It’s another exciting fall Saturday in college football, with plenty of high-profile players eager to produce a stat-sheet-stuffing performance.
Our staff is well aware of that, identifying five players in line for a big day in Week 6.
Luckily, there’s a way you can bet on that — the college football player props market.
Read below for our staff’s five favorite player props for Saturday’s slate, including picks for Brady Cook, Cody Schrader, Carson Steele, Garrett Shrader and KJ Jefferson.
Saturday College Football Player Prop Picks
In the table below, you'll find each of our college football staff's top player prop picks from Saturday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
LSU vs. Missouri
Cody Schrader
Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 73.5)
By Cody Goggin
Since Missouri’s bye week last season, they've made it clear they want to feed Cody Schrader the ball.
The Tigers are underdogs at home to LSU this weekend, but they're getting hyped up as an upset bid candidate.
LSU has struggled defensively this season, especially up front. The Bayou Bengals are 110th in Success Rate allowed, 120th in Explosiveness allowed, and 130th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Against the run, LSU ranks 107th in Success Rate allowed and 110th in PPA allowed.
Mizzou has run the ball on 53% of their plays this year, with Schrader getting the bulk of that work. The only two games he didn’t eclipse 66 rushing yards were against Kansas State and Vanderbilt. Kansas State currently ranks first nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed, while Vanderbilt ranks a respectable 49th.
I'm betting LSU will be a step down in competition for the Mizzou rushing attack.
I don’t know whether Mizzou will beat LSU to move to 6-0, but I'm confident Schrader will get plenty of work. The LSU defense can't stop the run, so they won't shut down Schrader unless they drastically change something.
Pick: Cody Schrader Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 73.5)
LSU vs. Missouri
Brady Cook
Over 270.5 Passing Yards (Play to 282.5)
Brady Cook showed flashes down the stretch last season, but it was unclear if he would be “the guy” for Mizzou in 2023.
Fans were growing restless after a pair of ho-hum efforts against South Dakota in a blowout and Middle Tennessee in a seesaw battle.
Then, Cook blew up.
In the past three starts, Cook is averaging 364 yards per game through the air with an immaculate 11:0 TD-INT ratio. He carved up nationally ranked Kansas State for 356 and two scores.
Now, Cook's set to battle the struggling LSU defense.
Brian Kelly’s defense is in freefall. The Bayou Bengals rank 83rd against the pass but are giving up chunk plays left and right. LSU is 121st in Passing Explosiveness allowed. They’ve already given up seven pass plays of 40+ yards, tying them with Vandy for worst in the SEC.
Given the shootout potential for this game, I foresee Cook attempting between 35 and 40 passes. For that reason, I would play this up to 282.5.
Pick: Brady Cook Over 270.5 Passing Yards (Play to 282.5)
Washington State vs. UCLA
Carson Steele
Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 74.5)
By Doug Ziefel
The Bruins should see consistent success running the ball against UCLA.
UCLA has a significant edge up front, outranking Washington State 40th to 70th in Offensive Line Yards.
Additionally, the Cougars haven't excelled at stopping the run, ranking 90th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
So, we turn our attention to UCLA back Carson Steele, who's had no problem crushing this number.
Steele's eclipsed 72 rushing yards in 83.5% of his games as the Bruins' lead back, dating back to the start of last season. That translates to -506 implied odds toward the Over.
He was shut down last week by a Utah defense that controlled the tempo, but Wazzu and UCLA should keep the tempo high, providing Steele with plenty of carries and, hopefully, plenty of success.
Pick: Carson Steele Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 74.5)
Syracuse vs. North Carolina
Garrett Shrader
Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 38.5)
If you’ve watched any Syracuse football over the past three and a half years, you know their 6 foot 4, 225-pound quarterback, Garrett Shrader, loves to run the rock.
His season rushing totals since transferring from Mississippi State read like this: 781 yards in 2021, 444 yards in 2022 and 340 yards through five games in 2023.
That begs the question: why would a guy averaging 68 rushing yards per game have a rushing total set at 33.5?
The answer is surprisingly simple.
In college football, quarterback sacks count as negative rushing yards. Last week against Clemson, Shrader was sacked five times for a total loss of 29 yards. What’s comical is that Shrader still finished the day with 24 total rushing yards, which only makes Shrader’s number for this week even more attractive.
You’re telling me a guy can lose 29 yards and still eclipse the 20-yard mark?
Count me in.
As for the North Carolina defense, the most rushing yards they’ve allowed to an opposing quarterback this season came against Appalachian State, where Joey Aguilar ran for 42 yards on six attempts. That might make this Shrader bet more intimidating, but I would argue that UNC’s defense has yet to face a quarterback as willing and capable of tucking and running as Shrader.
Shrader's five-sack performance and North Carolina's ability to limit pedestrian running backs have prompted the books to spit out a rushing total far too low.
I expect plenty of designed quarterback runs, alongside timely scrambles, for Shrader, resulting in easy cash for us.
Pick: Garrett Shrader Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 38.5)
Arkansas vs. Alabama
KJ Jefferson
Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 38.5)
By Brett Pund
The Rebels have allowed opposing quarterbacks to eclipse 33 rushing yards thrice in five tries this year. That includes Mercer’s Carter Peevy and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King.
KJ Jefferson is a much better athlete and rusher than those two.
We also can’t ignore how important this game is to Jefferson. The Razorback star grew up in Sardis, Mississippi, only 30 minutes from Ole Miss’ campus.
In the last two contests against the Rebels, he's flown over this rushing total, averaging 66 yards per game and adding three touchdowns. Jefferson also amassed six passing touchdowns across the two games.
Despite the turmoil in Arkansas, I don’t believe that Jefferson will let the Hogs roll over, especially with a strong family contingent in the crowd.
I also like this spot for the Razorbacks. Their backs are against the wall, and the Rebels are fresh off a big win over LSU.
This feels like an excellent letdown spot for Ole Miss, and Jefferson should take advantage of the Rebels' weak defense.
