We begin Week 5 by making Bears vs. Commanders picks for Thursday Night Football.
Our staff of betting analysts has identified four picks it's on for tonight's matchup, with one bet on the total and three player props.
Get the latest Bears vs. Commanders odds then dig into our favorite Thursday Night Football picks.
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -270 |
Bears vs Commanders Picks, Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
 | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. Odds will be included for ESPNBET once the sportsbook goes live. | ||
Bears vs. Commanders
If this game was played on Sunday instead of on a short week, the total would be closer to 47.
The Bears have given up 25+ points in 14 straight games dating back to last season. The Chicago defense is decimated by injuries in the secondary and averages less than one sack per game.
The unit is 31st in yards per play allowed and total defensive DVOA through four weeks. Sam Howell struggles to manage the pocket and takes too many sacks, but in this game, he should be quite comfortable delivering the ball downfield.
The Commanders defense, while better than the Bears', has given up 30+ points in their last three games. Their best performance of the season was limiting the Cardinals to 20 points back in Week 1.
If Justin Fields can carry over some confidence from his career-best passing performance against a defense that ranks 28th in pass rush win rate, this game will play out similarly to just about every game each of these teams has played thus far.
The Bears have yet to see one of their games go under the total this season, and despite primetime unders cashing at an incredibly high rate, we are getting a great value playing this below the key number of 45.
Bears vs. Commanders
While the Commanders being favored doesn't bode well for Howell’s rushing potential, this line is still too low.
We only have a five-game sample size for Howell as a starter, but in that time, he hasn't had fewer than 11 rushing yards (averaging 23.4 YPG), and he has hit the over at this number in three of them.
The Bears have one of the worst defenses in the league, and I'm going to be surprised if Howell doesn't take off on the ground several times.
I would hit this line all the way to 15.5 yards in this spot.
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Bears vs. Commanders
By Matt Trebby
Khalil Herbert took over the Bears' backfield in Week 4, featuring on 78% of Chicago’s offensive plays in the loss to the Broncos.
This came as a surprise since rookie Roschon Johnson saw his snap percentage increase in each of the first three weeks to 45%, only to plummet to 22% on Sunday.
Two props for Herbert stand out: rush attempts and receiving yards.
I’m hesitant to bet on Herbert’s rush attempts because he has only gone over the 11.5 total once this season, and he may not see 78% of snaps on a short week with a capable RB in Johnson behind him. Herbert was extremely effective, though, averaging 5.7 yards per carry on 18 totes.
Instead, I’m going to take over 11.5 receiving yards (-120, BetMGM).
Herbert has gone over this total in three of four games. He’s seen at least three targets in four games, which would be enough for him to hit this over.
Herbert has caught 10-of-15 targets this season for 8.3 yards per reception. With a negative average depth of target, it’s reasonable to assume that 67% catch rate is sustainable. So, multiple catches should lead us to a win on this prop.
Pick: Khalil Herbert Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Bears vs. Commanders
By Cody Goggin
This one may seem a bit off the wall, but I believe that targeting Bears pass rushers may be a good move. On the season, Chicago has not had much of a pass rush at all, ranking 20th in pass rush win rate and 32nd in Pro Football Focus' (PFF) pass rushing grade. However, Washington will be the easiest task that the Bears have faced yet.
Of the four opponents that Chicago has faced this season, three rank in the top 10 in pass block win rate this season. The lone team that doesn’t was Tampa Bay, which ranks 17th. These teams also all rank above Washington in PFF's pass-blocking grade.
Against Tampa Bay, the Bears had 22 pressures, according to PFF, which was its most of the season by far. While the Bears weren’t able to convert any of these into sacks, I believe that the underlying metrics are far more telling.
Sam Howell has carried over many of the same traits to the NFL that he showed on his college tape. One of these unfortunate habits that he brought along is his propensity to take sacks.
This was a recurring theme at North Carolina, mixed in with his flashes of brilliance. In Howell’s three years under center, he ranked fourth, first and first in FBS in terms of sacks on pressures that were attributed to him per PFF. For total sacks in general, he had rankings of sixth, third and second in these three years.
This has carried over to the NFL. Howell has already been sacked a league-leading 24 times this year. At his current pace, Howell would shatter the single-season record of 76 as Howell is on pace for 102 sacks taken. Eight of these sacks can be attributed to Howell’s own allowed pressure, which is three more than anyone else in the league.
Yannick Ngakoue is not a top-tier rusher in the league, but he has shown flashes in his career. Ngakoue is getting ample playing time on this Chicago defense now and leads the team in pressures with 14. He has converted these into only one sack on the year, which I believe suppresses his line.
I would bet on Ngakoue being able to convert just one of his pressures into one-half sack on the oft-sacked Howell. You can get this at +110 right now at DraftKings, but I'd take this down to +100.
