory is 24.4 points per game. That includes top-20 victories over Kentucky, Missouri and Ole Miss.
Now, Tennessee went to Missouri last week and got hammered. I'm not applying the transitive property here, but I'm fading Joe Milton against this Georgia defense.
Milton may have the strongest arm in the country, but he's inconsistent with his accuracy. That's an issue for a Tennessee offense that wants to play as fast as possible because incompletions slow its tempo.
Additionally, Tennessee averaged just 14.3 points per game in its losses to Florida, Alabama and Missouri.
Tennessee’s defense has been stout against the run this season, but it was shredded for 255 yards on the ground last week.
Georgia has a diverse ground game led by Dajuan Edwards and is getting stronger with Kendall Milton getting healthier by the week. Milton ran for 127 yards and two touchdowns last week in the victory over Ole Miss.
Additionally, Georgia’s passing attack has been firing on all cylinders with Carson Beck spreading the ball around to his loaded group of skill weapons. By the way, he got back Brock Bowers — the nation’s best tight end — last week.
I like Georgia to score at least 28 points this week and likely in the 30s. If Tennessee’s offense struggles again and scores 14-17 points, Georgia wins this game by 11 or more.
If you want to avoid the hook, -9.5 is -125 at FanDuel. However, I expect the Bulldogs to roll, so I'm not worried about the hook in this spot.
Pick: Georgia -10 (Play to -13)
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UNLV vs. Air Force
Oh, how quickly a season can change in college football. After starting off 8-0 and being ranked in the AP Top 25, Air Force has dropped two straight to Army and Hawaii.
Now, the Falcons will play their first home game in over a month as they host UNLV. With a win in this contest, Air Force will clinch a berth in the Mountain West Championship game, while winning out will guarantee home-field advantage.
I'm comfortable looking past some of the issues that Air Force has had in the last two weeks in large part because I perceive them to be explainable.
The outright loss to Army, even as a double-digit favorite, had different stakes than a run-of-the-mill regular-season game, and that was followed up by a brutal trip to the Island in which Air Force was plagued by turnovers and injuries.
This week, UNLV will get a unique test on the road. Air Force's triple option is notoriously difficult to prepare for, and this will be the first time that UNLV head coach Barry Odom has faced a service academy as a head coach or a defensive coordinator.
Undoubtedly, Air Force will feature a heavy rushing attack, but the largest venality in the Rebels' armor is their passing defense. I expect Air Force to feature a slightly larger passing scheme than usual.
UNLV will be facing an excellent Air Force defense that ranks in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense (7th), rushing defense (T-7th), passing defense (5th) and total defense (3rd).
The Falcons defense should be well positioned to counteract the Rebels' uptempo Go-Go offense that implements characteristics of their own vaunted triple optionality. In particular, I expect the Air Force rushing defense to stymie the ground game of UNLV.
I liken backing the home team in this matchup as it looks to bounce back after a brutal two-week stretch. The Air Force defense will be the key to covering in this contest, but I like the triple option offense to prove to be a difficult endeavor for the visiting Rebels.
Lay the chalk at -3 or better.
Pick: Air Force -3 or Better
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New Mexico State vs. Auburn
By John Feltman
I’m sorry Calabrese, but you can’t get mad at me for this one. This is a slam-dunk under play all the way, especially with quarterback Diego Pavia expected to be held out for New Mexico State.
I tip my cap to the Aggies, as they’ve been a great story out of CUSA, but the hype train has gotten way out of control.
This is a team that lost outright at home to UMass in Week 1 as 7.5-point favorites. Now it's going up against an SEC opponent, which will cause a huge step up in the talent department.
For the Tigers, they should be able to run all over this NMSU defense and establish a lot of methodical drives. The Aggies also have the fifth-slowest offense in the country.
There's also a huge advantage for this Tigers defense in this matchup, especially since Pavia will be most likely held out. They should completely dominated in the trench, and I don’t see how the Aggies offense scores.
I’m a bit pessimistic that the Tigers will break multiple explosive runs, but I'm extremely confident in their defense. Even if they score 40 points, this total could still stay under.
Auburn typically doesn’t come out sleepy the week before the Iron Bowl, but this heavy rush offense should take its foot off the gas late in the second half.
Pick: Under 48.5 (Play to 47)
