Bills vs Chiefs Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of Michael Crosson's Bills vs Chiefs player props, including picks for Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Rashee Rice. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific prop discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Bills vs. Chiefs
Josh Allen
Over 0.5 Interceptions (-143)
In the grand scheme of things, Buffalo has arguably been the biggest disappointment in the AFC this season. After opening with the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl (only behind K.C.), the Bills own a record of 6-6, and there’s a very real chance they could miss the playoffs entirely as they find themselves in a three-way tie for ninth place in the conference standings entering Week 14.
Weirdly enough, Buffalo has still managed to post solid numbers in most statistical departments. The Bills rank top five in scoring on both sides of the ball, currently averaging 27.3 points scored and 18.9 points allowed per game. They also rank fourth in yards gained per game and 12th in yards allowed.
However, Buffalo’s fall to mediocrity is a glaring example of how crucial it is to win the turnover battle, regardless of overall talent level. The Bills rank 24th in giveaways per game, and the blame for their turnover woes primarily fall on the shoulders of superstar QB Josh Allen, who’s thrown seven interceptions and lost two fumbles in the last six games.
Very few things have remained consistent for Buffalo throughout the season. However, Allen turning the ball over at least one time in the passing game is as close to a sure thing as it gets with this team.
Allen has thrown an interception in eight straight contests, and he’s thrown a pick in 10-of-12 games on the season. I’m backing Allen to keep his INT streak alive.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions (-143)
Bills vs. Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105)
Kansas City hasn’t been quite as disappointing as Buffalo, but I’m not letting them off the hook either.
The Chiefs are far less dominant than the team we’ve seen in recent years despite wielding the best defense of the Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs offense ranks 11th in scoring and eighth in total yardage, which is a huge step down from ranking top six in both in five straight campaigns prior to this season.
Kansas City has several flaws at the moment, highlighted by the Chiefs posting losses in three of their last five games while generating 21 points or fewer on offense in four of those contests. However, the Chiefs' biggest issue seems to be their pass-catchers’ inability to create separation and make big plays downfield, which has led to Mahomes forcing lots of throws into heavy coverage out of necessity.
Mahomes has thrown an interception in five of his last seven games, and he’s been picked off four times in his last three matchups against Buffalo. I believe we’re destined to see both QBs throw an INT in this matchup – and this is great value at plus money.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105)
Bills vs. Chiefs
Rashee Rice
Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
To put it nicely, Kansas City’s pass-catchers have been incredibly underwhelming — aside from Travis Kelce. Kelce leads the Chiefs in receptions by a 22-catch margin with 74 despite participating in only 11-of-12 games.
However, Kansas City’s one-man show in the receiving game has been surprisingly quiet since the midway point of the season. Kelce has fallen short of 60 receiving yards in three of his last five outings, which, in turn, has helped rookie WR Rashee Rice carve out a significant role.
After tallying fewer than 35 receiving yards in four of five contests to open his professional campaign, Rice and Mahomes have quickly formed chemistry over the last few weeks — the rookie wideout enters Sunday with performances of 56-plus receiving yards in five of his last seven games.
Rice’s numbers haven’t jumped off the stat sheet until recently, but it’s becoming more evident that he’s the best perimeter threat on the Chiefs and that Mahomes is finally warming up to that notion.
Rice has reeled in eight-plus receptions on nine-plus targets in back-to-back games while clearing the 60-yard receiving mark in both affairs. I’ll back Rice to keep it going this week.
