Following a four-game Week 0 slate, Week 1 gives us our first real, meaningful shot at earning some cash on college football player props.
Read on for our six favorites for Saturday, Aug. 31.
College Football Player Props for Week 1
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 12 p.m. | |
| 12 p.m. | |
| 12 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 7 p.m. | |
| 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Player Props
Diego Pavia Anytime TD (+190)
After an abysmal offensive performance last year, Vanderbilt gave its offense a complete reboot. They fired the offensive coordinator and every position coach and brought in Tim Beck from New Mexico State as the new offensive coordinator.
In addition to Beck, the migration from New Mexico State included former head coach Jerry Kill and quarterback Diego Pavia, who will almost certainly be the starting quarterback. Last season, Pavia was the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year, and Vanderbilt will look to rely heavily on his evasiveness.
Last year at New Mexico State, Pavia led the Aggies to a 10-win season and finished with 2,973 passing yards and 925 rushing yards. Pavia rushed for seven touchdowns last year, and I think that number should go up this year as he faces better overall competition.
Additionally, the RPO-driven nature of Tim Beck’s playcalling shouldn’t miss a beat from last season as Beck and Pavia embark on their third season together. Pavia will have a stiff first challenge against Virginia Tech, but his ability to extend plays with his feet could be a thorn in the side for the Hokies.
Last year, the Virginia Tech passing defense was a lockdown unit, finishing fourth in the nation in passing yards allowed with 168.8 per game. The rushing defense was more of a liability, finishing the 2023 campaign ranked 59th in rushing yards allowed with 148.0 per game.
Of note, the Virginia Tech defense gave up 21 rushing touchdowns last year to just 16 passing touchdowns. Given Pavia's speed and experience with the RPO, I think there is a ton of value in him finding the end zone on foot at least once in this game.
I recommend taking Diego Pavia as an anytime touchdown scorer at +140 or better. I also see a lot of value for him to score 2+ touchdowns at a whopping +1400 if you are looking for a higher variance play.
Pick: Diego Pavia Anytime TD (+190) | Play to (+140)
- Maximize your Diego Pavia & Vanderbilt action with our DraftKings promo code.
West Virginia vs. Penn State Player Props
Kaytron Allen 60+ Rush Yards (+105)
By Cody Goggin
Last season, West Virginia struggled to stop the run. The Mountaineers ranked 89th in rushing Success Rate allowed, 92nd in rushing Explosiveness allowed, and 97th in rushing PPA allowed.
Only five starters return for the Mountaineers on this side of the ball, and they will immediately face a tough test as Penn State comes to town.
Penn State was already one of the better rushing teams in the country last season, ranking 16th in rushing Success Rate and 34th in rushing PPA. This year, the Nittany Lions brought over new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas. Last year the Jayhawks ranked the ball at the 13th-highest rate, ranking 22nd in rushing Success Rate and 17th in rushing PPA.
Penn State will have some work to do along the offensive line as they replace four starters, but the Lions bring back their electric backfield duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. These two combined for 1,654 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground a season ago.
These two split the backfield equally most of the time but combined for 23 carries for 121 yards and a touchdown against the Mountaineers in last year’s opener.
They lacked explosiveness in the run game overall last year, but I think Kotelnicki’s schematic changes will take this offense to another level in 2024.
Either of these backs is more than capable, so I don’t mind taking both of their overs, but Allen was the safer option last season. Despite similar workloads, he eclipsed 60+ yards eight times, while Singleton only accomplished this five times.
Pick: Kaytron Allen 60+ Rush Yards (+105) | Play to 60+ (-115)
West Virginia vs. Penn State Player Props
Garrett Greene Under 43.5 Rush Yards (-111)
I would estimate 70-80% of my plays on quarterback rushing totals side with the over. But with every over I lock in, I hold my breath on every drop back. Unlike the NFL, sacks count against your rushing total in college football. And two to three sacks can tank a rushing over.
Which brings us to the Penn State defense. Abdul Carter has moved down from linebacker to edge rusher. He’ll be teaming up with Dani Dennis-Sutton to form one of the best pass-rushing tandems in the country. If they can generate two or more sacks, the math starts working in favor of the under in this spot.
Penn State’s offseason emphasis on the defensive side of the ball was on stopping the run and specifically strengthening the interior of their defensive line. A rotation of Dvon J-Thomas, Zane Durant, Alonzo Ford Jr and Hakeem Beamon brings 1,208 pounds of run support (302-pound average).
Behind them will be captain Kobe King, a middle linebacker who has been quoted as saying that this unit will be buttoned up and better against the run than they were last year.
