Jets vs Falcons Odds, Prediction
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 33.5 -110o / +110u | +110 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 33.5 -110o / +110u | -130 |
The latest Jets vs. Falcons odds for NFL Week 13 have Atlanta installed as favorites in the range of 1.5 to 2.5 points on the spread with an over/under of 33.5, which is the lowest game total of the entire slate. My NFL pick for this game isn't pretty, backing the underdog Jets.
It is another week of Tim Boyle at quarterback for the Jets, who are in a spiral after a relatively strong start to the season. Aaron Rodgers may be back at practice, but the season is virtually over for the Jets unless they literally win out.
Meanwhile, the Falcons aren’t having a much better season. However, they play in the lowly NFC South, so their record of 5-6 is good enough for first place. This is a huge game for Atlanta to stay at the top as the Saints have an identical record, but the New York defense should present some real problems, which plays into my Jets vs. Falcons prediction.
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Jets vs Falcons Pick
Jets vs. Falcons
Matchup Analysis
This will likely be the ugliest game of the weekend. The total is down to 34, which makes sense as both teams are outside the top 25 in overall DVOA. The Jets are 27th, just one spot behind the Falcons. In terms of offensive DVOA, New York is dead last at 32nd, though its defense is on the other end of the spectrum at fourth.
The story of the Jets’ season has been whether they can score a couple of touchdowns to supplement their elite defense. They managed to tread water for a while, but it's been a disaster the past few weeks. Since their win over the Eagles, the Jets have scored three offensive touchdowns in 20 quarters, with one of those coming in supreme garbage time last week against the Dolphins.
The pivot to Tim Boyle at quarterback unsurprisingly failed to move the needle. Despite Zach Wilson’s historically poor play, it's possible Boyle is actually a downgrade as he has never played an NFL — or even collegiate — game that shows he belongs on the field. Waiting in the wings is Trevor Siemian, who would be a considerable upgrade for the Jets.
Early in the season, the Jets were a pretty strong rushing team with Breece Hall looking like one of the elite backs in the league. However, their offensive line injuries have been detrimental, along with defenses blatantly disrespecting their inability to throw.
However, this Falcons defense has been bad, particularly against the pass. They rank 29th in passing defense DVOA and do not have the luxury of leaving a cornerback in single coverage to focus on the run.
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Offensively, it should be a struggle for Desmond Ridder against the Jets’ vaunted pass rush and secondary. The fact that the Jets are still in the top five in defensive DVOA despite having to spend so much time on the field is wildly impressive. However, they have been much better against the pass than against the run.
That's good news for the Falcons, who still operate a run-first offense. If I'm Arthur Smith, I would run the ball on every single play, punt the ball deep and wait for the Jets offense to turn the ball over. Expect an incredibly conservative game plan from the Falcons to limit Ridder's turnovers.
If Ridder magically eliminated his turnovers, he would be a pretty serviceable quarterback. He has 14 turnovers this season, and they have been a near-equal balance of fumbles and interceptions.
This is the one thing you can’t do against the New York Jets. It is hard to trust Ridder in this spot when he has performed so much better at home and as an underdog. As a road favorite against a dominant defense, it is hard to trust laying points with Ridder.
Jets vs. Falcons
Betting Picks & Predictions
Despite hitting rock bottom, getting the Jets as home underdogs against Ridder is hard to pass up. They should be dominant defensively and force turnovers against the second-year quarterback.
Offensively, they should feed Hall on the ground and Wilson through the air, and a potential mid-game quarterback change to Siemian could give them a bit of a boost.
I would play the Jets down to anywhere as an underdog.
