Bills vs. Bengals primetime in Cincinnati last year will forever be a game setting entrenched in history. Not enough can be said about the medical staff’s immediate reaction in treating Damar Hamlin. That will always be a moment that haunts this matchup.
It felt wrong to start any analysis of this game without acknowledging that moment and Hamlin’s resolution to continue his career.
Turning to our same-game parlay, this game is looking like one the Bengals will control, similar to last year's playoffs. Cincinnati is hitting its stride, while Buffalo has dipped from its dominant start.
Between each team’s recent performances and Cincinnati’s knack for showing up in big games, it seems the Bengals are in the catbird seat heading into this game.
Bills vs. Bengals Same Game Parlay
The Parlay (odds via FanDuel) (+1030)
- Alt Total: Over 48.5
- Tee Higgins 5+ Receptions
- Khalil Shakir Over 2.5 Receptions
- Alt Spread: Bengals -3.5
Over 48.5
Cincinnati has won three straight and its most-recent victory was a two-touchdown win over the 49ers. However, the biggest takeaway from that game was Joe Burrow’s return to form as he completed 28-of-32 passes for a 134.8 passer rating. Burrow even flashed some mobility as he carried the ball six times for 43 yards. The Bengals' offense seems to be back in full swing and the AFC should be on alert.
On the other hand, the Bills look like they are starting to pick their offense back up after a couple of rough weeks. The points scored may not reflect it, but a switch took place against Tampa Bay. Buffalo pivoted to utilizing shorter, quick-hitting throws and it paid off. Josh Allen averaged 6.0 intended air yards per pass, per Pro Football Reference. The result was Buffalo's second-most pass yards on the season.
These teams both have electric playmakers, efficient quarterbacks and pass-heavy offenses. As a result, the over seems like an excellent play in what could be our most exciting primetime game of the year.
Tee Higgins 5+ Receptions
If these teams are throwing and scoring, someone has to be catching the passes. Last year, Higgins was under this mark just four times in the regular season. This season has been much worse, but between Higgins suffering broken ribs and Burrow fighting through an injury, the statistical woes are easily explainable.
The Bills traded for Rasul Douglas to help their weakest unit. The good news for Higgins is that Douglas will likely line up across from Cincinnati's number one receiver, Ja’Marr Chase. That leaves the Bengals' big possession receiver against Dane Jackson, PFF’s 58th-graded corner — an absolute smash spot.
Khalil Shakir Over 2.5 Receptions
In limited opportunities, Shakir has played well. He is PFF’s 24th-ranked receiver and has caught 14-of-15 targets. More importantly, the transition to a quick pass offense plays into Shakir’s skillset. In the past two games, Shakir's targets have jumped to an average of five per game. Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs rightfully draw most of the defense's attention. That means Shakir will be given opportunities in favorable matchups. I was hoping for 4+ catches, but that line wasn't available at FanDuel.
Alt Spread: Bengals -3.5
Our script has the pace of this game being set by a productive Bengals' offense with the Bills playing catchup. So, it's only fitting that we take the Bengals to win and cover. I juiced the spread to get the odds I wanted, but adjust as you see fit.
The Bengals' defense has struggled with per-play efficiency, but has made up for it with turnovers. Cincinnati ranks 28th in net yards per pass allowed and 30th in yards per carry allowed. However, the Bengals are fourth in turnovers forced and lead the league in interceptions per game. That should cause problems against Allen and his gunslinger style of play. Allen already has eight interceptions on the season.
In a high-scoring game filled with tons of passing volume, there are more chances for mistakes to be made. We saw Burrow thrive in a high-volume, short-area passing attack against an elite defense last week. So, if I’m betting on one quarterback to make a mistake that costs his team the game, I’m betting on Allen.
If this last leg could have been Allen 1+ interceptions, I would have preferred that route. Check with your book to see if that is an option!