That’s a bold statement because Penn State led the nation in run defense last fall (75.5 YPG).
West Virginia ran for 146 yards against Penn State last season, and Greene finished with 71. Given that experience, the defense will be locked in on Greene, trying to take away what the Mountaineers like to do best.
The in-game flow is working in our favor — WVU is likely playing catch-up — and I think we could see more pass attempts and fewer carries for Greene this time
Pick: Garrett Greene Under 43.5 Rush Yards (-111) | Play to 41 (-110)
- Sign up using our Caesars Sportsbook promo code to make a Garrett Greene & West Virginia wager.
Ohio vs. Syracuse Player Props
LeQuint Allen Over 95.5 Rush Yards (-115)
By Brett Pund
Coming into the season, I am extremely low on this Ohio team because of all the departures on both sides of the ball. I plan on fading the Bobcats as much as I can early on in the year, and I love how this matchup sets up for LeQuint Allen to have a big day on the ground on Saturday.
If we start first with Ohio’s exodus, Tim Albin’s defense lost three starters along the defensive line and a pair of All-Mid-American Conference linebackers. This leaves the Bobcats needing to replace eight of their top 11 tacklers from last season.
To make matters worse, the program’s defensive coordinator also left in the offseason, joining Memphis. This doesn’t sound like a unit that will be firing on all cylinders in the opener on the road against a Power 4 opponent.
Meanwhile, I love the advantage that the Orange should have on the offensive line. Syracuse returns four starting offensive linemen and adds four transfers with starting experience.
Another plus is that I believe the change in the coaching staff will want to feature Allen. Yes, I understand that the Orange brought in Ohio State transfer quarterback Kyle McCord.
However, the new offensive coordinator was the running backs coach for the New York Giants last season. Once Allen sees his advantages in the trenches, I expect him to chew up yards in bunches to go over the century mark in this one and his player prop.
Pick: LeQuint Allen Over 95.5 Rush Yards (-115) | Play to 98.5 (-110)
Western Kentucky vs. Alabama Player Props
Jalen Milroe Over 38.5 Rush Yards (-114)
By Greg Liodice
This number seems far too generous, so we’re going to take advantage of it.
Jalen Milroe has done much growing in his few years at Alabama. However, the one thing he never needed to work on was running the ball. If all else fails, you can bet that #4 in crimson will use his powerful legs and create opportunities for himself.
Alabama’s new regime will offer a dynamic perspective on the offensive end. Coach Kalen DeBoer had one of the more explosive and efficient offenses last year as the head coach at Washington, and I can fully expect Milroe to benefit from that. But I can also see DeBoer and offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan calling draw plays for Milroe to take advantage of.
If Milroe didn’t have a cannon of an arm, he’d thrive as a running back. He’s as shifty as they come, with the speed of a gazelle. On six separate occasions, he’s reached over 38.5 rushing yards. What’s to stop him from doing it again?
Last season, opponents Western Kentucky did a decent job at stopping the pass. Conversely, its massive downfall included preventing the run, ranking 125th in Success Rate and 105th in PPA.
I see Milroe feasting on the ground and will go as far as playing to -130.
Pick: Jalen Milroe Over 38.5 Rush Yards (-114) | Play to 38.5 (-130)
- Maximize your Jalen Milroe & Alabama action with our FanDuel promo code.
UNLV vs. Houston Player Props
Donovan Smith Over 31.5 Rush Yards (-119)
Willie Fritz takes over as the head coach at Houston and will have dual-threat quarterback Donovan Smith running his offense. Smith rushed for 428 yards with six scores on the ground last season, averaging 35.7 rushing yards per game.
He led Houston with 138 rushing attempts and I don’t expect that to drop off much under Fritz.
In his four seasons at Tulane, Michael Pratt averaged 111.8 rushing attempts per season. He averaged nearly 10 rushing attempts and 25 rushing yards per game, and Pratt is much less athletic than Smith.
The Cougars start the season against a UNLV team that really struggled with allowing big plays. They also ranked just 70th in the country in sacks last season, and now replace half of their defensive line.
Against this Rebels defense last year, we saw them allow 38 rushing yards on just three carries to J.J. McCarthy (Michigan), 115 yards and a touchdown to Brendon Lewis (Nevada), 32 yards on just four carries to Devon Dampier (New Mexico), 69 yards and a touchdown to Andrew Peasley (Wyoming), and 90 yards with two touchdowns to Taylen Green (Boise State).
Smith rushed for at least 32 yards in six of his 12 games last season and he should have a good matchup to use his legs against this UNLV defense.
Pick: Donovan Smith Over 31.5 Rush Yards (-119)
